SEC Picks Week Six: Darkness Falls On Florida In LSU's Death Valley

Tim CroleySenior Analyst IOctober 6, 2009

Week Five proved that even the best of luck must come to an end at some point. After dropping the two biggest games of the weekend, I limped to a 5-2 finish, my worst week to date this season. My overall record is now 37-5.


Week Four Recap:


Florida was afforded a week of rest for Tebow during their bye. Will it be enough to overcome LSU in Death Valley this Saturday night? We shall see.


Alabama cruised to a fairly easy win over Kentucky. Some were thrilled with the performance, others were fearful in an attempt to compare the Tide to Florida’s pummeling of the Wildcats in the previous week. I predicted a 34-10 win for the Crimson Tide, while they won by the final of 38-20.


Auburn is without a doubt the surprise team of the year after starting the season 5-0. Tennessee found themselves on the bitter end of a tough home loss to the Tigers. I predicted a 20-17 win for the Vols, but Auburn avoided a late onslaught and hung on to win by four points, 26-22.


Arkansas did what everyone knew they were capable of doing: putting up big numbers on offense. So far it doesn’t look like any team from Texas can win in Jerry’s new house, as they simply crushed Texas A&M by a score of 47-19. I had the Hogs winning by a much closer score of 35-31.


Georgia Tech did exactly what I expected against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are improving, but they are not back to big boy competition yet. The final score was 42-31 in favor of the Yellow Jackets, while I had Tech winning 31-23.


South Carolina did their usual thing, picking on the likes of high school competition. But hey, everyone has to play one of these games at least once a season, right? When the final second rolled off the clock, the Gamecocks reigned over SC State by the final of 38-14. I had them winning 42-6.


At no point in the game did I foresee Ole Miss falling to Vanderbilt, but they did look a little lethargic following their upset to Carolina. Ole Miss won 23-7, while I had them winning 28-7.


Georgia had a heartbreaking loss to LSU this past Saturday in the Game of the Week, which has raised questions and controversy everywhere concerning the celebration rule in college football. We’ll never know how things might have been, but that’s all in the game, fair or not.

I picked the ‘Dawgs and Tigers to have an offensive feast, but defense roared its head, keeping the score 20-13 in favor of the LSU Tigers. I predicted UGA to win it 41-35. Either way, it was close to the end!


Week Five Summary: The Ole Miss game went as expected. This was my closest game of the week, picking them to win 28-7, when in fact they won 23-7.  The UGA vs. LSU game was nothing like I expected. It was almost like old fashion SEC football, until the last five minutes, of course. Well, on to...


Week Six Picks:


No. 17 Auburn 5-0 (2-0) at Arkansas 2-2 (0-2)


As previously mentioned, Auburn is the surprise team of the season, so far. Not only are they surprising the SEC, but they are catching the eyes of those watching around the entire college football world. Improvement is the only way to describe the Tigers.


Arkansas is much improved, too, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The one thing that will be in their favor this week is the lack of pass rush provided by the Tigers. I look for some points to be put up in a shootout between these two teams.


The difference in the game is the fact that Auburn hasn’t faced a good passing quarterback this season. They will come Saturday.


Prediction: Arkansas 38 Auburn 34



No. 3 Alabama 5-0 (2-0) at No. 20 Mississippi 3-1 (1-1)


I’m not a firm believer that Alabama has released all they have on offense. I do believe they will show a bit more this week against a good Rebel defense, so watch out for another wrinkle or two in this potent attack.


On the defensive side of the ball, the issues that became evident form the absence of Hightower will only be eliminated with time. Each week will prove that the shuffle in player positions will progress. Look for even more cohesion this week as they try to rattle Snead.


Ole Miss is looking a bit average following the Carolina loss and the sluggish Vanderbilt win. They have the pieces in place to beat any team if they all unite. The defense is solid, and the offense can be lethal at times.


The problem is, in my opinion, that Houston Nutt can do less with more talent than anyone in the nation. That has been my conviction for as long as I have ever seen him coach, and will ever be.


For these reasons I predict the Crimson Elephants to prevail.


Prediction: ‘Bama 34 Ole Miss 21



Georgia 3-2 (2-1) at Tennessee 2-3 (0-2)


Georgia may be limping, but they are not completely down just yet. Whether they were robbed or not has to be put out of their minds this week. I for one believe they will move on, much like they did following their Oklahoma State loss, to put up some points and play like there’s no tomorrow.


Tennessee, on the other hand, in spite of two tough performances against Auburn and Florida, just isn’t back to elite status yet. I am expecting much of the same thing we witnessed from last week’s game in Neyland. The Vols play tough, but lose to a determined Bulldog squad this week.


Prediction: UGA 27 UT 14



Houston 3-1 (0-1) at Mississippi State 2-2 (1-1)


Houston looked like they might run the table and become a BCS buster this season. Now, I’m not saying that will not happen, but they’ve got a tough hill to climb if they want to get back to that position. They can make a big statement by rolling over the Bulldogs this week.


Mississippi State has become almost too much like Vanderbilt: predictable! That’s not to say that they are as bad as the Commodores, after all, they did manage to beat Vandy a couple of weeks ago.

But you can foresee heartbreak nearly every week on their schedule. They hang around with better competition, only to lose at the end. Expect much of the same this week.


Prediction: Houston 28 MSU 20



Kentucky 2-2 (0-2) at No. 25 South Carolina 4-1 (1-1)


Kentucky has been deflated for two straight weeks. With all the talk of basketball on the horizon it appears that UK may be confused with their inability to dribble a football.


The South Carolina Gamecocks are silently creeping into the top 25, and may be looking a little too dangerous for the Wildcats this week. Unless they are looking ahead to the possible homecoming spoiler they can play next week, they should win this one by more than a few.


Prediction: USC 31 UK 17



Vanderbilt 2-3 (0-3) at Army 2-3


These two evenly matched teams don’t have much to brag about, and I, quiet frankly, don’t have much to write about, either.


On a rare note, I’ll pick Vanderbilt to win this game.


Prediction: Vandy 14 Army 13



Game of the Week: No. 1 Florida 4-0 (2-2) No. 4 LSU 5-0 (3-0)


A night game in Death Valley, against the number one team in the country, it all smells like College Gameday to me!


LSU survived the game between the hedges last week. Can they whip up some “Bayou Voodoo” this week? Or will they even have to?


At the time this article will be released, Tim Tebow will not. The doctors have not cleared the Heisman winner to practice or play since suffering his concussion against the Kentucky Wildcats. Even if he does receive the clearance to play, he hasn’t been in practice for over two weeks. What does this mean?


Well, this means something bad for Florida. You have a first-time starter going into Baton Rouge, at night, to face the number four team in the country, and a defense that is very athletic and dangerous. I don’t care how overrated anyone thinks LSU may be, this cannot be a good feeling for Meyer and the Gator Nation, at all.


The Tigers, on the other hand, looked determined to win in Athens. When they were backed against the wall, they responded. Sometimes the victor is not always the best team on the field, but the one who wants it more. And there is always something about LSU that seems like Lady Luck is on their side.


The defense will be ready to make some plays, make some people hurt, and make their fans rejoice into the night. Even if Tebow returns, you can count on a very physical defense laying the wood to him. I predict Tebow will see some playing time, and some time on his back, not to mention the sideline.


I may be wrong. I have been before. But I can foresee the excuses now. But please, please, Mr. Tebow, no more post-game crying.


Prediction: LSU 21 Florida 20


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