NBA Predictions 2K10: Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics

2. Toronto Raptors

3. Philadelphia 76ers

4. New York Knicks

5. New Jersey Nets

The Celtics are just a year removed from winning the NBA championship, so anyone who doesn’t consider them amongst the league’s elite teams is being foolish. Paul and Ray Allen are safe bets to play at an all-pro level once again, but the major question mark here is Kevin Garnett.

KG is basically suffering from “over-the-hill in basketball years” disease, and that can be a career-altering injury. If he’s 75 percent of his former dominant self, Garnett can still make a big impact on the defensive side of the ball. On offense though, his skill set will be much more diminished. There’s a chance KG returns with no ill effects, but I sincerely doubt that’s the case.

I’m not done throwing red flags. Rajon Rondo and management obviously aren’t on the same page, and that’s a huge problem. It’s vital to have a dependable point guard for any team that plans on making noise deep into the playoffs, and while Rondo is capable of doing that with his talent, his maturity level could drag Boston back to earth.

Despite the C’s potential drawbacks, they are far and away the best squad in the weak Atlantic division. Adding Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels certainly adds depth to an aging team that could use minutes dispersed more evenly. Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the association, and a team with so much Finals experience will have no trouble competing for a title again. Whether they can beat out the Magic or Cavs, however, is a different story.

Predicted Record: 56-26

GM Brian Colangelo is throwing all his eggs into one basket for the 2010 season. His Toronto Raptors may have been the most disappointing team in the NBA last season, so moves were made all summer long to avoid such a meltdown again.

Shawn Marion is out, but dynamic point-forward Hedo Turkoglu is in. Hedo’s value became overblown after a strong playoff showing, so refer to his 2009 regular seasons stats (16 ppg, five rpg, five apg) as a sign of what’s to come. Those contributions will help Jose Calderon dish it off easier, and take a scoring load off Chris Bosh along with Andrea Bargnani, but let’s not get carried away here. The Raptors will be starting a rookie (DeMar DeRozan) whose highest attribute is his “potential,” and that gamble works out according to plan maybe one out of every thirty tries.

Toronto will return to the playoffs, but a first round exit is likely.

Predicted Record: 43-39

Technically this is year one of the Elton Brand experiment, assuming he doesn’t get hurt again. Philadelphia played better when they didn’t have a slow, methodical offense that revolved around Brand, but now he’s back along with a structured Princeton offense. Any followers of Eddie Jordan know he has no problem letting his offenses play run-n-gun offense from time to time, but he had a small forward in a power forward’s body in Washington (Antawn Jamison).

If Philly is going to contend for a playoff spot, a ton of things have to go right. Louis Williams will need to fill in admirably for the departed Andre Miller (he will), Andre Iguodala will have to increase his scoring (he won’t), Samuel Dalembert will need to play much better (he will), and Elton Brand needs to let Iggy become the top offensive threat (he won’t).

Two for four won’t cut it, hence, no playoffs for the 76ers.

Predicted Record: 40-42

The Knicks organization could care less what happens this season, so I’ll take that approach too. New York doesn’t have any solid pieces in place except for Wilson Chandler, who should emerge as a consistent stud. David Lee is a great talent, but he probably won’t be back after the highly anticipated 2010 off-season. Nate Robinson is a good scorer for the Knicks, but wouldn’t be as effective in a different offensive system. And I’d be surprised if Al Harrington puts up 20 ppg again.

The Knicks will groom Jordan Hill and Wilson Chandler, while the rest of the team trudges through a season of irrelevance.

On the bright side, at least Stephon Marbury is gone.

Predicted Record: 35-47

The rebuilding process has officially begun in New Jersey, and I love the direction this team is in.

The Nets found their two stars in the making (Devin Harris and Brook Lopez), they added a hard-nosed developing shooting guard in Courtney Lee, and they still have a host of young guys that will bond together. The Nets won’t be very good this year, but another high draft pick and a great free agent class after the season could spell playoffs in 2011.

