Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Wild Card NFL Betting Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) will attempt to win their first home playoff game since 1993 when they host the Tennessee Titans (9-7) on Saturday as big home favorites. The Chiefs have dropped 10 of their last 11 games during the postseason both straight up and against the spread, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with the lone victory coming two years ago on the road.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.6-17.3 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Titans can cover the spread

While the Titans have lost their last three playoff games, two were decided by just a field goal, and they have not given up more than 17 points in their previous four postseason games. All took place during the Jeff Fisher era, but current head coach Mike Mularkey has also kept Tennessee competitive lately despite some struggles.

The Titans enter the playoffs dropping three of their last four games overall, although the three losses were all decided by five points or less. They have covered three straight.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City rides a four-game winning streak into the postseason and seems to be playing like it did early on during a 5-0 start. Three of the games were decided by double digits, and the Chiefs even picked up a 27-24 road victory as underdogs in their regular-season finale with rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes under center.

Kansas City will rely on veteran quarterback Alex Smith and rookie running back Kareem Hunt here offensively while looking to pressure Tennessee signal-caller Marcus Mariota. That bodes well for the Chiefs, as Mariota has yet to prove he can play well under stress.

Smart pick

The Titans have been involved in a lot of close games recently, with only two of their last 10 decided by more than five points. They will be able to stay within striking distance of Kansas City for most of the game, even without injured running back DeMarco Murray (knee) who has now been ruled out.

Former Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry is a viable replacement and will help Tennessee cover in this spot.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in five of the Titans' last seven games against the Chiefs.

The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in the playoffs as favorites.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.