The World Cup Favourites' Worst Possible Draws
The world will stop on Friday at around 3 p.m. GMT for one of the most prestigious and highly anticipated events in global football: the FIFA World Cup group-stage draw.
The 32 competing sides, spanning five continental qualification zones will find out if Lady Luck has decided to smile upon them—or turned the other cheek.
Eight groups of four will be drawn using the four pre-determined pots. Hosts Russia occupy Group A; the remaining seven top seeds will be split out accordingly...and then the fun really starts.
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We've taken the eight favourites to lift the World Cup, as listed by OddsShark, and played out their worst possible group-draw scenarios. It could be based on a poor historical record, a bad tactical matchup or just the outright strength of the opponents.
Germany
Be prepared for a regular theme here: Spain are the NIGHTMARE draw for any top seed—note the bold font, capital letters and underlining.
Even tournament favourites Germany would hate to face them; the 2010 World Cup winners are one of the five best teams heading to the World Cup, and there isn't a lot to pick between that quintet.
That would place two UEFA sides together, so from pots three and four we have to go further afield.
Die Mannschaft don't seem much troubled by defensive, low-block teams—they played five of them in qualifying and battered them all to the tune of 43 goals—but a team with two strong wing threats could take advantage of a slightly questionable full-back situation. In Sadio Mane and Balde Keita, Senegal offer this.
Completing the group is Japan, the de facto strongest overall AFC side.
Germany, Spain, Senegal, Japan
Brazil
Like Germany, Brazil aren't a team who really struggle when coming up against sides who sit in and counter. They have lock-breakers across the side and boast one of the world's best three players in Neymar.
That means the thing they should fear most is teams who have genuine creative weapons; those who have their own versions of Philippe Coutinho and Neymar.
Spain, as discussed, are the worst possible draw from pot two and even the Selecao will struggle to slow up David Silva, Isco and Thiago Alcantara, and Christian Eriksen's Denmark are a nasty surprise from pot three.
No team in pot four will scare Brazil, but Nigeria have the most potent offensive weapons of the lot.
Brazil, Spain, Denmark, Nigeria
France
The odds place France just ahead of Spain in the early stakes for the World Cup, but there's a good argument La Furia Roja—a seemingly much more settled team—are better and could best Les Bleus.
Qualifying also produced a worrying trend: an inability to beat minnow sides. Goalless draws against Luxembourg and Belarus had the world scratching their heads, and they also lost to Sweden (2-1) and scraped past Bulgaria (1-0, thanks to a third-minute Blaise Matuidi goal).
Complacency is at play here, and the pressure of living up to the team's true star billing is a factor. The best thing that can happen to Les Bleus is to be drawn into the Group of Death; it will motivate them to start fast. The worst? Spain plus two teams they should be beating with ease.
In particular, Morocco seem an obvious banana skin. They rarely concede and will make life tough, plus the motivational factor is big: There will be a number of the Atlas Lions' squad who were born in France, could have played for Les Bleus if deemed good enough or represented them at youth level.
France, Spain, Iran, Morocco
Spain
From their position in pot two, Spain can draw any of pot one. Whoever they land will consider themselves exceptionally unfortunate.
La Furia Roja likely won't be too fussed if they are given Poland or Russia; they're the weakest of the top seeds. Belgium is a also rough task on paper, but on the pitch it's a different story. Any of the remaining five would cause a few grimaces, though.
Drawing a European team would lock the likes of Denmark, Sweden and Serbia out of the equation, so say they get Argentina and Lionel Messi—aka many of this Real Madrid-themed Spain team's worst nightmare—they could then land a Mohamed Salah-led Egypt from pot three, and a muscular, disruptive Serbia from pot four.
That's probably the most challenging scenario potentially awaiting Julen Lopetegui.
Argentina, Spain, Egypt, Serbia
Argentina
Spain would be Argentina's worst possible draw from pot two, returning the favour above, as they are so much stronger than the other seven offerings.
Otherwise, Jorge Sampaoli's men are clearly better than every team in pot three and four on paper, and you get the impression the likes of Sweden or Iceland—teams that will defend deep and play an attritional game—won't cause them too much consternation, as Messi is the kind of player who can break those teams down single-handedly.
What will concern them is speed on the flanks. Argentina's full-back situation is dire—they might go with wing-backs but that will only help a little—and a team such as Senegal, with Mane and Keita, could cut them to ribbons.
That leaves Serbia as the most challenging possible opponent from pot four.
Argentina, Spain, Senegal, Serbia
Belgium
Belgium have all the talent in the world, but when it comes to moulding it into a team, Roberto Martinez has done little better than predecessor Marc Wilmots.
It's become such a worry that Kevin De Bruyne has spoken out about the tactical system at play, per Het Laatste Nieuws (h/t Sky Sports). He wasn't the only one horrified by the events in the Red Devils' 3-3 draw with Mexico during the last international break.
The way El Tri performed in that match will mean Belgian fans' foreheads will crease in worry if the two teams are drawn together, but Spain will be the biggest concern from pot two.
Qualifying saw Belgium break down a number of defensive sides in the same way Germany did, so teams such as Morocco and Iran likely wouldn't hold out for 90 minutes (if Greece couldn't, these teams won't).
Instead, it's the likes of Senegal—who will hurt them and test them with speed—and Japan, who will try to go toe-to-toe with them in the possession game, they should be wary of.
Belgium, Spain, Senegal, Japan
England
Stop laughing.
England are, like it or not, favoured by bookmakers as one of the strongest teams heading to Russia and one of the most likely to lift the trophy. We presume that's largely based on on-paper squad strength and not past tournament performances.
For this one we worked backwards. What do England hate playing against? Stubborn teams who squeeze the space between the lines and create a blockade. For years, the Three Lions have lacked the creativity or ideas to get around them.
That means drawing Iceland and Morocco would spark raw fear into English hearts. The wounds the former inflicted at Euro 2016 are still fresh, while the latter seem capable of pulling something similar off—they didn't concede a single goal during qualifying.
The double European contingent means South America is the only way to go from pot one, and we'll plump for Brazil as they're the strongest.
Brazil, England, Iceland, Morocco
Portugal
It's tough to pick out Portugal's worst possible draw as their form over the last two years has been so strong. With an elite match-winner as captain and an incredibly solid midfield, they don't find it tough against many.
But the one concern they might have is in defence; their centre-halves are not young, and there are question marks at both full-back positions—one due to injuries (on the left) and one due to the emergence of Nelson Semedo (Cedric Soares is manager Fernando Santos' favourite there).
Good quality forwards will test the ageing legs of Pepe, Bruno Alves and Jose Fonte, while good wingers will stress the flanks. While an Iberian derby with Spain would be attractive, Mexico, Denmark and Nigeria feel like the three-team makeup that cause the Selecao the most problems.
Portugal, Mexico, Denmark, Nigeria
All statistics via FIFA.com
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