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Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

GREEN BAY, WI - JANUARY 8:  Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers walks off the field after beating the New York Giants 38-13 in the NFC Wild Card game at Lambeau Field on January 8, 2017 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistJanuary 10, 2017

The Green Bay Packers will look to extend their winning streak to eight games when they visit the Dallas Cowboys as small road underdogs in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs Sunday. The Packers have gone 6-1 against the spread in winning seven straight games, only failing to cover in a 30-27 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 15.

 

Point spread: The Cowboys opened as four-point favorites; the total was 51 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.7-17.9 Cowboys (NFL picks on every game)

 

Why the Packers can cover the spread

No team is more dangerous right now than Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers under center, especially after blowing out the New York Giants 38-13 as five-point home favorites last Sunday. Rodgers is playing better than any quarterback in the NFL, throwing 19 touchdown passes with no interceptions during the team's winning streak.

The Packers have also won five of the past six meetings with the Cowboys, who ended a five-game series skid with a 30-16 victory at Lambeau Field back in Week 6.

 

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas won the first meeting as a 5.5-point road underdog behind Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Ezekiel Elliott, who rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries. Quarterback Dak Prescott also threw three touchdown passes for the Cowboys, including two to wide receiver Cole Beasley.

Fellow wide receiver Dez Bryant missed that matchup because of injury and nearly beat Green Bay two years ago in the playoffs, but his potential game-winning touchdown catch was ruled incomplete instead. Dallas, with an NFC-best 21.9 percent chance to win Super Bowl 51, according to PredictionMachine.com, is riding a seven-game home winning streak and has gone 5-2 ATS during that stretch at AT&T Stadium.

 

Smart pick

This is a huge test for the Cowboys, who have lost four in a row in this round of the playoffs, going 1-3 ATS at online betting sites in those games. Meanwhile, the Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven postseason games as road underdogs, and they are a much different team than they were earlier in the year.

The experience of Rodgers will be the difference, so look for him to keep this game close and give Green Bay a shot to win it at the end in a thriller.

 

Betting trends

The Cowboys are 7-0 straight up and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at home.

The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the playoffs as road underdogs.

The total has gone over in five of the Packers' last six games on the road.

 

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark.

All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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