Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 6, 2009

GAINESVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 12:  Levi Brown #12 of the Troy Trojans attempts a pass during the game against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 12, 2009 in Gainesville, Florida.  (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

TROY STATE (-7.0) 31 Middle Tenn 22

Over/Under Total: 55.5

05:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Oct-06

Troy has rebounded from their 0-2 start to win and cover their last two games and the Trojans are starting to look more like the team that was picked to defend their Sun Belt title.

The Trojans are just average offensively on a national scale (5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but Middle Tennessee is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively and I expect Troy to move the ball pretty well at home tonight.

The Blue Raiders should also move the ball at a decent clip, as their slightly worse than average attack (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) goes up against a Troy defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season (although just 0.1 yppl worse than average if you take out the Florida game in which they were over-matched).

There isn't too much difference between these teams from the line of scrimmage, but Middle Tennessee State has been having problems with special teams and Troy is at home.

My math model gives Troy State a 53% chance to cover at -6 1/2 points, so I'll lean with the Trojans.

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