Dr. Bob Previews TROY (-7) Vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Robert Stoll

Correspondent Written on October 06, 2009

GAINESVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 12: Levi Brown #12 of the Troy Trojans attempts a pass during the game against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 12, 2009 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

(Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

TROY STATE (-7.0) 31 Middle Tenn 22

Over/Under Total: 55.5

05:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Oct-06

Troy has rebounded from their 0-2 start to win and cover their last two games and the Trojans are starting to look more like the team that was picked to defend their Sun Belt title.

The Trojans are just average offensively on a national scale (5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but Middle Tennessee is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively and I expect Troy to move the ball pretty well at home tonight.

The Blue Raiders should also move the ball at a decent clip, as their slightly worse than average attack (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) goes up against a Troy defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season (although just 0.1 yppl worse than average if you take out the Florida game in which they were over-matched).

There isn't too much difference between these teams from the line of scrimmage, but Middle Tennessee State has been having problems with special teams and Troy is at home.

My math model gives Troy State a 53% chance to cover at -6 1/2 points, so I'll lean with the Trojans.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal

(0)

0 Comments

There are no comments yet. Get the conversation started by leaving the first comment

Loading more comments...

posted just now

Loading...
Nobody has liked this comment yet

Cancel

This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete

<form action="/accounts/create_from_facebook_comment" class="new_facebook_user" id="new_facebook_user" method="post">	<input id="facebook_user_facebook_id" name="facebook_user[facebook_id]" type="hidden" />
	<input id="facebook_user_proxied_email" name="facebook_user[proxied_email]" type="hidden" />
	<input id="facebook_user_profile_pic" name="facebook_user[profile_pic]" type="hidden" />
	<input id="facebook_user_profile_url" name="facebook_user[profile_url]" type="hidden" />
	<ul>
		<div id="facebook_questions">
			<li class="fb-question" id="facebook_full_name_container">
				<p class="question">
					<label for="facebook_user_use_full_name">Use your full name <strong class="full_name"></strong> on Bleacher Report?</label>
					<br />
				</p>
				<p class="options">
					<input name="facebook_user[use_full_name]" type="hidden" value="0" /><input checked="checked" id="facebook_user_use_full_name" name="facebook_user[use_full_name]" type="checkbox" value="1" />
					<label for="facebook_user_use_full_name">Yes</label>
				</p>
				<div class="input full-name-edit" style="display:none">
					<p>Edit your name for Bleacher Report:</p>
					<div class="fb-first-name">
						<label for="facebook_user_first_name">First Name <em>(required)</em></label>
						<input class="signup_text_input" id="facebook_user_first_name" name="facebook_user[first_name]" size="30" type="text" />
						
					</div>
	
					<div class="fb-last-name">
						<label for="facebook_user_last_name">Last Name <em>(required)</em></label>
						<input class="signup_text_input" id="facebook_user_last_name" name="facebook_user[last_name]" size="30" type="text" />
						
					</div>
				</div>
			</li>
			<li class="fb-question">
				<p class="question">
					<img src="/images/default-user-icon-medium.png" class="profile_pic" />
					<label for="facebook_user_use_profile_pic">Do you want to use your Facebook profile picture on Bleacher Report?</label>
				</p>
				<p class="options">
					<input name="facebook_user[use_profile_pic]" type="hidden" value="0" /><input checked="checked" id="facebook_user_use_profile_pic" name="facebook_user[use_profile_pic]" type="checkbox" value="1" />
					<label for="facebook_user_use_profile_pic">Yes</label>
					
				</p>
			</li>
			<li>
				<a id="facebook_connect_submit"><img src="/images/shared/submit.png" /></a>
			</li>
		</div>
	</ul>
</form>

372
reads

0
comments

0
likes

written on October 06, 2009 Preview/Prediction