Countdown to the Cup: Keeneland Stakes Preview

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

With the Breeders’ Cup being contested on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface for the second consecutive year (Nov. 6 and 7), synthetic prep races have taken on added importance. Of the eight main track races in last year’s Cup, the victor in six of them made his or her previous start on a synthetic track. The two other winners, Ventura in the Filly & Mare Sprint and European invader Raven’s Pass in the Classic, made their preps on turf. In eight races that are supposed to crown dirt champions for each division, not one Breeders’ Cup winner was coming out of a race on conventional dirt. Expect this trend to continue in 2009, as the connections of top dirt horses have decided to either stay home altogether (Rachel Alexandra, Fabulous Strike, Hot Dixie Chick) or venture out of their comfort zone to test their charges’ affinity for the fake stuff prior to shipping to California. Lexington, Kentucky’s historic Keeneland will host a number of these important preps this weekend on their Polytrack surface. 

Friday, October 9th

Race 8 - $250,000 Phoenix Stakes (G3) - 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up

The Phoenix is only a Grade 3, but the winner will automatically secure a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint starting gate as part of the “Win and You’re In” challenge. #7 FATAL BULLET headlines the field and is installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite off his excellent synthetic track form. He has five wins and one second from six starts at the distance on synthetic surfaces (including a runner-up behind Midnight Lute in last year’s BC Sprint) and his top Beyer Speed Figure of 109 is the best one-turn figure in the field. His dismal performance last out in the Vanderbilt can be forgiven because it was on conventional dirt, which he has proven that he despises. #4 CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field, albeit by the justified disqualification of Vineyard Haven last time in the King’s Bishop, but he must prove that his talent on dirt can be translated to synthetics. His only previous Polytrack start was as the favorite in last year’s Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity. He finished a rough-trip second that day only beaten two lengths in a race that did not confirm or deny his affinity for non-dirt surfaces. #6 PAST THE POINT exits the Grade 1 Woodward in which 3-year-old super filly Rachel Alexandra beat older males. He had an excuse for his near 18-length loss in that historic event and turns back to a sprint after showing speed in a route (always a potent angle), but his best efforts have been going longer on the dirt. He has the look of a horse who prefers good ol’ fashioned dirt. $760K earner #8 MY PAL CHARLIE gets the addition of blinkers for the Phoenix and at times has displayed significant ability, but he is another whose successes have come on a more traditional track. #10 SING BABY SING, who upset this race last year at more than 26-1, has a chance to repeat at another healthy price. He is coming into the Phoenix in similar form as he did last year, and could put in an effort that would win this if Fatal Bullet falters and nobody else takes to the surface. 

Race 9 - $500,000 Darley Alcibiades S. (G1) - 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-old fillies

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