5 Key Factors to Chicago Bulls' Surprisingly Hot Start
While the Chicago Cubs were winning their first World Series in 108 years, the Chicago Bulls' undefeated record went up in flames as they lost to the Boston Celtics.
Despite the loss, Chi-Town is looking better than anyone expected.
Based on Basketball-Reference.com's Simple Rating System, which is based on average margin of victory and strength of schedule, the Bulls (3-1) are currently the top-ranked team in the NBA.
According to NBA.com, they have the second-best offense (111.4 offensive rating), the best rebounding percentage (57.7 percent), the fourth-best assist percentage (65.8 percent), the seventh-best true shooting percentage (56.3 percent) and the fifth-best net rating (10.9).
However, we are just four games into the season, and the Bulls have had some convenient scheduling (with two of their opponents coming in on the second end of back-to-backs). Plus, some of their players are shooting uncharacteristically well from deep.
Most people projected Chicago as an at-best bottom-tier playoff squad. Are the Bulls simply enjoying a hot streak, or are there indicators that suggest they could be a contender? The truth is somewhere in the middle.
We'll look at five factors that have been key to the Bulls' hot start and how sustainable they are (on a scale of 1-10). They are not "ranked" but are put into a logical sequence, evaluating the sustainability of each one.
Coaching
1 of 5
The Bulls announced they were signing Rajon Rondo days before the Las Vegas Summer League started. Arguably the biggest criticism at the time was that Rondo had a history of conflicting with coaches. Adding to the potential friction, head coach Fred Hoiberg had lost the team in his first year. That included his star player, Jimmy Butler.
Christopher Reina of RealGM explained at the time what everyone was thinking:
"Rondo will inevitably clash with Fred Hoiberg and this is a signing that would make more sense if Tom Thibodeau was still head coach. Thibodeau could at least get Rondo to recommit on defense and would command his respect. The Bulls can cut ties with Rondo after one season so the risk is minimal, but I would have preferred them to instead re-sign E'Twaun Moore and let Butler have all of the ball or really see out Hoiberg's motion offense.
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Weirdly, this has turned into a positive working relationship. Rondo came to visit the Bulls during summer league. During one of the broadcasts, the announcers conveyed that the two were watching film together. It turned out Hoiberg was a big fan of Rondo's high basketball IQ.
Hoiberg wasn't just telling Rondo what plays to call; he was entrusting him with the stewardship of his offense. Rondo responded.
K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune wrote about Rondo's impact:
"In many ways, this is what Hoiberg meant when he revealed that Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told Hoiberg he had the right personality to mesh with Rondo. Hoiberg wants a point guard who pushes the ball, gets the offense organized, calls plays and makes instinctive reads.
In short, Hoiberg wants his point guard to be a coach on the floor. That has always been Rondo's reputation.
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That has a trickle-down effect. Even Butler is coming around. According to Vincent Goodwill of CSN Chicago, the two-time All-Star said of Hoiberg, "Maybe I judged someone too quickly."
That has opened up a way for Hoiberg to run his system, which has a lot to do with why the team has been so successful.
Sustainability: 7
What happens if the Bulls hit a patch of adversity? If they can roll through that without discontent from Rondo, they'll be a solid playoff team in the East.
If Rondo becomes displeased, though, and the anticipated head-butting with Hoiberg happens, it could throw a wrench in the works since so much of the offense runs through the point guard.
Chemistry
2 of 5
On a team with nine new players, one byproduct of being more open to coaching is it makes them more open to one another.
Goodwill observed after the Bulls' blowout over the Brooklyn Nets:
"The Bulls are almost flawless at hitting the open man from double-teams or off dribble penetration, playing with a chemistry that’s almost too good to be true this soon in a season with so many new players
"I'm not surprised. I think whenever you buy into it and you hang out as much as we do and we know each other the way we do, I think it helps," Butler said. "Me and D-Wade were talking about it earlier, how this locker room camaraderie, it really shows on the floor."
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According to Johnson, Butler elaborated on the team chemistry:
"I think everyone is enjoying everybody's company, man. Even when we're not playing basketball, even if we're throwing a football, if we're playing cards, if we're just sitting and talking, everybody is locked in, everybody is having fun, everybody is listening, and everybody wants to get to know each other a little bit better. That's a major difference. We actually spend a lot of time off the floor with each other, which I didn't know could help so much, but it really does.
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Establishing personal relationships doesn't always translate to better basketball, but when you have a roster comprised of legitimate talent, it's a step in the right direction when players see eye to eye both on and off the court.
Sustainability: 8
Rondo is only one of the Three Alphas. The most important of them is Butler, and the most senior is Dwyane Wade. If those two continue connecting, there shouldn't be any issues.
The potential for Rondo fallout still exists, but even if it rears up, the other two should keep the house in order.
Rebounding
3 of 5
Much of the preseason hype was about things the Bulls starters don't do well, ignoring the things beyond dominating the ball they can do.
Rondo (4.9 rebounds per game for his career), Butler (5.5 as a starter) and Wade (4.8) are all exceptional rebounders for their respective positions throughout their careers.
