Now or Never: 10 Franchises with Closing Contention Windows
As The Office's Andy Bernard reflected on his years working for Dunder Mifflin, he regretted not appreciating every special moment.
"I wish there was a way to know you're in the good ol' days before you've actually left them," he said during the NBC series' bittersweet series finale.
Sports fans can learn a valuable lesson from the Cornell alum played be Ed Helms. Glory doesn't last forever, so appreciate the good times, even if they don't result in a championship.
Before berating a flawed, fringe playoff contender, consider how Cleveland Browns fans feel as they look ahead to an 0-16 parade. They'd cherish a 9-7 finish with hopes of playing even one postseason contest.
At best, the following franchises have the faintest championship hopes. Some others are already on the way down, and don't be surprised if they sink lower during the next few years. Aging stars and pending free-agent cases could lead to some hard times ahead.
Nobody knows what the imminent future holds, so cherish every victory now.
Chicago Bulls
1 of 10
Just when the Chicago Bulls appeared ready to tear the house down, they settled for some quick repair jobs.
Seeing longtime stalwarts Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah in New York Knicks attire probably wasn't easy for Bulls fans. Yet it gave the franchise an opportunity to start over around Jimmy Butler.
After missing the postseason for the first time since 2008, they had no reason to aim for another 42-40 record like last year. They suffered through six losing seasons after Michael Jordan's departure, but they also won six championships in eight years. No true fan would bail during another much-needed remodeling.
Chicago instead went for flashy free-agent signings, welcoming point guard Rajon Rondo and hometown hero Dwyane Wade. At 6-4 with the NBA's seventh-best offensive rating, per Basketball-Reference.com, they have started the season well enough.
If a team stacked with poor perimeter shooters continues to shoot three-pointers at a roughly league-average rate, they'll return to the playoffs. Depending on their seeding, maybe they even advance past the first round.
Even that's optimistic. While Wade is suddenly enjoying the best outside shooting of his career, the 34-year-old is no longer an All-Star talent. Besides, he and Rondo are likely gone after two seasons anyway. Then what?
Either they continue the cycle of staying stuck in the middle, or the organization rips off the bandage.
Dallas Mavericks
2 of 10
OK, so the Dallas Mavericks' window already looks shut. A 2-7 start isn't what owner Mark Cuban—who has made a living locating mid-tier free agents who fall through the cracks as everyone chases the stars—anticipated when signing Harrison Barnes and trading for Andrew Bogut. Alongside Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews, head coach Rick Carlisle's crew was supposed to give Dirk Nowitzki one or two more postseason shots.
That's not looking too likely now. The 38-year-old big man, who hasn't played since Nov. 4 due to an Achilles injury, has gone 14-of-39 in three games. After watching so many of his peers (Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen) retire, one must wonder how much longer he can keep playing.
A healthy Nowitzki could propel Dallas to its 16th playoff bid in 17 years. (They went 41-41 in 2012-13.) Yet they wouldn't stand to make much noise, and a drought is likely to follow.
Cuban's track record suggests an opposition to tanking, but that's because he has always wielded a superstar to build around since 1998. After the Mavericks appeared to sign DeAndre Jordan last year, he admitted to ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon that he planned to blow up the team if he didn't land the center.
He didn't follow through with that doomsday approach, but it will take some masterful maneuvering to guide a roster headlined by Barnes into frequent playoff participation. Whether the Mavericks tank or not, some losing seasons are on the horizon.
Detroit Tigers
3 of 10
The Detroit Tigers' stars are old and well-compensated, a dangerous combination for any MLB franchise.
Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann and Anibal Sanchez will combine to make $130.925 million next season. Several teams will likely enter 2017 with a smaller team payroll.
Upton, the youngest of the bunch at 29, hit .246/.310/.465 with a career-worst 28.6 strikeout percentage in the first of his six-year contract with Detroit. Zimmermann also floundered after last winter's massive payday, posting a 4.87 ERA in 105.1 innings.
Sanchez submitted a ghastly 5.87 ERA in 2016, and Martinez is a 37-year-old designated hitter with a troubling injury history.
Cabrera and Verlander are still going strong, but both will turn 34 early next year. After a bounce-back year, the Tigers must hope Verlander can avoid a downward spiral that has plagued many other workhorse aces for three more years.
Although he's still a superstar hitter, Cabrera is under contract into his age-40 season. Detroit will hope this day is far away, but that deal is going to eventually turn into a massive liability.
Following owner Mike Ilitch's win-now edict, the Tigers have spent heavily in hopes of capturing a title. After leaving the World Series empty-handed in 2006 and 2012, they may struggle to stay above .500 in 2018.
