TULANE 28 Marshall (-4.0) 27November 2, 2016
Running back Darius Marshall is a one man team for, well, Marshall. Darius is averaging 160 rushing yards per game at 7.0 ypr and the Thundering Herd have an average offense because of him despite poor passing numbers. Tulane has allowed 5.0 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team) but the Green Wave are much tougher to run on now that their two starting defensive tackles, Oscar Ponce de Leon and Reggie Scott are in the lineup after missing the first two games and not starting in game 3.
With both starting last week the Green Wave held Army to 3.6 yprp, which is 0.5 yprp better than an average team would defend Army's rushing attack on the road. Marshall will still have good numbers, but Tulane appears to be a bit underrated if their defense can continue to play at a decent level with everyone now available (FS Sonnier is also back after missing the first two games).
Tulane has a pretty good offense, rating at 0.1 yards per play better than average with starting quarterback Joe Kemp in the game (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team).
My math model gives Tulane a 53% chance of covering but that percentage is probably even higher given Marshall's horrible road record under coach Snyder (just 7-17-1 ATS).
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