Ohio (-3.5) 29 AKRON 20
Ohio is a pretty good team. The Bobcats are 3-2 with their two losses being by a combined 8 points to Connecticut and Tennessee. They're certainly much better than and Akron team that is struggling offensively with their backup quarterback at the helm.
The Zips have averaged just 4.3 yards per play in two games since starting quarterback Chris Jacquemain was suspended from the team (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and Ohio's stout defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl) should keep that attack in check.
Ohio's offense has been great in 3 games since veteran Theo Scott took over the starting quarterback job for an injured Boo Jackson, as the Bobcats have averaged 6.7 yppl, including 8.4 yppl last week against Bowling Green. Akron, meanwhile, has allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average team.
My math model gives Ohio a solid 55.1% chance of covering at -3 1/2 points.
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