Southern Miss (-1.5) 26 LOUISVILLE 19
Southern Miss will be without starting quarterback Austin Davis, which will most likely have a significant affect on their offense, but the Eagles are actually a much better defensive team than most people think. Southern Miss has allowed just 4.2 yppl in 5 games against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense and Louisville rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively even after adjusting for the likely return of starting quarterback Justin Burke, who missed last week's 10-35 loss to Pitt.
Martevious Young takes over Davis under center for Southern Miss and his ability to throw the ball has always been in question and is why he's been passed over as the starter. However, Young is a good runner and the Eagles are also blessed with running back Damion Fletcher, who has run for over 5000 yards in his great career. Even if Young is 1.3 yards per pass play worse than Davis
I would still have Southern Miss with a profitable 55% chance of covering the spread in this game and the Eagles apply to a 100-39-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their their strong defense and good rushing attack. I'll consider Southern Miss a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.
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