(Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)
I know it's a bit early to start looking ahead with the United States having just qualified for South Africa 2010 last night with an exciting 3-2 win over Honduras.
Yet, even with one more day of qualifying left, we pretty much know how many teams from each Confederation are going to be represented in the final.
Europe (UEFA) gets thirteen spots, Africa (CAF) gets six, South America (CONMEBOL) gets 4.5, Asia (AFC) gets 4.5, North & Central America & the Caribbean get 3.5, and Oceania (OFC) gets a half place.
With New Zealand beating Bahrain in the first leg of the AFC-OFC playoff, I think New Zealand earns a trip to the Finals, and that the CONMEBOL representative beats Honduras or Costa Rica.
The final pool of teams, then, is 13 from Europe, six from Africa, five from South America, four from Asia, three from our region, and the Kiwis.
Ever since FIFA went to the 32-team World Cup Final format in 1998, meaning eight groups of four teams, FIFA's goals for the draw have been ...
1. Seed eight top teams, one for each group.
2. Among the top eight, represent at least two, preferably three confederations.
3. Represent three different confederations in each group.
4. Have as competitively balanced groups as possible.
The eight seeded teams are typically selected from the top of the FIFA World Rankings, adjusted a bit for recent World Cup performances, and the desire to represent several different confederations in the top eight seeds.
Why does it matter being one of the seeded eight? It means the serious powerhouses don't have to play each other in group play, avoiding the specter of Brazil and Spain, knocking Germany out in the first round, etc.
In Germany, in 2006, six seeded teams won their groups, and all eight made it out of group play. Being seeded matters.
The current FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings are
1. Brazil
2. Spain
3. Netherlands
4. Italy
4. Germany
6. Russia
7. England
8. Argentina
9. Croatia
10. France
11. USA
We are the highest ranked team outside of the UEFA & CONMEBOL, which have eight and two teams in the top ten, respectively.
As the host country, South Africa will be seeded, representing the CAF. Argentina is in free-fall, with its qualification hopes on the ropes. Even if they should qualify, seeding the fourth or fifth place finisher from South America is unlikely. That only leaves one South American team worthy of a seed, Brazil.
The top eight seeds would then be South Africa, Brazil, and eight European teams, a bit heavy on the European representation. In 2006, FIFA seeded a representative from CONCACAF, passing us over for Mexico.
This time, it makes sense to seed the United States, along with South Africa, Brazil, and the five best ranked European qualifiers. Four confederations would be represented, and only the host is outside the top eleven.
Following seeding, FIFA usually creates three more pots of eight, and one team is drawn from each pot, creating eight groups of four.
It couldn't be easier this time around.
The remaining eight European teams can be put into one pot for the draw, assuring that no group has more than two European teams, and three groups will have only one.
The remaining four South American teams can be placed in a pot with the four Asian teams.
All five remaining African teams can be placed in a pot with New Zealand, Mexico, and the other CONCACAF qualifier.
By drawing one team from each pot per group, eight evenly competitive groups with at least three confederations per group will be created, and the United States will have an even better chance of getting out of group play.
Winning our last qualifier against Costa Rica, and some friendlies to keep our ranking points up may be crucial to landing our first ever seeded spot at the World Cup.
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