Dr. Bob Previews NC STATE (+2.5) @ BOSTON COLLEGE

Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 16, 2009

RALEIGH, NC - SEPTEMBER 3:  Quarterback Russell Wilson #16 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack drops back to pass against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the game at Carter-Finley Stadium on September 3, 2009 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

No Carolina St. 21 BOSTON COLLEGE (-2.5) 20

Over/Under Total: 47.5
12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-17

Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses with NC State losing 28-49 as a double-digit home favorite to Duke and Boston College losing 14-48 at Virginia Tech. Both teams also apply to bounce-back situations, with NC State applying to a 28-3 ATS subset of a 67-16-1 ATS situation and BC applying to a 108-54-2 ATS situation.

The angle favoring NC State is more significant and my math model only favors the Eagles by 1/2 a point. The math also likes the under, as the defenses have advantages in this game.

NC State has averaged 5.4 yards per play in 4 games against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and the Boston College defense is 0.4 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl in 1A games against teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) even with last week's poor showing.

The Eagles' offense has been 0.8 yppl worse than average (4.6 yppl against 1A teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) while NC State is 0.4 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.4 yppl in 4 games against 1A teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team.

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