WWE Royal Rumble By the Numbers: Using Historical Context to Predict 2017 Winner

Over the course of 29 Royal Rumbles, 359 wrestlers have entered at least once into the event's namesake Battle Royal with the hope of gaining a lasting victory on their resume, often accompanied by a WrestleMania championship match.

Over that time, it has become a tradition that has set in motion the Road to WrestleMania and created new stars.

Thus, predicting the Rumble winner has become one of wrestling fans' favorite pastimes in the month of January, allowing them to satisfy curiosities about the road ahead. As years have gone by, predictions have grown more educated while the odds for victories grow more clear.

The latest odds, detailed by OddsShark, have Goldberg as the most likely to win the 2017 Rumble. Other favorites include Randy Orton, Braun Strowman and The Undertaker. All are potential victors, but there is a way to make more accurate predictions for the winners of this year's Rumble.

Drawing on 29 years of history, statistics can be collected in order to most accurately view the trends of the match over the years. Not only will this collection of historical statistics make it more likely to predict the entry number for the winner but also all prominent entry numbers in Sunday's Rumble.

The Royal Rumble Data

Before making any predictions about the Royal Rumble, it was crucial to compile as much data as possible to accurately understand WWE's trends when booking the match. By seeing the outstanding trends, it becomes far easier to see which entry numbers are used for the top performers each year.

The following tables show the compiled results for each Rumble entry number, showing the average elimination rate, time survived and spots eliminated, as well as how many times those entering from that number have made it to the final four and won the Rumble.

Entry Numbers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Eliminations	2.3	1.4	1.0	0.7	1.3	1.1	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.8
Time Survived	27:33	21:23	9:58	13:04	11:43	14:38	10:56	12:39	10:10	11:13
Spot Eliminated	13	10.5	4.5	7	8.5	8	9.5	9	9.5	13
Final Four	7	4	1	1	2	1	2	3	0	1
Winners	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0

Entry Numbers	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Eliminations	1.1	0.9	0.9	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.9	1.5	1.4	0.6
Time Survived	13:51	10:19	11:46	9:48	12:54	9:40	11:07	11:44	11:38	8:54
Spot Eliminated	13	11	13	13	15	15	16	18	19	18
Final Four	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	3	7	2
Winners	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0

Entry Numbers	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
Eliminations	0.9	1.2	1.1	1.1	0.9	0.8	1.0	1.3	1.1	2.1
Time Survived	8:57	10:11	10:51	9:00	10:18	7:33	5:55	6:36	5:09	5:05
Spot Eliminated	20	21	22	23.5	23	22.5	22.5	25	25	26.5
Final Four	2	7	5	5	4	5	5	12	11	15
Winners	0	2	1	3	1	0	4	2	2	3

Note: All Rumble stats were compiled from Wikipedia results for every Royal Rumble. However, the final results are only for 30-man matches, thus excluding the 1988 and 2011 Rumbles. All elimination rates are rounded to the nearest 10th, and all spots eliminated are rounded to the nearest half.

After collecting these statistics, the next step involves discovering the trends, particularly pointing out which spots have most been used by the most top performers in the Rumble's history.

Credit: WWE.com

Least Prominent Entry Numbers in the Royal Rumble

The worst spots to enter into the Rumble are those without victors and only rare final-four showings. On top of that, these are the spots from which wrestlers have infrequently eliminated anyone and have often been used as victims for wrestlers who entered earlier.

1. No. 14

Not only has no one ever won from number 14, but only two wrestlers to have entered at that number are still even wrestling with the company: Goldust and Jinder Mahal. Cody Rhodes, as Stardust, was the latest victim to enter at No. 14. With the second-worst elimination rate and a laundry list of released wrestlers, it is career-threatening to enter number 14.

2. No. 16

You won't find a less remarkable spot to enter in the Rumble. No one has ever won from 16, and no one eliminates anyone when they enter at No. 16, which boasts the joint-lowest average rate in the regard. Goldust and The Miz, who have had success in the Rumble, have entered at this spot twice without success.

3. No. 9

One of two spots to never produce a final-four competitor, No. 9 is also within the top five for worst elimination rates. Despite a list of entrants that includes Shawn Michaels, Yokozuna and Owen Hart, no No. 9 has ever been able to take the spot and make even the slightest of marks on the legacy of the Rumble.

