March Madness 2017: Safe Picks, Predictions for Riskiest Teams in NCAA Bracket

As you carefully fill out your NCAA bracket, choose wisely. Remember Michigan State going down in the first round to Middle Tennessee? Good times for those who penciled the Spartans in to the Final Four without even considering the upset. Then again, those outcomes highlight the chaos in March Madness.

Nestled within the four regions, we should all be alert to the pitfalls. The selection committee put a treacherous road in front of some teams and provided a clear pathway to the Final Four for others.

Should anyone trust Kansas after losing to Texas Christian University in the Big 12 tournament?

For those who love to see storied franchises go head-to-head in meaningful games, a North Carolina versus Duke showdown in the NCAA Championship Game would certainly hit epic levels on the ratings scale:

Before envisioning those programs facing off for the fourth time this season, take heed of the safest and riskiest Final Four selections.

Safe Pick: No. 2 Duke 

The Blue Devils went through a grueling ACC tournament schedule, earning wins over Louisville and North Carolina en route to winning the conference title. Still, they list as a No. 2 seed in the East Region.

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller went further to oppose the questionable placement: "After consecutive wins over Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame, Duke finished the season with eight RPI Top 25 wins. No other team had more than six. The Blue Devils also got to 13 RPI Top 50 wins, where Villanova (12) was the only other team with more than 11."

Save your tears for this program. Duke has an easy road to the Elite Eight at the very least. Before reaching Villanova, Baylor will pose the toughest challenge to the Blue Devils in the East. Freshman forward Jayson Tatum took the spotlight in the ACC tournament. He's the rising factor who pushes the program into safe-pick territory.

ESPN analysts have highlighted a Duke vs. North Carolina championship game as a strong possibility:

Despite an impressive season and a Big East title, there's little hope for Villanova as a repeat champion. The Blue Devils don't have a dynamic point guard like Jason Hart, but Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard have knocked down three-pointers at a high clip. With Tatum providing balance on the inside, it's a team built to reach the Final Four.

Risky Pick: No.1 North Carolina

Despite losing to Duke in the ACC tournament, North Carolina earned a No. 1 seed in the South Region. However, the Tar Heels would have to go through stiff competition to reach the Final Four. In the second round, a scrappy Arkansas team that ran out of gas against Kentucky will likely await the Tar Heels.

In addition to an early bump in the road, UCLA or Kentucky will likely emerge from the South Region. This year, six Bruins average double figures in scoring and Lonzo Ball averages 7.7 assists per game as an elite passing guard.

After watching UCLA play, oddsmakers have given more respect to the Bruins:

Casual fans will talk about Ball as a top NBA prospect, but what about junior center Thomas Welsh, who put together double-doubles in consecutive Pac-12 tournament games? At 6'10", TJ Leaf can also become a matchup nightmare for smaller teams.

If Welsh and Leaf avoid unnecessary fouls, the Bruins should be able to compete with North Carolina when banging bodies in the paint and generate more second-chance scoring opportunities.

Safe Pick: No. 2 Arizona

Last year, Arizona suffered an early loss in the tournament. Now, sophomore guard Allonzo Trier returns with a 7-footer who can also shoot the ball from beyond the arc. Fortunately for the Wildcats, they won't experience any rough-and-tumble opponents until an Elite Eight matchup against Gonzaga.

After an awe-inspiring run through the Pac-12 tournament, most of us forgot about Sean Miller's sweaty shirt in a loss to Wichita State in last year's tournament. Furthermore, Arizona has played against tough conference competition and earned two decisive victories over UCLA.

ESPN's Jeff Goodman projects the Wildcats as a Final Four team and cites guard play as a common thread with his choices:

Arizona doesn't have the inside-outside combination to win the tournament, but the West Region ranks as the weakest field with a No. 1 seed that most people deem fraudulent.

Risky Pick: No. 1 Kansas 

TCU stunned Kansas in the Big 12 tournament, and that gives reason to pause before projecting the Jayhawks as a Final Four squad. One loss doesn't erase a strong season, but the Midwest Region has plenty of pitfalls for Bill Self's group.

Freshman guard Josh Jackson will miss the opening round through suspension:

Nonetheless, Kansas' tough road will likely start with the Iowa State in the Sweet 16 Round. The Cyclones won the Big 12 tournament behind tremendous guard play on both ends of the court.

If the Jayhawks advance past Iowa State, they'll likely meet a Michigan team playing with resolve after a scary plane incident. The Wolverines' standout guard, Derrick Walton Jr., put the team on his back during the Big Ten tournament. His exceptional play will continue under the bright lights.

As a ball distributor, Walton has the ability to elevate guard Zak Irvin and forward D.J. Wilson as secondary assets on the offensive end. If the trio fires on all cylinders, Michigan will emerge as a Final Four team on April 1.

Stats provided by Sports Reference unless otherwise noted.