Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to avenge their worst loss of the season when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers as small home favorites in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs Sunday. The Chiefs were routed 43-14 by the Steelers as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 4 before they went on to win 10 of their next 12 games en route to the AFC West title.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.2-23.9, Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh saw quarterback Ben Roethlisberger throw for 300 yards and five touchdowns and running back Le'Veon Bell rush for 144 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting, and anything close to that kind of production from those two players will almost definitely result in another win.

Roethlisberger was in a walking boot after last week's 30-12 win over the Miami Dolphins, per ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler, but he's considered probable for this week as the team prepares for Kansas City. The Steelers have won four of the past five meetings, and the lone loss was without Roethlisberger.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs got a much-needed week off and hope to use that to their advantage here as the healthier team. They have seen rookie wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce take on much larger roles in the offense since the first meeting with Pittsburgh, as the latter totaled more than 100 receiving yards in five of the last seven games.

Hill has also proved to be a dangerous all-around threat and could score anytime he touches the ball. Ultimately, this game will come down to minimizing turnovers, something Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith does extremely well.

Smart pick

The Steelers have failed to cover the number in their last four trips to Arrowhead Stadium, and they have also gone 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games after consecutive home games.

Those two trends obviously favor the Chiefs, who are just 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 playoff games. Look for Kansas City to pick up the home win and cover at online betting sites.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs.

The total has gone over in 17 of the Steelers' last 23 games in the playoffs.

The Steelers are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.