Predicted Record: 30-52

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

2. Chicago Bulls

3. Detroit Pistons

4. Indiana Pacers

5. Milwaukee Bucks

LeBron and company should claim the top seed in the East, but did the addition of Shaq and a few role players make them better than LA? To put it bluntly, no.

Mo Williams is great for what he does, but he came up blank in the playoffs. I can’t trust that output out of a point guard, and LeBron won’t win a championship with inconsistent play at the one.

Shaq should play pretty well, and will conserve energy by splitting time with Zydrunas Ilgauskas. I don’t trust O’Neal to shut down Dwight Howard or a host of other centers across the league. That will be something to watch closely as the season progresses.

Delonte West is a vital cog in taking pressure off King James, so his absence is detrimental to Cleveland.

Anything less than winning the championship will spell the end of the Mike Brown era.

Predicted Record: 62-20

Yes, the Bulls will have a better record without their leading scorer returning. How is that possible? Two words: Derrick Rose. Rose is a budding superstar, and the Bulls have enough backcourt depth to survive without Ben Gordon.

Kirk Hinrich will get to play close to starter’s minutes again, and I think Jannero Pargo is an underrated commodity.

John Salmons can score at will, Luol Deng is looking healthier, and things were starting to come together for both Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah by the time they were finally knocked out of the playoffs by the Boston Celtics. Depending on whom the Bulls are matched up with in the postseason, don’t be surprised to see a first-round upset.

By season’s end, we will all be witnesses to the new guard in every Bulls fan’s heart: Derrick Rose.

Predicted Record: 44-38

Detroit basketball will need a year before it can return to its former glory, sorry Pistons fans. Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva were nice additions, but not enough to make the Pistons relevant again.

Chauncey Billups’s impact on his former team was obviously much larger than most people thought, as was evident by Detroit’s collapse after he went to Denver.

Rodney Stuckey is not the answer at point guard, and Will Bynum isn’t either. Both guys can drive to the basket pretty well, but neither can shoot or dish it efficiently.

It’s going to be hard giving Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon playing time, regardless of what new head coach John Kuester says.

The Pistons also have a gaping hole at the center position. The competition for that spot right now is between Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown, and Ben Wallace. I don’t know about you, but none of those guys seem even remotely appealing as a starting center for a team that wants to be a contender.

Predicted Record: 41-41

The Pacers will lose every game in which Danny Granger fails to go for at least 20 points. He’s the most underrated superstar in the NBA today, and doesn’t receive nearly enough credit.

Troy Murphy is a great hustle guy and three-point shooter, but he won’t put up the same numbers as he did last year. I’m excited to see how Tyler Hansbrough does behind Murphy as essentially another hustle guy.

Roy Hibbert should improve on a pretty ordinary rookie season, and Jeff Foster is a great rebounded, although that’s literally all he will do. I wish Indiana luck at point guard, because T.J. Ford will get hurt again, and his backup is Travis Diener.

The only way the Pacers compete for the 8th seed in the East is if Mike Dunleavy returns and plays far above expectations. Even if he does well, Indiana should be on the outside looking in.

Predicted Record: 36-46

The Bucks are a jumbled mess entering the season. Andrew Bogut’s health is always an unknown, Michael Redd is constantly in and out of the lineup, and Scot Skiles has once again decided to play Luke Ridnour over a more exciting/better point guard. Last year was Ramon Sessions, this year is rookie Brandon Jennings.

With Richard Jefferson and Ramon Sessions run out of town, hardly anything can be expected of the Bucks. Perhaps another high draft pick will get Milwaukee back on track, but I foresee them being one of the five worst teams in basketball.

Predicted Record: 27-55

1. Orlando Magic

2. Washington Wizards

3. Atlanta Hawks

4. Miami Heat

5. Charlotte Bobcats

The Magic will reign supreme in the toughest Eastern Conference division for obvious reasons. No one can stop Dwight Howard, who should only increase his post moves repertoire on his quest to win an MVP award and lead Orlando to a championship. Once Rashard Lewis returns from his bizarre steroid suspension, he will stretch the court and force opponents to honor his outside shot. Jameer Nelson played far above expectations, and will keep that up barring injury. Orlando also added a ton of depth in guys like Matt Barnes and Brandon Bass, not to mention they re-signed Marcin Gortat, albeit for far too much money.

