2018 NBA Draft: Players Already Improving Their Stock
Enough college basketball has been played for scouts to have updated thoughts on NBA prospects.
The No. 1 overall conversation sounds different from what we heard before the season. And there are a handful of new names being discussed who weren't on the radar back in October.ย
We're finding out that a few freshmen are better than initially expected, and that a handful of upperclassmen made intriguing adjustments during the offseason.
The following prospects look more attractive than they did just one month ago.
Deandre Ayton (Arizona, C, Freshman)
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Current draft projection: No. 1
The narrative is changing from Deandre Ayton, potential top-five pick, to Ayton, the biggest threat to Slovenia's Luka Doncic in the No. 1 overall discussion.
Duke's Marvin Bagley III and Missouri's Michael Porter Jr. were originally the popular answers from scouts when asked about the nation's top prospect. But Ayton appears to be in the process of leap-frogging both.
Averaging 20.3 points on 62.3 percent shooting, he's surprised with his skill level and ability to dominate offensively. More than just a spectacular athlete, Ayton has given Arizona an option to feature in the half court, where he can create and score against set defenses.
His 1.06 points per possessions on post-ups (86th percentile) and 1.385 PPP out of isolation (97th percentile) are both considered excellent by Synergy Sports.
With his back to the basket, Ayton has shown the footwork to get a quality shot and the one-handed touch and control to convert at a high rate. He's also hit six threes, working as a spot-up or pick-and-pop option, and he's 8-of-14 shooting from 17 feet out to the arc, where he'll face up, rise and fire over the top of his man.
The only worrisome question with Ayton revolves around his defensive instincts and motor. He's blocking shots at a disappointing rate (1.3 per game), and he hasn't looked overly instinctive when it comes to rim protection or pick-and-roll reads.
But as one scout rhetorically asked: "If you knew Ayton would be the next Karl-Anthony Towns, wouldn't you still take him No. 1?"
As long as he continues to score inside and out, and his 250-pound frame and 7'5 ยฝ" wingspan don't magically shrink, Ayton looks poised to make a case as the draft's top prospect by June.
Trae Young (Oklahoma, PG, Freshman)
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Current draft projection: Lottery
On pace to shatter records, Trae Young has emerged as the top breakout story in college basketball. Now the questions are whether his unprecedented success will continue into conference play and if it can eventually translate at the NBA level.ย
"I need to see him in Big 12 play, but the numbers are speaking for themselves, and also, the team is winning," an optimistic NBA exec told Bleacher Report.
After finishing with a historic 26 points and 22 assists against Northwestern State on Tuesday night, Young leads the nation in both scoring and dishing, demonstrating an elite skill level in both departments.
Young makes 3.6 threes per game, ranks in the 95th percentile in isolation offense and averages 1.5 points per possession on runners, the fourth-highest in the country. He's flashed range beyond the NBA's arc, as well as the ability to shoot off the dribble (1.136 PPP, 88th percentile) with abrupt pull-ups and sneaky step-backs.
He's also been highly productive as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (41.5 percent of offense), averaging .991 PPP on those possessions. Between his stop-and-pop game, passing IQ and shiftiness, NBA teams will undoubtedly covet his ball-screen offense.
However, at 6'2", 180 pounds without long arms or explosiveness, questions about his potential to execute against NBA defenders will stick through January. Some scouts expressed hesitation this early before calling him a top NBA prospect.
Still, Young wasn't considered a one-and-done talent entering the season, mostly due to suspect tools and athleticism that failed the eye test. He's now one of the fastest-rising names in the draft discussion and potentially the No. 1 point guard.
Upcoming matchups against West Virginia, Kansas and Alabama could determine how high he soars up boards.
Mikal Bridges (Villanova, SF, Junior)
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Current draft projection: Late lottery to mid-first round
Mikal Bridges is making the jump that some predicted he'd make last year. A standout through two seasons at Villanova for his defense, the 6'6" junior wing is capitalizing on the extra scoring chances Josh Hart left behind.
Bridges is attempting 4.9 more shots per game than last year while playing just 1.1 minutes longer. He's raised his scoring average to 17.1 from 9.8, and he's still converting at 58.2 percent clip inside the arc.
The major development has been the three-ball, which he's knocking down at double the rate as last season. Making 3.2 triples per 40 minutes (up from 1.6) and 55.6 percent of his guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers in the half court,ย Bridges has established himself as a knockdown threat, strengthening his image as a three-and-D wing.
Though still not a playmaker (2.2 assists per 40) or scorer who can create his own shot (isolation, 4.5 percent of offense), Bridges has an obvious understanding of his role, only taking quality looks (52.8 percent FG) or whatever the defense gives him (10.7 turnover percentage). Oozing positive energy, he ranks No. 4 in the country in box plus-minus, per Sports-Reference.com.
Averaging 2.1 steals and 1.4 blocks, showing the ability to make plays on the ball and guard multiple positions, Bridges continues to build a case as the draft's top perimeter defender. But it's the improved offense and shot-making that's creating buzz among scouts in the NBA draft discussion.
Khyri Thomas (Creighton, SG, Junior)
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Current draft projection: Mid-to-late first round
Off the radar in October, Khyri Thomas has emerged as a potential first-round name for his shooting, defense and overall efficiency.
He's kicked his offense up a notch, becoming tougher inside the arc and more dangerous behind it, making two three-pointers per game at a 43.6 percent clip. Thomas may be undersized for a traditional NBA 2-guard, but he's athletic with length, a 210-pound frame and jump shot. He's also shooting 61.1 percent on two-pointers.