The trio is combining for 16.4 boards this season, but it's not just the perimeter players. Taj Gibson is leading the team in rebounding with 9.3 boards in just 25.8 minutes per game. Nikola Mirotic is snatching 7.0 through only 28.8 minutes. Robin Lopez is grabbing 6.0 in a meager 20.0 minutes.
It should not be a surprise, then, that the Bovines share the lead in rebounding percentage at 57.7. They are doing it on both sides of the court with an eighth-ranked defensive rebounding percentage (80.2 percent) and the league's best offensive rebounding percentage (33.7 percent).
The Bulls are turning that edge on the glass into a 7.7 differential in second-chance points, which is third-best in the league behind the Denver Nuggets (10.0) and Atlanta Hawks (8.5).
The Bulls are getting 58.5 percent of all rebound chances (where they have a player within 3.5 feet of the ball), which is also third-best. And they're tops in contested rebounds per game at 20.8, which means they're not cheap rebounds.
Sustainability: 10
Of all the things going well for Chicago, this is easily the most sustainable. Rebounding isn't a skill that gets hot and cold. The only way this drops is if the whole chemistry experiment goes Wile E. Coyote-plot-gone-wrong and blows up. Then the effort will lag.
Passing
4 of 5Three virtues of the Three Alphas are keying a lot of their success:
- They all can pass.
- They are all willing to pass.
- All three have high basketball IQs, so they tend to make the right pass.
In an offense like Hoiberg's, where ball movement is such an important factor, those three elements are critical. When you have three guys who can both understand and execute the offense, it pays dividends.
The Bulls are moving the ball like a hot potato (see above clip) with a fourth-best 329.5 passes made per game. They are second in assists, third in secondary assists (aka hockey assists), second in potential assists (shots that came off passes) and fifth in assist points created.
They are also tops in catch-and-shoot effective field-goal percentage at 62.1.
But if you want one stat that demonstrates how the Bulls are committed to ball movement, Taj Gibson is second among power forwards (and tied for 15th overall) in secondary assists with 1.3.
Sustainability: 7
Like rebounding, passing is innate to the Three Alphas' arsenal, and it should continue as long as there is team harmony. If things do start to stumble, this is the first aspect that will go as each of the three try to become the Primary Alpha.
But it also could actually get better. This is a team with nine new players who are still learning how to play with one another.
Shooting
5 of 5
With Wade (41.7 percent) and Butler (50 percent) both shooting well over their career averages from the three-point line, it's easy to conclude that Chicago's unexpected sharpshooting is an anomaly that will soon repair itself by means of regression.
However, it's also false syllogism and overly reductive to say is the whole reason why the team is 10th in made threes and third in three-point percentage.
If you were to apply Wade's and Butler's respective 28.6 and 33.1 career percentages from deep, it would subtract about one long ball per game. That 8.5 rate would still be above the league average and still half-a-make more than what the team averaged last season (7.9).
So what about the rest of the reason? It comes down to the ball movement and chemistry we've been discussing. By viewing the time players have the ball before they shoot, we see an interesting trend. Here's how the distribution breaks down this year:
Touch Time | Percent of Offense | Effective Field-Goal Percentage |
Less than two seconds | 61.30% | 57.40% |
Between two and six seconds | 28.60% | 48.00% |
More than six seconds | 10.20% | 42.60% |
Notice that the longer they hold the ball, the lower the effective field-goal percentage is. Also, notice that 61.3 percent of their shots come within two seconds of touch time. Now let's compare those numbers with last season:
Touch Time | Percent of Offense | Effective Field-Goal Percentage |
Less than two seconds | 55.70% | 54.60% |
Between two and six seconds | 32.20% | 40.40% |
More than six seconds | 12.10% | 42.50% |
As a team, they are getting off more of their shots within the first two seconds, and they're doing so more efficiently. That is indicative of the passing.
Even in the two-to-six-second range, you can see this trend. The difference of nearly eight percentage points suggests this year's shots are trending in the shorter end of that range, whereas last season was closer to the tail end.
In other words, the larger reason for such the uptick in scoring efficiency is ball movement. Guys like Isaiah Canaan (46.7 percent), Doug McDermott (50 percent) and Nikola Mirotic (34.6 percent) are also hitting threes, and they have a track record of doing so.
So how does this track with the Three Alphas? I broke the Bulls into two categories: the Three Alphas and everyone else (minus Paul Zipser because he has only one shot). Here is how the groups broke down with under two seconds of touch time compared to overall shots:
Player Group | Field Goals | Field-Goal Attempts | Effective Field-Goal Percentage | Total Shots | Percent of Offense |
Three Alphas | 5.7 | 13.4 | 52.1 | 31.6 | 42.4% |
Everyone Else | 21.7 | 42.4 | 58.4 | 58.7 | 72.2% |
In all, about 76 percent of the shots within two seconds are from someone other than the Bulls' primary ball-handlers. The trio accounts for 57 percent of the team's assists. It's safe to conclude one of the stars is assisting on the majority of those makes within two seconds.
Sustainability: 6
There will be some regression from Butler and Wade. However, the other shooters will be fine as long as the passing is there.
The Bulls have the fourth-highest frequency in the putbacks category but are near the bottom of the league in completion percentage at 50.0 percent. That could be dragging their efficiency down, with some regression due in an upward direction.
All stats obtained from Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com and accurate entering games on Nov. 3.
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