WWE Money in the Bank 2017: Using Stats to Predict Both Ladder Match Winners

For years now, WWE Money in the Bank has been one of the biggest events of the year, beginning the summer of WWE while crowning future top stars in the business. This year, WWE Money in the Bank 2017, is no different, even with the show exclusive to SmackDown Live with two ladder matches that will decide the future of the brand.

AJ Styles, Baron Corbin, Dolph Ziggler, Kevin Owens, Sami Zayn and Shinsuke Nakamura will battle for a future WWE Championship opportunity. Meanwhile, Becky Lynch, Carmella, Charlotte Flair, Natalya and Tamina will compete to earn a SmackDown Women's Championship match. These contests will headline WWE Money in the Bank 2017, with both results uncertain and exciting.

Sometimes predictions in WWE are based on projection or assumption. Fans imagine certain outcomes and try to determine whether they are likely. But considering how much history is now behind this match type, it is possible to look at the trends in WWE to see just who is most likely to capture the Money in the Bank briefcases.

History and Importance

In 2005, one of WWE's most popular gimmicks was born when WrestleMania 21 held the first ever Money in the Bank ladder match. This multi-man match was devised to showcase the best talent in WWE in a high-stakes contest with equally high consequences. Only one competitor would walk out with a briefcase that could be used for a championship opportunity anywhere at any time.

Over the years, there have been 17 Money in the Bank ladder matches and 16 different wrestlers capturing the briefcase. Because the case allows the winner the freedom to cash in when the champion is most vulnerable, only three WWE Superstars have ever won the briefcase only to fail to win the WWE Championship or World Heavyweight Championship.

And in those situations, the circumstances were usually extreme. Mr. Kennedy lost his briefcase to Edge in 2007, with Edge cashing in the next night on SmackDown to become world heavyweight champion. John Cena's cash-in in 2012 ended in disqualification after Big Show interfered. In fact, Damien Sandow in 2013 was the only man ever to lose outright after cashing in his briefcase.

Therefore, this match has always come with huge stakes. Often the match has been used to launch Superstars into the main event scene. Daniel Bryan, Seth Rollins, CM Punk and Alberto Del Rio all won multiple world championships after their Money in the Bank victories earned them their first world titles.

Few matches beyond the main events of Big Four pay-per-views in WWE are of greater importance than Money in the Bank, and therefore few results are more important than who wins the two Money in the Bank ladder matches at Money in the Bank 2017.

The Money in the Bank Winner Averages

• Win-loss record (over previous year): 56 percent
• Main event appearances (before win): 5.8 (or 3.7 excluding Cena)
• Time in WWE (before win): 4.5 years (54 months)
• 59 percent heel, 41 percent face with 43 percent of faces turning heel while cashing in
• Winners by number of appearances in MITB match: nine times on first, two on second, five on third, one on fourth

WWE has always been prone to falling into trends. It only takes so long before certain stories begin to blend together as well as characters. This is to be expected of a product that airs every week every year and has for decades. However, quantifying those trends can be more difficult.

On the surface, the Money in the Bank ladder match has had a fairly diverse lineup of victors. Seven faces and 10 heels have won the match, ranging from the all-time successful stars such as Randy Orton to the long-time veterans including Kane. However, those wins have many similarities that show how WWE builds its briefcase holders.

While heels have only won the ladder match 59 percent of the time, an additional 43 percent of the wrestlers who won the match turned heel when they cashed in the case. Therefore, over 75 percent of the winners were heels or won the briefcase in order to help them turn heel.

Also, the match is rarely won by wrestlers with main event experience. Even including the three exceptions to this rule in Cena, Orton and Kane, the average winner competed in less than six main events before winning the case. That number drops to under two without the three veterans. However, that average still shows that most got a chance to main event before taking this next step.