4. No. 12

The other spot to not have any entrant make the final four, the average No. 12 entrant has had a slightly higher elimination rate than their No. 9 counterpart over the years. The average entrant lasts 10 minutes from this spot, which is respectable but not when it has never led to a major showing, even with entrants including The Undertaker and Triple H.

5. No. 3

While Ric Flair won from No. 3 in 1992, the spot has been cursed since, with a less than 10-minute average survival time and easily the lowest average spot eliminated at 4.5. It has often been the spot for those who play cannon fodder for the high profile entrants at No. 1 and No. 2.

Surprising Outlier: No. 26

In spite of being one of the most favorable spots in the Rumble, no wrestler has ever won from No. 26, with the average wrestler in this spot not making it to the final seven and only five total wrestlers making it to the final four with the seventh-worst elimination rate.

The only strong performances from the spot were by Big Show (and it could be argued he technically won) in 2000 and Kurt Angle in 2002, with both making the final two.

Credit: WWE.com

Most Prominent Entry Numbers in the Royal Rumble

These are the spots every wrestler should covet. While a few can lead to grueling battles, they also give the best stories to the audience so that a victory from the spot raises the legacy of the entrant. It is likely these spots will produce the top stars each year and are reserved for those who are the favorites to win.

1. No. 30

This is not a great surprise, as the best number logically in the Rumble is also the most prominent, with three winners and only one of two spots with an average elimination rate above two. However, the No. 30 winners all came during the last decade, with Undertaker in 2007 and John Cena in 2008 winning in back-to-back years and Triple H winning last year, making its prominence a recent trend.

2. No. 1

This spots holds the longest time survived on average, though that 27:33 average is abnormally high—nearly double the third-highest survival time. This spot has produced two winners, the highest elimination rate at 2.3 and has led to the average entrant surviving longer than anyone from No. 2 to No. 13. The winners were Shawn Michaels in 1995 and Chris Benoit in 2004.

3. No. 2

The only other number to produce a survival time above 20 minutes, No. 2 has also produced two victors with a top-five elimination rate. Four men from this spot have made it to the final four, with three making the final two. The winners were Vince McMahon in 1999 (the only winner with only one elimination to their name) and Rey Mysterio in 2006.

4. No. 27

No. 27 is the only spot to ever produce four winners. However, it has not been as prominent for those who have not won, with only one other wrestler making it to the final four, an average spot eliminated lower than any number from 25 to 30 and only one elimination on average each Rumble. The winners to come from 27 were Big John Studd, Yokozuna, Bret Hart and Stone Cold Steve Austin.

5. No. 24

Much like No. 27, No. 24 has been a great place for a few wrestlers but also led to many letdowns. It is hard, though, not to list the spot that has given three wrestlers the victory despite only five making it to the final four and only boasting an average elimination rate of 1.1. The winners were WWE's big three: Hulk Hogan, Austin and The Rock.

Surprise Outlier: No. 15

While the teens in a Rumble are mostly a wasteland for successful performers, No. 15 has become a special-attraction spot for wrestlers, with the sixth-longest survival time, the third-most eliminations and three final-four showings, including two making the final two.

No one has ever won from No. 15, but it has still been a spot from which Cody Rhodes, Roman Reigns (his 12-elimination performance) and Rusev made their mark.

Credit: WWE.com

Predicting the Royal Rumble Field

Even though it is easy to compile data and roughly figure out the best and worst spots in the Rumble, using that to predict the top performers takes a step beyond the stats. As each Rumble is booked separately, the best analyzed speculation is still just that: speculation.

All that can be done is to extrapolate trends in momentum over the years, profiling the roster based on which Superstars were in certain spots previously.

1. Sami Zayn - No. 1
2. The Miz - No. 2
3. Dolph Ziggler - No. 3
4. Kofi Kingston - No. 4
5. Apollo Crews - No. 5
6. Dean Ambrose - No. 6
7. Kalisto - No. 7
8. Rusev - No. 8
9. Big E - No. 9
10. Big Cass - No. 10
11. Chris Jericho - No. 11
12. Xavier Woods - No. 12
13. TJ Perkins - No. 13
14. James Ellsworth - No. 14
15. Samoa Joe - No. 15
16. Luke Gallows - No. 16
17. Cesaro - No. 17
18. Braun Strowman - No. 18
19. Baron Corbin - No. 19
20. Randy Orton - No. 20
21. Sheamus - No. 21
22. Luke Harper - No. 22
23. Brock Lesnar - No. 23
24. Bray Wyatt - No. 24
25. Big Show - No. 25
26. Mojo Rawley - No. 26
27. Goldberg - No. 27
28. Kane - No. 28
29. Finn Balor - No. 29
30. The Undertaker - No. 30

All the legends making appearances were clumped near the end on prominent spots because of their ages, with The Undertaker at No. 30 because he has already entered at that spot three times (more than anyone else). This would also make him the only man to have the same entry number four times.

