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Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For FALCONS (-3.5) Vs. BEARS

SAN FRANCISCO - OCTOBER 11:  Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons drops back to pass the ball during their game against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park on October 11, 2009 in San Francisco, California.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 16, 2009

ATLANTA (-3.5) 26 Chicago 23

Over/Under Total: 45.5
05:20 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-18

Matt Ryan is a very good quarterback and the Falcons have a good offense (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Atlanta is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team).

Chicago is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Bears have an edge when they have the ball in this game. Chicago's defense has been as good in their last 3 games without two starting linebackers, including star Brian Urlacher, but they've still been 0.3 yppl better than average defensively with their current lineup (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team).

These teams are evenly matched from the line of scrimmage and Jay Cutler's higher rate of interceptions thrown is more than made up for with his team's edge in special teams.

My math model favors Atlanta by just 1 point, but my ratings favor Atlanta by 3 1/2 points. I'll call for a 3 point Falcons' victory and lean with Chicago at +3 1/2 or more.

Read more on my website

I have 6 NCAA Best Bets and 6 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 1 NFL Best Bet and 1 NFL Strong Opinion!

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