Yu Darvish Must Be Traded Before He Bolts for $100 Million FA Deal

In the space of six days last week, the Pittsburgh Pirates made up six games in the National League Central standings. The Texas Rangers have 10 weeks to make up a 2.5-game deficit in the American League wild-card race.

Put it that way, and it sounds like there's no reason for the Rangers to give up on this season.

But try thinking of it this way: The Rangers haven't been more than a game over .500 since Memorial Day, and even after a weekend sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, they're still two games under .500. They're in the middle of eight teams battling for the two spots in the American League Wild Card Game, and given the Houston Astros' 17-game lead in the AL West, the Rangers have no other route to the playoffs.

They also have a 6'5", 30-year-old asset named Yu Darvish, who would be the best starting pitcher on a market with plenty of potential buyers and is headed for a big free-agent payoff at the end of the season. His price figures to be well above $100 million and maybe closer to $200 million, and there's every reason to believe the Rangers will balk at paying it.

They could cash in big now, or they can hold out for what is something of a long-shot opportunity to make the playoffs—and maybe an even longer shot at signing Darvish long term.

Put it that way, and the answer seems clear. Even with a shot at the postseason, this is the time for the Rangers to cash in on Darvish.

One thing is absolutely certain: If the Rangers put Darvish on the market, teams with a chance at a championship will line up to get him. He would not be a long-term investment like the Oakland Athletics' Sonny Gray, who would be under control through 2019. But he could be a difference-maker this October.

Darvish isn't Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer, but he would be the second starter in the rotation for almost any contender. He could be the guy who puts the Los Angeles Dodgers over the top for their first World Series since 1988 (and would give them a touch less reason to stress with Kershaw headed to the disabled list) or the guy who gives the Chicago Cubs a shot at their first World Series since last October.

He could be the guy who teams with Dallas Keuchel to give the Houston Astros their first World Series title ever.

All the Rangers have to do is pick out the best of what should be a bunch of great offers. But first they have to accept this just isn't going to be their year.

It's not—not unless things turn around dramatically. This is the Astros' year in the AL West, and while a wild-card spot is hardly worthless (ask the 2014 San Francisco Giants), a long-shot run at the wild card isn't worth missing a chance at a big return on the trade market.

The New York Yankees faced a similar question in July 2016 with Aroldis Chapman. They chose right.

The Detroit Tigers faced almost the exact same question two years ago with David Price. They chose right too.

According to the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds, the Tigers had a 19.4 percent chance at a wild-card spot on July 24, 2015, and an 11.5 percent shot when they dealt Price on July 30. According to the same site, the Yankees were at 8.5 percent when they dealt Chapman.

As of Sunday, Baseball Prospectus gave the Rangers a 18 percent chance.

It should come as no surprise, then, that the Rangers started reaching out to teams to let them know Darvish could be available, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Heyman also reported via Twitter that the Yankees like Darvish, and George A. King III of the New York Post reported the Yankees had a scout at Darvish's Friday night start against the Rays.

There's a good chance that scout and others liked what they saw, because Darvish struck out a season-high 12 while giving up three runs in eight innings. He has a 3.44 ERA, and other scouts who have seen him recently say he looks all the way back from 2015 Tommy John surgery.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

"He didn't throw the split he did back in the day, at least not when I saw him," one American League scout said. "But he still has that wipeout slider."

It hasn't been enough to carry the Rangers on his back. The team is just 9-12 in Darvish's 21 starts, with six consecutive losses before Friday's win over the Rays.

That same night, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, a top Rangers scout was spotted in Des Moines, Iowa, watching the Triple-A affiliates of the Dodgers and Cubs. No surprise the Rangers are doing their homework.

But that doesn't mean they make a trade. According to reports and to people who have spoken to Rangers management, that decision may not come until closer to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

"I genuinely believe in the guys on this team," general manager Jon Daniels told Grant. "We are confident that we can play well for an extended period. I know they are confident they can, too. I look at the competition for the wild card, and I think we stack up well."

For now, teams interested can only wait and root for a few more Rangers losses, anything that would push them toward a trade. It won't happen yet.

"If and when they are completely convinced they are out of the race," one rival executive said. "That may or may not come by [this] week."

A win or two shouldn't convince them. A true winning streak? That could be different.

They have a week to do it.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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