Perhaps the clearest sign of how a wrestler is being booked is his win-loss record, with the winners averaging out to about a 56 percent win-loss record over the year prior to the victory (according to stats compiled from the Internet Wrestling Database). The outliers in this stat category all won in either 2012 or 2013, with Cena (90 percent) and Orton (82 percent) balancing out Dolph Ziggler (34 percent) and Sandow (27 percent).

While there are many wrestlers who have been in the match numerous times, nine of the winners were victorious in their first showings while five others won in their third showings in the match. Kane is the only wrestler to have won the match in his fourth appearance or later.

In short, excluding the outliers, Money in the Bank winners typically have been tested for their spots after several years in the business. And a typical MITB winner will use the ladder match as a jumping off point after a fairly strong year of winning matches far more than losing.

Who Will Win the 2017 Money in the Bank Ladder Matches

Using these statistics, the list of participants quickly narrows for both fields in this year's ladder matches. Both lineups are pretty evenly split for experience and success, but only a few wrestlers get close to fitting the average stats generally necessary for victory.

Credit: WWE.com

The Women's Ladder Match

The women's match is the more difficult match to call as WWE has always booked the women differently than the men, with this being the very first time women have competed in the Money in the Bank ladder match. This is backed up by the ridiculous 32 percent average win-loss record of the field.

Also, the women have almost never truly main evented in WWE, with Charlotte's one PPV main event as wide a gap between her and her competitors as Cena's 39 main event appearances before his win. Thus, it is hard to say if WWE will even follow the same trends with the women as the men.

While heels are often more likely to win this match, Natalya (13 percent) and Carmella (19 percent) have such abysmal win-loss records that it seems unlikely either will take such an important victory now. Tamina (30 percent) might fit the bill if she was not a seven-year WWE veteran; her tenure exceeds all but Kane's on the list of former Money in the Bank winners.

This leaves the two faces, Charlotte and Becky Lynch, as the likeliest victors. Both going on two years on the main roster, they have already both been women's champion. Charlotte, though, has basically been crowned as the top star of the division and has no need for the victory beyond making more history.

The true defining difference between the two is that Charlotte recently turned face while The Irish Lasskicker has been face since her debut. If the trend sticks, this could be the perfect opportunity for Lynch to turn heel for the first time on the main roster and steal the championship away from her friend Naomi.

Winner: Becky Lynch

Credit: WWE.com

The Men's Ladder Match

Right off the bat, Ziggler can be eliminated from the running due to this being his sixth appearance in the match and his holding a win already. Owens and Styles have enough main event experience to eliminate them from the running as well. Due to Nakamura's mere month on the main roster and perfect win-loss record so far, he is also too much an outlier to come out victorious.

This leaves two wrestlers, Corbin and Zayn, who both fit extremely well into the role of Money in the Bank ladder match winner. While neither have main event PPV experience, they have each been heavily featured on SmackDown Live as of late. Zayn has a 57 percent win-loss record to Corbin's 53 percent, stats which are just above and just below the average, respectively.

The main difference between Corbin and Zayn is simply that Corbin is a heel while Zayn is a face. Just last year, Dean Ambrose bucked the trend of winning the case and remaining face even after becoming WWE champion, so it is unlikely WWE will return to that story again so soon. It is also hard to imagine Zayn turning heel this early in his WWE run.

Corbin naturally fits the role of a Money in the Bank winner. He is an opportunist who craves championships and would find the perfect opportunity to strike. He has been groomed for this spot for a while now and could become SmackDown's top heel with a win on Sunday.

Winner: Baron Corbin

While these stats do not guarantee anything, they do clearly indicate the likely favorites in this match. If Natalya and Ziggler end up leaving with the briefcases on Sunday, it will be a massive shock, bucking all trends WWE has established over a decade of the ladder match's legacy.

Regardless, the ladder matches should both be fantastic showcases that change the legacies of the winners. With an 82 percent cash-in success rate backing both winners, it is likely whichever two win will soon be standing atop SmackDown Live as the top stars of the brand.