San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies: Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The San Antonio Spurs will look to eliminate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 6 of their first-round NBA playoff series on Thursday as small road favorites.

The home team has won and covered the spread in each game so far after a 116-103 San Antonio rout in Game 5.

Point spread: The Spurs opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total is at 190, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 102.0-98.3, Spurs (NBA picks on every game)

Why the Spurs can cover the spread

The Spurs have won 23 of the previous 30 meetings with the Grizzlies, going 18-12 against the spread during that stretch.

Six of the seven losses came on the road, but San Antonio has also beaten Memphis nine times at FedEx Forum dating back to April 1, 2013.

In other words, the Spurs have a winning record away from home in this series recently despite losing Games 3 and 4.

With the Houston Rockets already advancing to the next round, San Antonio also has an extreme sense of urgency to finish off the Grizzlies as soon as possible.

Why the Grizzlies can cover the spread

Memphis played like a completely different team in its first two games at home and simply wants to continue playing that way in its own building to extend to a Game 7.

The Grizzlies were able to overcome 43 points from Kawhi Leonard in Game 4 on Saturday to win 110-108 in overtime, and they can expect a similar effort from the Spurs here.

But Memphis has somehow found a way to answer at home, winning the past four meetings both straight up and against the spread dating back to the regular season, and knows another loss means the end of the line until next year.

Smart betting pick

If San Antonio could not beat the Grizzlies on the road in Game 4 with Leonard going off, it will likely take a similar effort to have a shot at winning Game 6.

The role players for the Spurs have not stepped up in Memphis but played well in Game 5. The odds of them performing at that level in consecutive games seems slim at best, so back the Grizzlies again to hold serve and extend the betting trends for the home team.

NBA betting trends

The total has gone over in six of San Antonio's last seven games.

San Antonio is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games on the road.

Memphis is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.

All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.