SEATTLE (-3.0) 24 Arizona 17
Seattle has been pretty inconsistent so far this season and last week's 41-0 win over Jacksonville does not suddenly make them a good team. The Seahawks are still 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and I rate them average defensively. The return of Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback appears to have sparked the offense, but that 41 points in last week's win is misleading given that the Seahawks averaged 5.6 yppl against a Jaguars' defense that would normally allow 5.7 yppl on the road to an average team. Hasselbeck has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play in his two games, but he's also faced two teams in St. Louis and Jacksonville that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback.
Backup Seneca Wallace, meanwhile, has averaged only 5.0 yppp but he had to faced the tough defenses of San Francisco, Chicago, and Indy, who would combine to allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. So, Hasselbeck actually makes very little difference.
I still see the Seahawks beating a disappointing Cardinals team that is only 0.3 yppl better than average on offense with Kurt Warner in the game (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl).
What makes the Cardinals a worse than average team right now is their special teams, which have been bad.
Seattle, meanwhile, has better than average special teams and my math model favors the Seahawks by 7 1/2 points and gives them a profitable 55% chance of covering at -3 points. I also favor the under in this game.
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