Many of the younger top stars are given early spots, while the middle section of the Rumble follows the usual trend of containing most of the least likely winners. Only Samoa Joe and Finn Balor were included as those most likely to make unannounced entries into the Rumble.

Credit: WWE.com

Predicting the Most Prominent Rumble Performances of the 2017 Royal Rumble

These are predictions made in two parts. The statistics above make it possible to predict the most prominent entry numbers in the Rumble, while analysis of history later on makes it easier to attempt to predict which wrestlers will be the most prominent. Thus, these final predictions are a combination of statistical and historical analysis with more than a bit of speculation.

Longest Time Lasted: No. 1. Sami Zayn

Sami Zayn is the ideal underdog star of a match like this as someone who can run the table from start to finish without getting too many eliminations. He's the right blend of a great worker and someone with fantastic stamina. Having this to add to his dynamic with Strowman will only aid the Rumble as whole. In the last six Rumbles, the longest-lasting performer has started at No. 1 five times.

2nd-Longest Time Lasted: No. 2. The Miz

The Miz has the perfect story for a long-lasting competitor in the Rumble with his feud against Daniel Bryan. He could take stretches of the match off on commentary, then make one crucial mistake in the homestretch. The plus-20-minute survival time average of No. 2 always makes its entrants likely to last longer than anyone but those at No. 1.

Most Eliminations: No. 18. Braun Strowman

Braun Strowman has been booked as a lethal force heading into Sunday's pay-per-view, with it seeming impossible to take him out. It only makes sense that this would translate to a dominant performance in the Rumble, with seven eliminations or more. No. 18 is one of the top four spots for average eliminations and has not had an outstanding elimination performance since HBK got eight in 1996.

2nd-Most Eliminations: No. 23. Brock Lesnar

Brock Lesnar should come into the Rumble hungry and angry, which makes a lot of eliminations on his part a certainty, especially if he enters ahead of Goldberg. No. 23 is a spot with an average elimination rate, but any spot Lesnar enters will be a good spot for him to dominate, particularly in a packed Rumble in which there may be a crowd still in the mix before he enters.

Credit: WWE.com

Final 4: No. 1. Sami Zayn, No. 19. Baron Corbin, No. 29. Finn Balor and No. 30. The Undertaker

All four of these spots have yielded at least seven final-four performers before, and they give a decent spread of stories to tell, with one wrestler lasting all the way through the match and two who are still fresh. This final four would give Raw and SmackDown representatives with four men who could all win.

Zayn would be the least likely winner, with his recent low-priority treatment, but he would be a fan favorite. Baron Corbin makes for the ideal final-two monster heel for one of the faces to overcome. The Undertaker could be victorious, but he has no reason to win the match, as his WrestleMania contest will already be main event-caliber.

Alternate: No. 24. Bray Wyatt

With the number already boasting three winners, it would make sense for WWE to continue to put more major performers at No. 24, and Bray Wyatt makes for an ideal alternate for SmackDown's last-standing representative if WWE wants him to become a bigger deal. It is likely that only one SmackDown performer will make the final four.

Winner: No. 29. Finn Balor

Returning injured stars have often been successful in the Rumble, and there have been three winners making returns to the ring: Triple H in 2002, Cena in 2008 and Edge in 2010. No. 29 is also a prominent number that seems underutilized for a winner, boasting only two victors (including the aforementioned Edge performance) despite its abnormally high numbers in most prominent Rumble categories.

Sunday's Rumble is one of the most unpredictable in years, with no clear favorites based on the momentum going into the match. When the clear winner has not been built up over the course of weeks of television, the victor is often a surprise, shifting the Road to WrestleMania radically just as it begins.

Balor was already on a fast track to success before his injury last summer, and he should be able to put on a top-notch singles performance at 'Mania.

All of this, though, is speculative. Even with all the data and analysis of history, the likelihood of these entry numbers and wrestlers being the most prominent performers on Sunday is still fairly low, but it is good to have the context, especially when eventually looking back at the 2017 Royal Rumble.