March Madness 2017 Predictions: Breaking Down Experts' Picks
If you followed college basketball closely enough this season, the odds are you've seen or read some of what the sport's experts have had to say about which are the best teams in the country.
Now it's time for the experts to put their money where their mouths are—so to speak—via their official 2017 NCAA tournament brackets.
We've broken down the predictions of some of the nation's most noted college hoops experts to show you where they're in agreement and where each stands out from the pack.
And just in case you're still on the fence as to who to pick in your own bracket, seeing which way these personalities went could sway you in one direction or another.
Just remember who to share your winning with or, more likely, who to blame for a busted bracket.
Nicole Auerbach, USA Today
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Smartest picks
Auerbach has flown all over the country to see games in person, so her knowledge of which teams are playing well is second to none.
A regular-season sweep of Villanova likely influenced her choice to have Butler make the Sweet 16 despite the enticement to go with trendy No. 12 seed Middle Tennessee instead.
At the same time, she understands that as good a story as Northwestern making the tourney is, it doesn't mean the Wildcats will go any further than the second round.
Biggest gamble
Auerbach thinks there's some 2011 Connecticut in this year's Michigan squad since she's got the team that survived a minor plane crash to win four games in four days at the Big Ten tournament into the Final Four.
That would require knocking off an impressive list of opponents starting with No. 2 Louisville in the second round, third-seeded Oregon in the Sweet 16 and top seed Kansas in the Elite Eight.
A Nevada-Vermont second-round game would send the Wolf Pack into the Sweet 16 in the Midwest, which is not something you'll see on a lot of brackets, nor is seeing Notre Dame in the Final Four as the West Region champ instead of co-favorites Arizona and Gonzaga.
Instead of thinking Mark Few or Sean Miller finally get over the hump, she's going with Mike Brey, who's equally as deserving.
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There hasn't been a repeat national champion since Florida in 2007, and we haven't had a title game rematch in the championship since Cincinnati and Ohio State met in both the 1961 and 1962 finals, but Auerbach feels the time is right for that to happen.
Last year's Villanova vs. North Carolina clash was epic, and a chance to see that one again isn't going to be criticized by many.
Jay Bilas, ESPN
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Smartest picks
Bilas isn't just a former player who's now serving as one of ESPN's top college basketball analysts, he's also a practicing attorney. That means he's pretty smart and is apt to give measured responses to questions. And that approach extends to his bracket picks which he evidently spent a lot of time on.
He goes into great detail explaining how a lot of upsets could happen but then grounds himself again and goes with the favorite in most cases.
He has eight double-digit seeds winning in the first round but makes the case for plenty more, and he even cautions that "it may be best for your bracket to go with chalk here" despite his choice of No. 12 Nevada over Iowa State.
Biggest gambles
A Duke-North Carolina national title game? Yes, please. Bilas thinks it's possible, and with each team either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, it wouldn't be hard to happen. In reality, though, there hasn't been a pairing of conference rivals in the final since Kansas beat Oklahoma in 1988.
That's the closest thing to a major reach Bilas takes since he has no team seeded lower than sixth making it out of the first weekend.
The last time there was a tourney that lacking in Cinderellas was 2007, when No. 7 UNLV was the lowest-seeded team to make the Sweet 16. That means his lack of gambles is the biggest risk he's taking.
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If Bilas was representing you in court, you'd want to take this bracket as gospel, but if he were on the other side of the case you wouldn't trust a thing he says.
That's basically how you should look at his bracket since it errs on the side of safety—like a lawyer trying to negotiate a favorable settlement for his client—but it's certainly rooted in the teams he is most knowledgeable about. Though he is the analyst on ESPN's game of the week each Saturday the majority of his assignments are in the ACC, thus explaining why he has three teams from that conference (Duke, Louisville, North Carolina) in the Final Four.
Rob Dauster, NBC Sports
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Smartest picks
For as much chaos as Dauster has during the first round—he has 10 double-digit seeds making it to the weekend—the chalk starts to come out during the second weekend.
His Elite Eight features only two teams seeded higher than second, with No. 5 Notre Dame being the closest thing to a Cinderella, though the Fighting Irish beating No. 1 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 is a trendy pick. A Duke/Kansas final isn't hard to imagine.
Biggest gambles
Rhode Island and Xavier in the Sweet 16 means Dauster feels two of the last teams into the field—Rhody might have been in the First Four had it not won the Atlantic 10 tournament—are good enough to make a run despite having uneven regular seasons.
At the same time, though, he has chosen not to advance a First Four at-large winner past the first round despite at least one doing so every year since 2011. We'll see how that works out.
Purdue is the highest-seeded team from the Big Ten and has a formidable front line in 7'2" Isaac Haas and double-double machine Caleb Swanigan. But Dauster thinks the Boilermakers will be the latest victim of No. 13 Vermont, which comes into the tourney with a 21-game win streak.
Dauster also has a pair of second-round games pitting double-digit seeds, including No. 12 UNC-Wilmington (having already beaten Virginia) taking down No. 13 East Tennessee State after it had beaten Florida.
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With a good mix of early craziness and late calm, it's the kind of bracket that you'd see quite a lot in an office pool. It might not win, but if a few of those Thursday/Friday upsets happen, it could be way out in front of the pack at the first checkpoint.
