The Orioles, despite their better than expected start to the 2008 season, are knee deep in a rebuilding phase.  The front office led by Andy MacPhail has dedicated the franchise to a long and strategic road back to glory with pitching and young talent as a cornerstone to sustained success. 

This Thursday's rule four draft is the next battle in this effort.  With the fourth overall pick, the good news for the O's is that they should be able to land top notch talent with their first pick and then four more in the top 116.  This draft has the potential to be the next step for the Orioles.  As a fan, the expectations are great.

The MLB draft is never a sure thing. Show me a draft in professional sports that is.  For every Lebron James or Alex Rodriguez there is a Dejuan Wagner or Matt Bush. 

As an MLB team, the best you can do is draft a player with the best tools, highest ceiling and best athletic ability. There are other factors too.

How signable is a player?  Will a player go back to college if they don't get the deal they want?  Wade Townsend burned the Orioles back in 2004 and went back to Rice.  For these reasons, it is very tough to project who will go where.

All of that being said, I'm going to do my best.  The Orioles have historically lacked big name position players.  The only homegrown position players they currently have are Brian Roberts (1st round supplemental 1999) and Nick Markakis (1st round 2003). 

There are some talented players in the minors (Matt Wieters, Billy Rowell, Brandon Snyder, Nolan Reimold, Chris Vinyard, etc.) but what the Orioles want is depth. 

After re-vamping the minors with excellent pitching prospects through the Tejada and Bedard trades, I see the Orioles selecting a hitter.  The top four hitters in the draft (according to Baseball America)?

Pedro Alverez (Vanderbilt)

Tim Beckham (HS)

Buster Posey (Florida State)

Gordon Beckham (Georgia)

The teams ahead of the Orioles are the Rays, Pirates, and Royals. 

The Rays are playing great baseball right now. They've had great luck with BJ Upton, a high school athlete with a great bat and average glove.  I see them going with Tim Beckham; taking his five-tool ability at SS and hoping they have a better fielding Upton on their hands. 

The Pirates?  Where to begin.  They are going to take the best available and if I'm them that means Pedro Alverez.  Alverez is a mature college hitter who could mimic Evan Longoria's quick ascension to the majors. 

The Royals?  Well, let's be honest: they kind of need everything.  They need premium position players and premium arms. Their first round pick last year is struggling in A ball and Hochevar has been so-so in the bigs.  Baseball America has them going with Buster Posey, a very talented catcher from FSU.  I could personally see them going with either Posey or LHP Brian Matusz.  Once again, who knows?

Now, the Orioles.  The Orioles could go with Gordon Beckham with the fourth overall pick.  I could also see them going with Justin Smoak, a switch-hitting Mark Texiera clone from South Carolina. 

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