Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) will try to extend their winning streak to eight when they host the Miami Dolphins (10-6) on Sunday as big home favorites in the second of two AFC Wild Card matchups.

The Steelers won the AFC North after reeling off seven straight wins following a four-game skid around midseason, going 5-1-1 against the spread during that stretch.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.6-14.8 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins have covered the spread in the past three meetings with Pittsburgh, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and they should be pumped to be making their first playoff appearance since 2008.

Miami head coach Adam Gase did a remarkable job guiding this team to nine wins in 10 games after a 1-4 start, beginning with a 30-15 rout of the Steelers back in Week 6. The defense pressured Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who suffered a torn meniscus, while running back Le'Veon Bell totaled just 10 carries for 53 yards. That will be the game plan again here.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers are a much different team than they were in the first meeting, as Bell averaged nearly 140 rushing yards over the last six games he played, topping the century mark five times. In the first six games, he managed to total more than 81 rushing yards only once, coming in his regular-season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs.

With Bell running like he has been lately, Roethlisberger does not need to run around in an effort to make plays and force throws. The combo of Roethlisberger, Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown is the NFL's best group at their respective positions.

Smart pick

Pittsburgh has really thrived in the role of favorite since losing to the Dallas Cowboys 35-30 at home in Week 10. While the Steelers have not fared well recently in the playoffs, they will be focused on getting back on track and avenging that earlier loss at Miami.

The quarterback situation for the Dolphins, with Ryan Tannehill hoping to practice for the first time since his knee injury and backup Matt Moore being a slight downgrade, is also concerning. Look for that to be too much for the Dolphins to overcome in a big loss while failing to cover at online betting sites.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in three of the Dolphins' last four games against the Steelers.

The Steelers are 7-0 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

The total has gone over in the Dolphins' last six games.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.