Formula One: 10 Predictions for 2010

(Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)

As the Formula One World Championship prepares to run its final race of the season in Abu Dhabi, many are already looking ahead to a 2010 season that is sure to shake up the F1 order in surprising ways. Here are ten predictions for the 2010 season.

1. Refuelling Ban Will Make for Processional Races

Since 2005, race-day fuel loads have added considerable drama to the sport. While qualifying has seen many a gamble between an advantageous long first stint and a lightly-fuelled run to pole, strategies have affected the outcome of many a race since the era of refuelling in Formula One.

However, all that will change in 2010, as refuelling will be banned during races. Only short stops for tires become necessary.

Although a ban on refuelling in the '80s and early '90s made for a series of memorable races, it was also true that little action occurred outside of battles at the front between legendary drivers such as Piquet, Mansell, Prost, Senna, etc.

While that is all well and good, the hot-button issue for years has been overtaking, and it remains to be seen if the refuelling ban will help or hinder in that regard.

2. Parity: Blessing or Curse?

A recent article on the Planet-F1 website made an interesting point: In recent races, the parity seen between any car besides a Brawn or Red Bull has had the effect of actually decreasing overtaking. Although most of the teams are very close, it has played out that a following car may lack that extra tenth or so required to make a pass stick.

I believe that with the 2010 regulations, we will see many occurrences of this phenomenon. With the aero regulations staying more or less the same in 2010, it is likely we will see the teams evening out even more. However, the overtaking issue brings me to my next point...

3. KERS Will Be Missed in 2010

Few topics have been more discussed this season than the introduction of the Kinetic Energy Recovery System (KERS) into Formula One. At the season's start, KERS held the promise of spicing up races, allowing for more overtaking and a strategy all its own.

The hybrid technology allows cars to store energy lost under braking and convert it to an approximately 80 hp boost for six seconds per lap. However, concerns over reliability, safety, and handling tradeoffs have raised the question of whether or not KERS is a blessing or a curse (no pun intended).

While Ferrari, McLaren, BMW, and Renault all started the season with the device, and Toyota, Red Bull, Williams, and Force India announcing plans to introduce KERS mid-season, only Ferrari and McLaren have continued to use it throughout the season.

There is no doubt that KERS has injected a measure of excitement into the season; the Renault drivers' good use of it in the early races, Kimi Raikkonen's KERS-boosted battle with Giancarlo Fisichella for nearly the entirety of the Belgian Grand Prix, and Lewis Hamilton's fantastic start at the Nurburgring have all been notable examples of the benefits of KERS.

However, with the system set to be dropped by mutual agreement in 2010 with the possibility of reintroduction in 2011, I believe Formula One will lose a great source of potential excitement.

As mentioned in my last point, many of the teams are now so close that tenths of a second make all the difference in the outcome of a race, and overtaking has actually become more difficult. Widespread use of KERS would almost certainly erase this issue and make for more great racing. One can only hope for a re-introduction in 2011.

4. Eight Drivers Will Challenge for the 2010 Championship

Lewis Hamilton was quoted this past week as saying that the 2010 season will feature "the best drivers in the best cars" (Autosport), and with the way the driver market is playing out, he does not appear to be far off.

Though both teams suffered dismal starts to the 2009 season, Ferrari and McLaren have both bounced back admirably. McLaren's midseason turnaround will likely go down as one of the greatest in Formula One history.

While Brawn GP and Red Bull Racing have established themselves as the dominant forces in 2009, Ferrari and McLaren have come back to challenge, both teams taking race wins in the second half of the season.

It appears that Formula One is set for a four-team fight next season.

Felipe Massa will be anxious to show that he is still a capable championship challenger, and he will have to be to fight off Fernando Alonso, his incoming teammate at Ferrari.

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