Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: Odds, Analysis, NHL Betting Pick

The Pittsburgh Penguins will be looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the Washington Capitals when they return home as small favorites for Game 3 of their second-round playoff series Monday.

The Penguins won each of the first two matchups in Washington by a combined score of 9-4 after picking up a 6-2 victory in Game 2 on Saturday as +149 underdogs.

Betting line: The Penguins opened as -135 favorites (wager $135 to win $100); the total is at 5.5 goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 3.8-1.8 Penguins (NHL picks on every game).

Why the Capitals Can Pay on the NHL Lines

It is nearly do-or-die time for the Capitals, as they try to earn their first win of the series. Washington head coach Barry Trotz told the Associated Press he is sticking with goaltender Braden Holtby despite his early struggles versus Pittsburgh, stopping just 29 of the 35 shots he's faced so far (h/t MailOnline).

Holtby is capable of playing much better, even though he will find it challenging away from home, where his goals-against average was nearly one goal higher during the regular season.

Still, the Caps found a way to win twice on the road against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round and went 23-12-6 away from Verizon Center in the regular season compared to a 19-15-7 road record for the Pens.

Why the Penguins Can Pay on the NHL Lines

The defending Stanley Cup champs do not want to let Washington back into this series, which is essentially what they would be doing by losing at home in Game 3. The Caps remain an extremely dangerous team, and the Pens found a way to win all three games against them at home in last year's playoff series by one goal.

Pittsburgh had one of the best home marks in the NHL during the regular season, at 31-6-4, with Washington one win better at 32-7-2. The Pens are in Holtby's head and need to stay aggressive offensively, as they are averaging a league-best 4.29 goals in the playoffs.

Smart Betting Pick

Pittsburgh goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been the unsung hero of the postseason so far, with a .936 save percentage. Fleury has played even better against the Caps than he did in the first round, and he allowed just four goals on 123 shots (.967) in that series with the Columbus Blue Jackets in three home games.

The Penguins have won 10 of their past 14 meetings with the Capitals, dating back to the 2016 regular season. Wager on Pittsburgh at online betting sites to come through again for a 3-0 series lead.

NHL Betting Trends

The total has gone under in eight of Washington's past 12 games.

Washington is 5-1 in its past six games on the road.

Pittsburgh is 6-1 in its past seven games.

All NHL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.