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The St. Louis Cardinals are facing a pivotal offseason. Albert Pujols has two years left on his contract and has stated again that he wants to wait and see the commitment.
The Cardinals traded a lot of depth to win now and lost. Those pieces are free agents.
The Cardinals have $56 million committed to eight players (and Julio Lugo for free). So how will they spend that?
The Cardinals will have two rotation openings. They will also have an opening at third base, left field, and four open bench roles. Some can be filled from within, while others will be addressed from outside.
Rotation
The Cardinals will have Todd Wellemeyer and John Smoltz leaving via free agency. General manager John Mozeliak has said he wants to address one role from within and address the other opening through free agency.
Jamie Garcia is the current favorite to land a rotation job. Smoltz is the most likely guy to take the other because of the Cardinals' familiarity with him, and he'll be a year removed from shoulder surgery rather than a few months.
One possible route, but highly unlikely because of the dollars and years it will take to commit, is trading Kyle Lohse. Lohse had a down 2009 and is set to start making the real money in his contract.
The Cardinals can address a need by dealing Lohse, but the problem is that Lohse has a full no-trade clause. If he would be willing to waive it, the Cardinals could find a taker if they are willing to eat about $5-7 million of the total amount owed to Lohse.
The reason that dealing Lohse would make sense is that the Cardinals could replace him with John Lackey.
Now, hear me out. The Cardinals currently have more than $30 million coming off the books, and if Lohse was traded, that would free up more. With not a lot of raises coming via arbitration, the signing could be conceivable.
The issue: dollars and years. Lackey will probably command a five-year, $90 million contract. If Lohse was traded, the Cardinals could match that easily and create the best 1-2-3 rotation punch in recent memory.
Will it happen? No, but Mozeliak has proven to have surprises up his sleeve. Do not be shocked if he tries to pull off something big like this.
Arbitration
The Cardinals have one Type A free agent (Matt Holliday) and three Type B free agents (Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Joel Pineiro). Pineiro, Holliday, and DeRosa are almost locks to be offered arbitration.
Glaus could be a wild card. The best thing that can happen is that he declines. He won't cost a team a first round pick, meaning he could be easily signed, especially when he's coming off an injury-plagued season.
The worst thing is that he accepts and does not agree to a one-year, incentive-laden contract. If he would agree to that, it wouldn't be the worse thing in the world.
Left Field
If you noticed what I just said above (that thing about Lackey), you'll realize that means no Holliday. In fact, without Lackey, there should be no Holliday.
Holliday is a very good player, don't get me wrong. The issue is that despite his notions about comfort over dollars, his agent is none other than Scott Boras himself. If Holliday wanted to go with comfort, he would still be a Colorado Rockie for close to $16 million a season.
It will take more than that to re-sign him.
The Cardinals are not the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. They cannot afford that kind of contract matched with Pujols's next contract in a dying market.
Let's say that Holliday will make $20 million a year, and Pujols's next contract starts at $20 million. Add in that the Cardinals pick up Chris Carpenter's $15 million option and Adam Wainwright's $9 million option (duh).
That would be $64 million committed to FOUR players. If Lohse is still on the team and Yadier Molina's option is picked up, that is another $19 million tacked on.
If you can add, that is $83 million in a dying market committed to SIX players.
Doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room.
The only true reason Holliday should be re-signed is because it will give Pujols some false notion that the Cardinals are committed to winning.
News flash: You can be committed without overpaying money to one player.
There are really three candidates for the left field job: Allen Craig (the most likely), Jon Jay, and Holliday.
Third Base
The Cardinals will be losing DeRosa and Glaus to free agency. While the Cardinals will try to re-up with DeRosa, it could easily backfire.
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