Bare Bones: Your Favorite Uncle's NFL Week Four Picks ATS

LeeVanSpleefContributor IOctober 11, 2009

Under one of the most poignant moments in NFL history (see photo), your Uncle Spleefy breaks down the games and makes the tough picks each week brings.

My advice to you? Bet hard and bet often. Call DiTech and get that second mortgage for the "remodel." We'll turn that shithole into a palatial chateau. Do a paycheck advance, turn that structured settlement for the next 20 years into a quick lump sum, or cash in that trust fund at a deep discount to lay your greedy little hands on the green.

Anything of "value" in your house can quickly be liquidated, and remember—got a hunch? Bet a bunch!

I heard on the radio this week that a gorilla has testicles the size of golf balls, and a chimp has nads the size of baseballs. After last week’s pedestrian 7-7, I guess you can all call me Curious George.

I’m going to have to be upfront about this week. I haven’t had the time I usually do to dedicate to writing this. My old man’s got one foot in the dirt, and I’m left handling the family business.

I like to have these in by Friday noon-ish, so that’s out the window. But the least I can do is a quick run down so I can get my picks in, and maybe we can get one or two laughs out of this fucker.

For the year, I’m 43-19. But like I’ve been harping the entire time, Vegas sets their picks easy early on, and gets tougher as the year goes. You’ll notice that this week brings us the first multi 14+ point spreads. That is no mistake. Vegas is looking to make chumps of us all and cash in on their early investment in us, so we’ll have to stay on our toes from here on out. I’ll be keeping a jaundiced eye cast at the money lines.

Without further fluff:

CLE Cover BUF (+6)

Derek Anderson is an obvious upgrade from Noodles. At least the guy can complete a forward pass and throw downfield.

Quinn was painful to watch. He checked down an extremely high rate, and focused on passing short to the flat and to his RBs.

I’m not sure how productive Chansi Stuckey will be at this point, but Buffalo is going to sorely miss Donte Whitner.

The Browns have two up and coming WRs in Robiskie and Massaquai. I think this is the week Cleveland gets their win after a heartbreaker against the Bengals.

Money on Buffalo: 66 percent (23,000 bets)

PIT Cover DET (-10.5)

Steelers crush them—bet the farm, even if the spread was 25. Eighty-four percent of the money is on Pittsburgh. I’d like to know what the other 16 percent is thinking.

Money on Pittsburgh: 84 percent (29,000 bets)

DAL Cover KC (-8.5)

Rebound week for Dallas after a putrid offensive display. I find it hard to believe Dallas won’t come out swinging against KC and cover easily. Plus, this pick is against the grain—I’m going with the 26 percentile.

Money on Kansas City: 74 percent (34,000 bets)

MIN Cover STL (-8.5)

Like the Steelers game, bet this one to the hilt. The final score could be 45-0. Brett rides the pine early in the fourth.

Money on Minnesota: 97 percent (32,000 bets)

NYG Cover OAK (-15.5)

This is the biggest point spread of the year, and most of the bettors are on the Giants side. Warily I’m taking New York. Ridiculously, I picked Oakland last week and vow to never be on that side again. However, it may look like I was very right in Cable seeing jail time. Damn, I wish I could have found a line on that action.

Money on New York: 73 percent (31,000 bets)

PHI Cover TB (-14.5)

Another very high point spread. But fear not grasshopper, Philly is going to bludgeon Tampa. Bet the hilt and quit being a pussy about it.

Money on Philadelphia: 78 percent (23,000 bets)

CAR Cover WAS (-3.5)

Carolina is coming off a bye, and Washington still employs Jim Zorn. I’m taking Delhomme in this game. The Redskins are that bad this year. Look for Steve Smith to embarrass Smoot one last time.

Money on Carolina: 94 percent (28,000 bets)

BAL Cover CIN (-8.5)

On a side note, would it really kill Chad Johnson not to have some elaborate celebration planned and pumped up before, during, and after each touchdown he may or may not make? After almost losing to the Browns, I've lost a lot of faith in the striped ones. Ray-Ray comes up big, and Chad doesn't get his riverboat dance, or whatever self-serving display he plans.

Money on Baltimore: 57 percent (33,000 bets)

SF Cover ATL (-2.5)

This one I’d wager quite a bit on. San Fran is a tougher team, and not bad on offense. Matt Ryan has shown to be human against elite defenses and I don’t think the line is as wide as it should be. Frisco will bottle up Turner, and force Ryan to the air.

Money on San Francisco: 61 percent (38,000 bets)

NE Cover DEN (+3)

Denver has one good win, now they’re favorites over New England? Don’t fall for it. The 4-0 Broncos are going to be 4-1 tomorrow.

Money on New England: 89 percent (37,000 bets)

AZ Cover HOU (-5.5)

This is part of my hard on for the Texans and the belief that the Cards are going to wake up at some point and realize the season is slipping away. There’s no time like it against a soft Texan defense.

Money on Arizona: 51 percent (23,000 bets)

JAC Cover SEA (0)

Line is off because of Hasselback.

This is a tough one with two mediocre teams that have no chance to have any post season aspirations, really.

IND Cover TEN (-3.5)

Only three-and-a-half points on this, really? Is it a Vegas chump bet? I doubt it. Unless Vince Young gets on the field and has a major resurgence, I have to believe the Colts cover this small spread.

Money on Indianapolis: 96 percent (39,000 bets)

NYJ Cover MIA (-1.5)

And what’s up with this spread? The Jets lose one game against what is most likely the best team in football, and suddenly they’re only one-and-a-half point favs? Trap or not, bet this one hard.

Money on New York: 96 percent (29,000 bets)

Sorry this is so short this week. I really had to just throw it together. I’ll get to cracking on next week.


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