Pressure defense remains the first strength scouts mention when explaining the draw to Thomas, who's quick, long and tough. But he's starting to earn more attention now that he packs a stronger scoring punch.
Thomas' play-type distribution seems to paint an accurate picture of his projected NBA role, with 29.6 percent of his offense coming in transition, 27.7 percent out of spot-up situations and 15.1 percent as a pick-and-roll ball-handler.
Scouts are warming up to the idea of Thomas' potential at the next level thanks to his three-and-D ability, fast-break offense and secondary ball-screen playmaking.
Daniel Gafford (Arkansas, C, Freshman)
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Currenet draft projection: Late-first round in 2018, mid-first round in 2019
Though not viewed as an obvious one-and-done freshman, Daniel Gafford has at least found the radar, earning recognition with constant activity and productivity around the rim.
He's not completely out of nowhere, being Scout.com's No. 37-ranked recruit. At 6'11", 234 pounds, Gafford has excellent size, athleticism and motor. That has translated into easy baskets and resulted in a 69.4 percent field-goal clip.
But he's also shown some wiggle and dexterity working out of the post, where he's 14-of-23 on the season, per Synergy Sports.
Blocking four shots and averaging 7.2 fouls per 40 minutes, Gafford has both exciting defensive potential but also plenty to learn.
He drew attention for finishing with 25 points against Fresno State in November, and then he moved the needle by going for 16 points, seven rebounds and six blocks in 21 minutes in a win over Minnesota, a team with two of the most productive veteran bigs in the country (Jordan Murphy, Reggie Lynch).
Playing 19.8 minutes per game, it's early to come to any conclusions on Gafford's immediate draft outlook and projection. But he's made himself worth tracking once conference play starts.
Jalen Hudson (Florida, SG, Junior)
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Current draft projection: Late first to second round
We see upperclassmen break out from nowhere onto the NBA radar every year. Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White, Semi Ojeleye and Wesley Iwundu were just a few last season.
Jalen Hudson has been the surprise veteran riser this season, considering he sat out in 2016-17 after transferring from Virginia Tech, where he averaged 8.4 points per game before arriving at Florida.
The draw to Hudson has been obvious, with the 6'6" 2-guard converting 43.5 percent of his 6.3 three-point attempts per game. He's been one of the country's top shooters, ranking in the 92nd percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers and the 93rd percentile on jumpers off the dribble.
But we've also seen Hudson generate offense as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (1.263 PPP, 22.2 percent of offense), albeit mainly for himself.ย
He's been his best against Florida's toughest opponents, having gone for 35 points in a win over Gonzaga, 24 points in a tight loss to Duke and 17 points on eight shots in a win against Cincinnati. Hudson isn't a playmaker or passer, but his blend of tools, athleticism and elite shot-making is drawing attention.
Jalen Brunson (Villanova, PG, Junior)
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Current draft projection: Second round
Considered one of the top point guards in college basketball entering the season, Jalen Brunson is finally gaining steam within the NBA draft discussion.
It's getting easier to overlook the concerns tied to his lack of speed and athleticism. As a high-IQ passer who's totaled 53 assists to just 13 turnovers, Brunson has also taken his scoring too another level, averaging 24.5 points per 40 minutes, up from 18.9.
He ranks in the 96th percentile or better in each major guard category: pick-and-roll ball-handling, transition, spot-up and isolation. And he's shooting an elite 61.1 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers and 56.1 percent on jumpers off the dribble.ย
It's still fair to question how well he'll defend NBA point guards, and if he'll be able to blow by them and finish at the rim. A perceived low ceiling may keep him from drawing first-round consideration.
But as a second-round option, Brunson has too much going for him to nitpick at deficiencies that enough current pro guards have gotten away with. Leading America's No. 1 team, scoring and passing with extreme efficiency and effectiveness, Brunson is building a case as a pro game-manager or backup.
Chandler Hutchison (Boise State, SF, Senior)
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Current draft projection:ย Second round
Chandler Hutchison is earning attention for his athleticism, scoring and expanding versatility.
He's still a jump shot away, averaging fewer than one three-point make per game. But stories like Kyle Kuzma's create hope.ย Hutchison can convert from outside, having hit a triple in five straight games. The consistency just hasn't clicked yet.
Otherwise, the 6'7" forward is opening eyes with his face-up scoring, playmaking and rebounding, being one of two players in the country averaging at least 15 points, four assists and eight boards, per Sports-Reference.com.ย Hutchison can be a tough cover in space, capable of putting the ball on the floor and either setting up a teammate or finishing off one foot.
To crack the first round, he'll likely have to convince scouts his jumper is better than the numbers suggest, whether it's during the rest of the season or at the combine and workouts. As of now, he's looking like an enticing second-round flier with upside that's tied to his shooting development.
Jevon Carter (West Virginia, PG, Senior)
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Current draft projection:ย Second round
Age will always work against Jevon Carter, who'd be a 23-year-old rookie next season. He's at least put himself in the second-round discussion as a senior, having one of the more impressive seasons of any player in the country.
Carter doesn't have much room for error, being one of the older prospects and weaker athletes. But he's now making 41.9 percent of his threes, and he's raised his assist percentage to 31.8 percent (from 20.5 percent) while leading the nation in steals.
Averaging 18.9 points, 5.8 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 3.7 steals, West Virginia's leader is filling it up, looking more dangerous with the ball and just as overwhelming defending it.
As a no-brainer name to mention when addressing the country's top perimeter defenders, Carter willย have the chance to strengthen his case further in key matchups against Trae Young and Kansas' Devonte' Graham.
Advanced stats courtesy ofย Synergy Sports Technologyย unless otherwise noted.
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