Texans vs. Patriots: TV Schedule, Predictions for 2017 AFC Divisional Game

The NFL postseason has a remarkable habit of stunning unsuspecting fans with enthralling tales of underdog heroics. A single-game elimination system sets the table for dramatic twists and turns more commonplace for a Hollywood thriller. Sometimes the football gods grease the wheels for an upset with a fumble or remarkable Hail Mary loaded with the power to defy the odds and rewrite history.

This will not be one of those times.

Although the tight-lipped New England Patriots would never say it aloud, they will essentially receive their second straight bye when hosting the Houston Texans.

New England once again ended 2016 atop the NFL mountaintop with a league-leading 14 wins and plus-192-point differentials. Houston, on the other hand, crawled past a mediocre AFC South without J.J. Watt and received another fortunate break when the Oakland Raiders were forced to start third-string quarterback Connor Cook rather than budding star Derek Carr.

Every other team standing wields a regular-season scoring margin above plus-40. The Texans, however, survived despite a minus-49 differential. They ended the season ranked No. 29, behind the San Francisco 49ers, in Football Outsiders' defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA). The seven other remaining squads, led by the top-ranked Patriots, placed inside the top 10.

Saturday night's AFC divisional-round matchup between the Patriots and Texans is poised to follow Wild Card Weekend's trend of the home team winning big.

Houston Texas at New England Patriots

When: Saturday, January 14, at 8:15 p.m. ET

Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts

Television: CBS

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

Preview

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

Those who watched any of Houston's Wild Card Round victory know of its top-ranked defense. Perhaps desperate to convince the viewers and themselves that the Texans belong, the ESPN broadcast booth mentioned the tidbit multiple times throughout their 27-14 win over the Raiders.

Tom Brady also acknowledged their "damn good defense" during his weekly radio interview on WEEI's Kirk and Callahan, per ESPN.com's Mike Reiss.

"There is nothing easy about this game for our offense. We're going to have to go grind it out," Brady said. "We have to go get our mind right, and we will. We had a good week of practice last week, and we need to carry it over into today—and all the way through Saturday night."

Brady has a point despite speaking in cliches, but fans rooting for a surprise shouldn't expect the four-time Super Bowl champion to shrivel. Houston finished 2-6 on the road, including a 27-0 Week 3 loss at New England in a game started by Jacoby Brissett. Against a defense that's No. 17 in DVOA against the run, LeGarrette Blount accrued 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

As noted by NFL.com's Chris Wesseling, the unit hasn't played at the same high-caliber level away from NRG Stadium:

Among those road games, they picked off Andrew Luck twice and contained Aaron Rodgers in a losing effort before he began his superhuman tear. They also faced Brissett, Sam Bradford, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles and Matt Cassell.

Brady is a tad better than that quintet. He even has an edge over Cook, who made his first career start in a road playoff game.

He definitely wields a superior portfolio to Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler, who impressed viewers simply by going 14-of-25 for 168 yards and a touchdown against Oakland's subpar defense. NFL.com's Marc Sessler had some fun with the discrepancy:

On Sept. 22, New England stifled him to 196 yards and a pick over 41 pass attempts. That was nothing out of the ordinary; he averaged 5.04 yards per pass attempt on the road.

The Patriots defense also boasts a misleading No. 1 ranking. Despite finishing the season No. 8 in yards allowed and No. 16 in defensive DVOA, nobody yielded fewer points than their 15.6 per game.

While a fortuitous schedule definitely helped their cause, it will benefit them again on Saturday night.

         

Prediction

The game's biggest intrigue will revolve around whether Houston beats the spread. According to OddsShark, New England is favored by a whopping 15 points.

The Pats achieved seven of their regular-season wins by a higher margin, and they're a team led by an all-time great quarterback hosting Osweiler. It may take a garbage-time score for the visitors to avoid a two-touchdown defeat.

While Houston has yet to score more than 27 points in a single game, New England averaged 30 points following Brady's return from a four-game suspension. There's no need to manufacture suspense for a game where none should exist.

New England has participated in each of the past five conference championship games. Make it six after it makes quick work of Houston.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Texans 13