#18 BYU (-17.0) 43 UNLV 22
Omar Clayton is returning at quarterback for UNLV, which gives the Rebels some hope of keeping up with what their horrendous defense is giving up to a potent BYU attack. BYU is 1.5 yppl better than average offensively (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and they're actually a bit better than that now that Harvey Unga has revived a rushing attack that missed him the first 2 games of the season.
UNLV's defense isn't as bad as the 775 yards 10.8 yppl they allowed in a 28-63 loss at Nevada last week, but they're still a bad defense that I rate at 1.4 yppl worse than average even after dampening the affect of that one horrible game.
BYU should score easily and while UNLV's offense is 0.3 yppl better than average with Clayton at quarterback, the Rebels are up against a solid Cougars' stop unit that has yielded just 5.2 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. My math model gives BYU a profitable 54.4% chance of covering.
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