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C.J. Moore, Bleacher Report
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Smartest picks
We can't critique other experts' brackets without making sure to do the same to one of our own, and so Moore is the guinea pig from our college basketball staff whose selections get included. And while it might sound self-aggrandizing to say so, he's got a pretty good bracket.
Though the Elite Eight is pretty chalky, with no team seeded lower than third getting that far, early on he's more than willing to shatter the dreams of some teams with feelgood stories.
Minnesota's turnaround from 8-23 to 24-9 was tremendous, but the Golden Gophers could be in big trouble against Middle Tennessee and not just because it's one of those vaunted 5/12 matchups that often leads to an upset.
And Michigan's tear through the Big Ten has it riding high entering the NCAA tournament, but Moore thinks that run won't go any further than the Sweet 16.
Biggest gamble
Say what you want about LaVar Ball, father of UCLA freshman star Lonzo, and his outlandish claims that his son is better than Steph Curry and that the former Washington State player would "kill" Michael Jordan in a game of one-on-one, there's no denying he's making sure the Bruins are constantly getting discussed.
And Moore appears to be drinking the Kool-Aid since he's got UCLA in the Final Four, meaning it would need to knock off Kentucky in the Sweet 16 and North Carolina in the Elite Eight.
The Bruins have already done the former, winning at Rupp Arena in December, and taking out the Tar Heels would no doubt prompt LaVar Ball to double down on his trash talk against former UNC great Jordan.
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With a Gonzaga-Kansas title game pairing and the Jayhawks as national champs, Moore is predicting just the eighth final between No. 1 seeds. That includes 2008, the last time Kansas won it all when it toppled Memphis in the only Final Four to feature four top seeds.
Kansas-based Moore has seen the the Jayhawks up close quite a bit this season, and he's leaning on those observations as well as how well senior guard Frank Mason has played. "Going with the guy who has been the best player in America who is surrounded by great talent seems like a smart pick," he wrote.
Gary Parrish, CBS Sports
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Smartest picks
Oregon losing three-point shooting rim protector Chris Boucher to a torn ACL during the Pac-12 tournament contributed to its tourney final loss to Arizona; it probably also led to the selection committee dropping it to a No. 3 seed.
Parrish is thinking the Ducks are a wounded animal ripe for getting bumped off early, and while he has them taking care of Iona in the first round, he's got them falling to No. 11 Rhode Island two days later.
The Rams are the only team seeded lower than fifth that Parrish has making it out of the first weekend, which might seem risk-averse, but it's a sensible approach in a bracket contest where the point values for correct picks double by the round.
East Tennessee State and Nevada are his biggest first-round upsets, but history has shown that those kind of upstarts rarely pull off two straight shockers.
Biggest gambles
Virginia has developed a reputation of underachieving in the NCAA tournament in recent years, getting knocked out early by lower-seeded Michigan State teams in 2014 and 2015 and then collapsing against Syracuse in last season's Elite Eight.
The Cavaliers struggled this season and only earned a No. 5 seed, but Parrish has a feeling that will mean they can overachieve this time around.
He's got the Cavs making the Elite Eight again by taking out defending national champion Villanova in the Sweet 16. Those teams met in January, with 'Nova winning by two, and Virginia's defensive intensity could be the difference in a rematch. But he stops short of giving the Cavs that elusive Final Four bid, instead advancing Duke.
Other experts on this list have UCLA making the Final Four, but Parrish stands out for pushing the Bruins all the way to the title game where it hasn't been since 2006. And he's got the program with the most NCAA championships (11) getting their first since 1995.
Trust meter
In explaining his UCLA choice, Parrish noted that he decided on the Bruins "a few weeks back" and then cited all of their assets.
However, he made no mention of their biggest flaw—defensive ability—and how that was a major factor in losing to Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals and nearly caused them to lose to USC in the quarterfinals.
He's not basing his national-title pick solely on a conference tournament performance, but not taking it into consideration seems unwise.
Jon Rothstein, CBS/FanRag Sports
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Smartest picks
Rothstein isn't recommending you buy stock in some of the most common upset choices, as he doesn't think UNC-Wilmington is enough of a thing of beauty to get past Virginia or that there's so much Dunk City in Florida Gulf Coast to warrant having the Eagles knock off Florida State.
He does have the Providence/USC First Four winner moving on to the Sweet 16, though, taking out SMU and Baylor along the way, making for a tougher weekend for those teams than spending it with the in-laws.
Biggest gambles
Kentucky getting bounced by Wichita State? Miami (Florida) in the Elite Eight? Louisville winning it all? If any or all of those predictions come true, they're going to create some palpable buzz across the college basketball landscape.
And it looks like even the best Fortune 500 companies can't run themselves forever. While Rothstein has Villanova making the Elite Eight—the furthest any defending national champion would have gone since Florida's back-to-back titles in 2006-07—he doesn't think the Wildcats have the DNA to get to the Final Four.
Trust meter
One of the sport's top insiders looks to be turning to some anonymous sources for a few of his selections. That's often enabled him to break news before anyone else, and it could mean he'll have scooped the rest of the field if his bracket pans out as predicted.
Or he could be horribly wrong, which would be the epitome of brutality.
This is March, though, where the unexpected becomes the ordinary.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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