NY JETS (-9.5) 20 Buffalo 13
The Jets usually strong defense had no answers for Miami's well executed "Wildcat" formation in their exciting 27-31 loss at Miami, but they should have no trouble defending the Bills' struggling attack today.
Buffalo looked good offensively in their first two games (6.2 yards per play), but 3 consecutive games at 4.2 yppl or less has the Bills at 0.6 yppl worse than average of the season (4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they are a bit worse than that now that Marshawn Lynch (4.0 ypr career and just 2.7 ypr in 2 games this season) is taking carries away from the more productive Fred Jackson (4.6 ypr career, 4.4 ypr this season).
Edwards has good receivers to throw to but his offensive line has allowed 18 sacks already, which gives him little time to find Owens and Evans down the field. New York has averaged only 0.8 sacks per game, so Edwards should have more time to throw, but the Jets are 0.8 yppl better than average defensively and I expect Buffalo to continue to struggle offensively.
New York, however, will probably also have some problems moving the football against a solid Buffalo defense that has allowed just 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. The Jets have been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and the addition of WR Braylon Edwards is balanced out by the injury to leading receiver Jerricho Cotchery, who is doubtful for this game.
My math model does give the Jets a 54% chance of covering at -9 1/2 points based solely on the math, but the situation is strongly in Buffalo's favor. The Bills apply to a 68-20 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams with win percentage of less than .333 that have been struggling to score points.
The Jets, meanwhile, apply to a negative 35-85-2 ATS letdown situation. I'll lean with the Bills plus the points based on the situations, which are stronger than the line value favoring the Jets.
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