Now, let’s not get too carried away here. The loss of Hedo Turkoglu was monumental, and gaining Vince Carter doesn’t even that out.

Hedo’s stats are worse than VC’s on paper, but his impact was unique. He changed opponent’s game plans and caused match up problems for all of Orlando’s opponents. Vince Carter definitely garners attention, but he doesn’t cause those same match up issues. It’s going to be much easier for teams like Cleveland, Boston, and even Washington (I’ll get to them next) to stop Carter and focus on Dwight Howard.

Even if Hedo’s departure hurts the Magic, they are still one of the best teams in the NBA. Stan Van Gundy is a great coach, and under his direction, anything is possible.

Predicted Record: 59-23

The MVP of the Washington Wizards this season won’t be a player. He won’t even be a coach. Tim Grover, NBA trainer extraordinaire, will be the reason Washington makes it back to relevance. Grover has extended Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade’s careers, and he worked extensively with Gilbert Arenas this summer to help him return to form. I’m a believer in Gil’s apparent recovery, even though most others aren’t.

Let’s assume Agent Zero stays relatively healthy (I know that’s hard to do). Last time that happened, the Wizards were first in the Eastern Conference, and Eddie Jordan was the head coach for that All-Star team.

Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are still in D.C., and both are former all-star players. Brendan Haywood is finally healthy again, and Javale McGee is Washington’s diamond in the rough big man.

Washington also added two great role players: Mike Miller and Randy Foye. Foye is still young and has room to grow. If Arenas gets hurt, Foye can do a solid job of filling in. Miller is a former sixth man of the year who should play much better than last year. And let’s not forget about new coach Flip Saunders, who should have a positive effect on a team that lost its focus under Eddie Jordan.

Predicted Record: 48-34

Joe Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks don’t want to use the excuse of being too young anymore. The additions of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith turned the Hawks into an experienced team with a group of athletic ballers.

While Atlanta has made strides to take that next step in the postseason, they possess too many iffy x-factors. I’d be shocked if Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford all take the next step toward stardom, which is what the Hawks need if they want to take down the best of the East.

How Jamal Crawford plays off the bench could be an issue too. Crawford is used to starter’s minutes, but I can’t imagine he will get those behind Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson.

If this season marks the end of the Joe Johnson era, it will be a shame. Johnson is a great player who desperately wants to get Atlanta over the hump, but they still won’t quite reach the status of contender.

Predicted Record: 47-35

The Dwyane Wades will probably sneak into the playoffs as the eight seed, and that will be all Wade’s doing.

Jermaine O’Neal is running on bionic knees and will not last through a full season. His backup, Jamaal Magloire, is not good enough to cut it once the playoffs come around.

Mario Chalmers is a pretty solid option at point, and Udonis Haslem has championship experience as a power forward. I’m in the minority when it comes to Michael Beasley: I think he will play well and put his off-the-court issues behind him.

Even still, Miami is not a good team. I’m not sure why Pat Riley didn’t try to surround Wade with some star talent. He definitely has the cap room to do so. What’s done is done though, and this could be Wade’s last season in Miami.

Predicted Record: 42-40

It’s not that the Bobcats are a bad team; it’s just that they aren’t better than the other squads in the Southeast. Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin is a great point guard combo, and will keep other teams on their toes. Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, and Tyson Chandler are perfect role players to form a base around a superstar. That’s where things go downhill, because Charlotte doesn’t have a bonafide stud.

Gerald Wallace is a great talent, but he’s no superstar. He can’t score at will, instead, he gets his points by putting his head down and driving to the bucket. He also can’t seem to stay healthy, which puts a hamper on the Bobcats. If Larry Brown and company can find a twenty point per game scorer after the season, they should easily make the playoffs. For this year though, it’s a no-go.

Predicted Record: 40-42

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

2. Orlando Magic

3. Boston Celtics

4. Washington Wizards

5. Atlanta Hawks

6. Chicago Bulls

7. Toronto Raptors

8. Miami Heat