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Houston Texans
4 of 10
On the surface, everything is going according to plan for the Houston Texans. They lead the AFC South at 6-3 on the strength of victories against all three division adversaries, placing them firmly in control of securing their second consecutive playoff nod.
They also have a minus-27 point differential while scoring fewer points (161) than any AFC squad. Brock Osweiler, their newly signed franchise quarterback, has accrued the NFL's fewest yards per pass attempt (5.61).
They must stay atop the AFC South without J.J. Watt, who is on the injured reserve with a back injury. The Texans also have to worry about their three-time Defensive Player of the Year remaining a franchise cornerstone.
Even without their superstar defensive lineman, now is the time to exploit a weak division that could soon revitalize. Having scored 202 points over their last six games, the Tennessee Titans look especially potent behind second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota and a formidable offensive line.
Onlookers expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to finally take a leap to relevancy. It certainly hasn't happened during their 2-7 start, but there's too much young talent festering to forever stay buried at the bottom.
The Indianapolis Colts remain flawed around Andrew Luck, but they still have a 27-year-old franchise quarterback. A bad division won't stay bad forever—look at the NFC East—so the Texans could face a rude awakening.
New Orleans Saints
5 of 10
Drew Brees won't churn out 5,000-yard seasons forever, and the New Orleans Saints are ill-prepared for life without their franchise quarterback posting elite numbers. Even with him, they have struggled to remain relevant.
The Saints followed a strong run with two 7-9 seasons, and a third could be on the way for the 4-5 team. On the other hand, they could still feasibly take the subpar NFC South, which the 6-4 Atlanta Falcons lead. For that to happen, they'll need an MVP-caliber finish from their 37-year-old passer.
And that may not get the job done. He's already averaging 332.4 passing yards per game—putting him on pace for his fifth 5,000-yard season—with a 69.9 completion percentage. New Orleans leads the NFL in total offense, but only three teams (Colts, Browns and San Francisco 49ers) have allowed more yards per game.
That's an improvement from finishing both 2014 and 2015 with the NFL's second-worst defense.
Without a massive defensive revamping, the Saints won't give Brees a chance to earn his second Super Bowl ring. If major changes don't occur before he hangs up his cleats, they're then in major trouble.
Los Angeles Clippers
6 of 10
Much like the Oklahoma City Thunder last summer, the Los Angeles Clippers could take a massive step back if they can't take a step forward in 2017.
Chris Paul and Blake Griffin can both opt out of their deals next summer, and it's highly likely they do so given the seismic cap spike. For all of their regular-season success, Lob City has yet to reach the Western Conference Finals, and falling short of expectations is a surefire way for the public to dig into perceived chemistry issues.
The Clippers have quelled drama by starting 10-1 with an NBA-best scoring margin of 16.6. Per Basketball-Reference.com, Paul leads the NBA in player efficiency rating (33.6) and win shares (3.0). They're easily a top-four team, but what if that's not enough to conquer the San Antonio Spurs and/or Golden State Warriors?
If they all stick together and stay healthy, the Clippers have the pieces to block a Warriors-Cleveland Cavaliers Finals rematch. Although Paul, J.J. Redick and DeAndre Jordan rose to the occasion in Griffin's absence last year, 27-year-old super athletes who can average 20 points and 10 rebounds aren't easily replaceable. Losing Paul would especially dash their title aspirations.
Another shortcoming could discourage them into thinking this group won't win a championship. After toiling through decades of ineptitude, Clippers fans understand the rarity of such a stellar unit. Paul and/or Griffin, however, might desire a new challenge in a change of scenery.
Or maybe they'll both join Golden State. (Just kidding. Unless...)
Memphis Grizzlies
7 of 10
The Memphis Grizzlies never seemed to fit in with the rest of the Western Conference.
As more exciting opponents piled up points behind popular superstars, the Grizzlies have notched six straight playoff nods behind an old-school, defensive-minded approach. It got them as far as the Western Conference Finals in 2013, but they're currently in danger of missing the postseason altogether.
Under new head coach David Fizdale, they're 5-5 with the NBA's sixth-worst offensive rating, per Basketball-Reference.com. They anticipated forward Chandler Parsons helping their lackluster shooting, but his sluggish start is part of the reason they rank 28th in field-goal percentage (.422).
Formerly a great point guard everyone called underrated even though nobody questioned his merit, Mike Conley is now the league's highest-paid player on account of perfect timing. At 29, he's also their youngest star behind 31-year-old center Marc Gasol and 35-year-old forward Zach Randolph.
