(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
On Saturday, Indiana (4-3, 1-2) visits Northwestern (4-3, 1-2) in what will likely amount to be a game that is essential for both teams' fading bowl hopes in this 2009 season.
The Hoosiers are coming off a home win over hapless-looking Illinois, while the Wildcats are looking to rebound from a loss against Michigan State, which was yet another game they let get away from them in the second half (NU had a second-half lead in each of its three losses this season).
After this game, both teams face very similar schedules, with the ranked trio of Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin on tap for both squads down the stretch of the regular season.
Both NU and IU do have one winnable game left on the slate, though (Illinois for NU and Purdue for IU), making this game that much more important to reach a bowl-eligible 6-6 record.
The Wildcats will also be looking to avenge last year's loss in Bloomington that likely kept NU out of a Jan. 1 bowl game as IU upset the 'Cats 21-19 on a day that saw both QB CJ Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton go down with injuries.
Northwestern does have an all-time 42-34-1 edge over Indiana (the only Big Ten opponent that NU holds an all-time winning record over), but the last five contests have been decided by an average of just 4.4 points per game.
Despite last week's loss, NU's defense has been solid since coming alive in the second quarter of the Purdue game, allowing just 12 points per game from the second quarter of that game onwards.
Against MSU, NU's defense held up well outside of a few long passing plays, ironically the same type of performance that doomed the 'Cats against the Hoosiers last year (two long TD passes and a short touchdown following a fumbled kickoff).
Indiana, meanwhile, started the year off strong at 3-0, albeit against lesser competition, before falling to Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks. Then, the bottom fell out against Virginia in a 47-7 loss before finding some redemption against a reeling Illini squad a week ago.
IU's QB Ben Chappell is the reigning Big Ten offensive player of the week following his 333-yard, three TD performance last week. The 'Cats know how dangerous he can be, as he engineered Indiana's upset win last year. On the year, he's thrown for 1,664 yards, eight TDs, seven INTs, and sports a 63.4% completion rate.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, will try to counter with its biggest offensive weapon, QB Mike Kafka, who has 1,755 yards on the season along with seven passing TDs to just four INTs (he has also added four TDs rushing).
Despite having some costly turnovers in NU losses to Syracuse and Minnesota, he has seemingly turned the corner, putting together an efficient and turnover-free performance one week ago.
Based on the recent history in this series and the fact that both teams will be playing for their bowl hopes, expect an evenly-matched and hard-fought game in Northwestern's homecoming football game.
Opening Line: Northwestern by five.
Who Should Win
Northwestern. The 'Cats have been playing better defense of late and have demonstrated an ability to contain the run, an important fact when facing a team whose top two rushers are averaging a collective 4.8 yards per carry.
And despite not being able to "dink and dunk" their way to victory against MSU last week, the 'Cats have enough offensive weapons in the passing game to get the job done against the nation's 87th ranked pass defense (in terms of yards). Having this game in Evanston also gives the 'Cats a boost.
Upset Factor
Just look at last year, when Indiana surprised NU in their 2008 homecoming game thanks to a plus five turnover margin and some big plays (TD passes of 43 and 28 yards).
The Hoosiers have offensive weapons at the skill positions (WRs Tandon Doss and Damarlo Belcher along with RBs Darius Willis and Demetrius McCray) and have some bona-fide next level talent on the DL with Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton, who have combined for an insane 8.5 sacks and six forced fumbles just over half way through this season.
As demonstrated in last year's game, all it takes is a handful of big plays to tip the scales in one's favor.
What to Look for
Northwestern Offense / Indiana Defense
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