Masahiro Tanaka Should Opt Out of Yankees Megadeal, Become Elite FA

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. As New York Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka enters the most pivotal offseason of his MLB career, he'd do well to heed those four words.

Here's the part where some stomachs will turn. We're going to talk about a professional athlete choosing between being really rich and really, really, ridiculously rich. 

That's the reality of modern sports. It's a business, as players and executives alike constantly remind us, and business is booming.

Here's the situation for Tanaka: The New York Yankees right-hander has three years and $67 million remaining on his contract. He could ride it out and line his bank account with more money than you or I will ever see.

Or, he could pull the opt-out ripcord written into his deal and seek untold riches on the open market.

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

It's not a risk-free proposition. Tanaka may opt out only to find another, more lucrative offer isn't waiting for him. His 2017 stat line features glaring blemishes, as we'll delve into shortly.

It says here, however, Tanaka should take the plunge, leave the $67 million on the table and become an elite free agent. Yes, we said elite.

OK, first the case against Tanaka opting out.

While the burgeoning Yankees charged to within a game of the World Series, Tanaka endured easily his worst season since coming over from Japan.

He posted an MLB career-high 4.74 ERA and suffered through a few abysmal stretches, including the calendar month of May, when he coughed up 13 earned runs in 29.2 innings.

It was worth wondering if New York's former ace was legitimately broken.

"As far as it being one of the worst slumps in my career, I probably have to agree with that," Tanaka said in late May, per Fox Sports. "You have to grind it out. You can't put your head down."

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

He performed better in the second half, and finished the regular season on a crescendo by tallying 15 strikeouts in seven shutout innings Sept. 29 against the Toronto Blue Jays.

In the playoffs, meanwhile, he posted a 0.90 ERA across three starts with 18 strikeouts and three walks in 20 frames. By and large, he resembled the Tanaka of old.

A handful of stout outings don't erase a season of turmoil, but Tanaka boosted his stock.

Enough to net more than three years and $67 million from someone this winter?

Tanaka has logged 1,989.1 innings between MLB and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball and has battled injuries, including a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament diagnosed in 2014.

He opted not to have Tommy John surgery at the time and hasn't needed it since, but that specter hangs over any long-term contract. 

On the other hand, he turned 29 Nov. 1. Age isn't a significant factor. And he'd be part of a free-agent crop that isn't bursting with aces.

Jake Arrieta won the National League Cy Young Award with the Chicago Cubs in 2015 but has endured ups and downs since.

Yu Darvish, another Japanese right-hander, missed the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery and was knocked around in two World Series starts by the Houston Astros. 

Both Arrieta and Darvish will command $100 million-plus contracts anyway, make no mistake. But neither is without warts, and they're clearly at the head of the 2017-18 class. Consider this, though: Tanaka is two years younger than Darvish and nearly three years younger than Arrieta.

Which pitcher would you commit payroll-depleting years and dollars to? The fact that it's a tough choice says it all.

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Tanaka has until Saturday to make his Hamlet-esque decision: to opt out or not to opt out.

If he does, he'll draw interest from an array of suitors. The Cubs could lose Arrieta. The Dodgers could wave goodbye to Darvish. Likewise, the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and any number of other deep-pocketed franchises will be sniffing after starting pitching.

Given his spotty 2017 and the ever-present injury pall, Tanaka won't vault past the $200 million threshold crossed by the likes of David Price with Boston (cautionary tale) or Zack Greinke with the Arizona Diamondbacks (redemption tale).

He can expect more dough than what's left on his Yanks contract, however—and he may get it from the Yankees themselves. They remain top spenders, despite their recent commitment to youth and internal development, and there's uncertainty in the rotation behind Luis Severino and Sonny Gray.

Whatever uniform he dons in 2018, this is the offseason for Tanaka to be bold, to seek greater fortune and, yeah, turn a couple of stomachs. 

In this case, his venture could mean millions gained.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.