The playoff fixture hasn't had a chance to draft upper-tier talent since drafting Conley in 2007. As a result, they now reside in basketball purgatory, fighting for a low playoff seed that will likely amount to a swift playoff exit anyway. They're also, however, not bad enough to receive a top-10 pick without some considerable lottery luck.
Barring some reinforcements, Memphis has the makings of a No. 8 seed to sacrifice to the Golden State Warriors. In another year or two, their veterans may not meet that bar.
New York Rangers
8 of 10
This season's most pleasant surprise, the New York Rangers have stormed out of the gate to score 65 goals in 16 games. The Philadelphia Flyers place second with 55 goals.
A faster attack has decimated the NHL, and 10 players have already tallied double-digit points. Star goalie Henrik Lundqvist praised the team's depth to ESPN.com's Joe McDonald:
"That's the biggest thing -- the main thing is our depth. So many guys have been scoring and helping out offensively, but at the same time we're taking responsibility defensively. I feel like we have four lines that can make it happen, and that's a big thing to have. When you play 82 games, you can't rely on just one or two lines. Our third line has been on fire.
"
If J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, Jimmy Vesey and Co. all maintain this torrid play, New York's championship window will furnish a cool breeze inside Madison Square Garden for years. For their sake, let's hope this hot start is sustainable.
According to QuantHockey.com, the Rangers have the oldest average age of any team in the league at 28.27 years. Despite some promising young players catching fire early, they're still built on a veteran foundation, of course led by Lundqvist.
The 34-year-old, who yielded a career-worst 2.48 goals per game last season, won't anchor the defense forever. Management has fortunately wised up to this reality by stashing speed and depth.
It's too early to deem this season's opening the new reality, but now is the perfect time for the Blueshirts to earn Lundqvist a ring. They might not get another chance.
Seattle Mariners
9 of 10
Despite their best efforts to assemble a powerhouse, the Seattle Mariners have still not reached the postseason since 2001's record-breaking 116-46 season. Having built around a few key veterans, they need to snap this drought pronto.
After hitting an underwhelming .287/.334/.446 during the second year of his 10-year deal, Robinson Cano bounced back to blast a career-high 39 home runs in 2016. While his offensive revival allows the Mariners to temporarily breathe a sigh of relief, the 34-year-old's prior signs of regression should still concern them. He is, after all, under contract past his 40th birthday.
Originally seen as a risky overpay, Nelson Cruz's four-year, $58 million deal now stands tall as a huge bargain following back-to-back campaigns with over 40 homers. They only have two more years of the slugger's services before he enters free agency at age 38.
Seattle's biggest concern, however, is Felix Hernandez. After making at least 30 starts in 10 straight seasons, the ace was limited to 25 ineffective starts in 2016, over which he registered a 3.82 ERA and career worsts in strikeouts (7.16) and walks (3.82) per nine innings.
A steady No. 2 behind the ace for four years, Hisashi Iwakuma also faltered with a 4.12 ERA and 6.65 K/9. With the veterans regressing, the Mariners need James Paxton and Taijuan Walker to step up as front-line starters.
The Mariners don't have enough depth on their big league and minor league rosters for their stars to be anything short of spectacular.
Toronto Blue Jays
10 of 10
Envisioning this potential doomsday on the horizon, the Toronto Blue Jays went all-in before 2015's trade deadline. They risked their future by trading multiple prospects in separate deals for Troy Tulowitzki and pending free agent David Price.
They capitalized, making their first playoff appearance since 1993. Despite watching Price sign with Boston Red Sox, they earned their second straight American League Championship Series appearance behind their power bats and better-than-expected pitching.
With Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista both free agents, the Blue Jays might have missed their chance to win it all.
Over the past six years, via FanGraphs, Encarnacion and Bautista rank first and fifth with 210 and 195 home runs, respectively. After signing designated hitter Kendrys Morales, Encarnacion's tenure in Toronto especially seems over.
They still have 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson and two promising young pitchers in Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, but a lineup without those veteran sluggers would take a massive hit. Tulowitzki and catcher Russell Martin—who turns 34 before Opening Day with three years left on his lucrative deal—are on the declining end of their aging curves. Veteran starters Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ are temporary stopgaps rather than future fixtures.
Maybe they can retain Bautista and find help elsewhere on the open market. Perhaps, as Toronto Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri suggested, per Toronto Sun's Steve Simmons, current events will make Canada a more desirable landing spot than ever.
For now, don't expect another ALCS trip in 2017.
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