TEXAS TECH (-16.0) 33 Kansas St. 21
Kansas State starting quarterback Taylor Potts is likely going to miss this game after suffering a concussion, but backup Steven Sheffield ran the offense better in his place last week and looks like he could be an upgrade. Sheffield was 16 for 23 passing for 238 yards and led the team to 4 scoring drives while playing only about half the game. That was against a horrible New Mexico defense, but Sheffield's compensated numbers are better than those of Potts (although with a pretty small sample size).
Regardless of the quarterback I don't see the Red Raiders scoring at will against a better than average Kansas State defense that's allowed 5.0 yards per play in 4 games other than against lowly Tennessee Tech (I kept their game with U Mass in because the Minutemen would only be a few points worse than an average division 1A team). The Wildcats' 4 legit opponents would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team, so they've been 0.3 yppl better than average so far and should at least slow down the Red Raiders a bit.
Kansas State's offense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average, but Grant Gregory got his first start at quarterback last week and played well (8.1 yards per pass play against an ISU defense that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Texas Tech is 0.4 yppl better than average defensively, so the Red Raiders do have an edge over the Wildcats' offense, but Kansas State should have a decent number of scoring chances.
My math model gives Kansas State a profitable 54% chance of covering at +16 points and I'd consider the Wildcats a Strong Opinion if the line goes back up to +17 points or higher.
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