AIR FORCE (-10.5) 23 Wyoming 17
Wyoming has won 3 consecutive games since Austyn Carta-Samuels was made the starting quarterback and today they catch an Air Force team in a letdown spot after last week's near upset of TCU. Teams that nearly pull off big upsets generally fall flat the next week and Air Force applies to a negative 6-47-1 ATS subset of a 43-123-4 ATS situation that is based on that premise.
While that situation is very good, the spread is too low and I'm not going to give up line value to play Wyoming as a Best Bet. While Carta-Samuel's numbers look decent (5.5 yards per pass play), they have come against horrible defensive teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback and I don't expect Wyoming to be able to throw the ball well against a very good Air Force secondary that's allowing just 5.1 yppp (to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average defense) since top CB Rembert starting playing in week 3 (he was suspended for the first 2 games).
Air Force has struggled offensively in 5 games against Division 1A opponents, averaging just 4.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and Wyoming is just 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense, so the Cowboys have the edge in that match-up.
Overall, my math model gives Air Force a 53% chance of covering at -10 1/2 points and the situation has a 58% chance of working at a fair line. Wyoming is still the side to take, but the lack of line value will keep me off the game.
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