New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Game 6 Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The New York Yankees will try to advance to the World Series for the first time since 2009 when they go for their fourth straight win over the Houston Astros on Friday in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series as small road underdogs. New York has rallied from an 0-2 deficit for the second consecutive playoff series but has lost four games in a row at Houston.

Betting line: The Astros opened as -125 favorites (wager $125 to win $100); the total is at 7.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.9-1.5, Yankees (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

The Yankees again have no pressure on them as the underdogs throughout the ALCS, and they could have ended this series already had they been able to win one of the first two games that both resulted in identical 2-1 losses. The fact that each of those matchups was close has to be a confidence booster for a New York team that found its offense back at home in outscoring its opponent by a 19-5 margin in sweeping three games.

The Yankees will now send their best pitcher to the mound in Luis Severino, who has performed progressively better since a rough outing in the AL Wild Card Game. Last time out, Severino allowed one run and two hits in four innings of Game 2 on Saturday, with closer Aroldis Chapman taking the loss in the ninth.

Why the Astros can pay on the MLB lines

The Astros will be banking on Justin Verlander to extend the ALCS with another brilliant performance after he earned a complete-game victory opposite New York's Severino in Game 2. Verlander gave up one run and five hits with one walk and 13 strikeouts, as the 34-year-old veteran turned back the clock and looked like he did as a Cy Young Award winner with the Detroit Tigers in 2011.

Houston also only endured losing streaks of four games or more twice during the regular season, so the odds are definitely against that scenario happening again here.

Smart betting pick

The Astros had Game 4 won at Yankee Stadium before surrendering four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning in a 6-4 loss. They may not be able to recover from that, especially because they are counting on Verlander to come through in the biggest spot of the season. Their bullpen has been a major disappointment and could be their downfall.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have a ton of confidence, so look for them to play loose en route to another series-clinching road victory and a return to the World Series.

MLB betting trends

New York is 6-2 in its last eight games.

The total has gone over in seven of New York's last 10 games against Houston.

The total has gone under in four of Houston's last six games.

All MLB odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.