NEVADA (-10.5) 38 Louisiana Tech 24October 18, 2016
Nevada is now 17-3 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault after destroying UNLV 63-28 last week while racking up 775 total yards at 10.8 yards per play. That was Nevada's first win of the season, but the Wolf Pack are better than a 1-3 team and have been quite unlucky in being -8 in fumbles lost margin in just 4 games.
After starting the season with a blowout loss at Notre Dame, the Wolf Pack lost to Colorado State because of a -5 in turnover margin (they out-gained CSU), lost by 10 at home to a good Missouri team, and then beat up on UNLV last week. Overall, Nevada has averaged 6.9 yppl and allowed 6.3 yppl this season against a better than average schedule of teams and they should continue their climb back towards .500 with a win tonight over a worse than average Louisiana Tech team.
The Bulldogs are 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), average defensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would average 5.5 yppl), and worse than average in special teams. Tech's defense did a good job last week at home against a good Hawaii pass attack, but they gave up over 300 rushing yards to both Auburn and Navy, the two good rushing teams that they've faced and Nevada should run all over them tonight given that the Wolf Pack have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play or more in all 4 of their games and are averaging 7.6 yprp for the season.
Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is also more than capable of having success throwing the ball and my math model calls for an 11 point victory. There is extra home field advantage here in Reno, so I'll call for a 14 point margin.
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