Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: Odds, Analysis, NHL Betting Pick

The Pittsburgh Penguins hope to close out the Washington Capitals on home ice Monday, and they are small favorites to win Game 6 and move on to the NHL Eastern Conference Final for the second straight year.

The defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins are coming off a 4-2 road loss to the Capitals in Game 5 and will not want to go back to Washington for a Game 7.

Betting line: The Penguins opened as -120 favorites (wager $120 to win $100); the total is at 5.5 goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.2-2.4, Penguins. NHL picks on every game.

Why the Capitals Can Pay on the NHL Lines

Despite the Caps losing the first two games at home, they have rallied back to win two of the past three meetings and can still host a Game 7 with one more road victory.

They won Game 3 at Pittsburgh 3-2 in overtime after Pens captain Sidney Crosby left early in the first period with a concussion. Washington blew a 2-0 lead in the final two minutes of regulation but found a way to win on Kevin Shattenkirk's OT goal. Crosby missed Game 4 and had an assist in Game 5. Washington has won two in a row when he has played.

Why the Penguins Can Pay on the NHL Lines

The Pens know what is at stake here and will desperately want to close out the Caps at PPG Paints Arena. They dominated the first two games of this series, and the last two and two-thirds have been competitive. Pittsburgh must find a way to rebound from the Game 5 third period that saw the team outscored 3-0 after leading 2-1 through 40 minutes.

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been better than counterpart Braden Holtby, who has surrendered 13 goals on 105 shots for a save percentage of .876. Holtby has given up at least two goals in each game of the series, and that likely will not cut it in this spot.

Smart Betting Pick

Fleury has only had one bad period in this series, and bettors should trust him a lot more than Holtby. Washington will have to score a lot to force a Game 7, and that seems highly unlikely on the road.

The one game the Caps did win in Pittsburgh came with Crosby out for almost the entire game, and they proceeded to lose as favorites in Game 4 when he sat out. Bet on the Pens at online gambling sites to win Game 6 and advance.

NHL Betting Trends

Washington is 6-2 SU in its past eight games on the road.

Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its past seven games at home.

The total has gone under in six of Pittsburgh's past seven games at home.

All NHL lines and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.