San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos are 5-1 straight up in their last six rivalry meetings with San Diego, but the Chargers are 4-3 against the spread over the last seven encounters in the series, including an upset victory just two weeks ago. San Diego takes its high-wire act to Mile High Stadium to challenge the defending champions Sunday afternoon. 

Point spread: The Broncos opened as six-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.8-17.3 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

After losing three straight games by a total of eight points, the Chargers have won two straight, including a come-from-behind 33-30 decision in overtime at Atlanta last week. San Diego fell down by 17 points late in the second quarter but scored 10 points in the last six minutes to force overtime and won it with a defensive stuff on a Falcons fourth-down attempt and a Josh Lambo field goal.

On the afternoon, the Chargers outgained the Falcons 426-386 and won time of possession by five minutes.

Two weeks ago, San Diego grabbed an early lead against Denver and never trailed, beating the Broncos 21-13.

The Chargers are 3-4 on the season but could be/should be 5-1 or even 6-0 considering they blew leads in every game they lost, including a couple in excruciating fashion.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos just snapped a two-game losing skid with a convincing 27-9 win over the Houston Texans on Monday night, covering the eight-point spread. Denver trailed the Texans 6-0 after one quarter and then scored twice in a five-minute span to take the lead for good. The defense did the rest.

On the night, the Broncos outgained Houston 347-271, racking up 190 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, that Denver defense made former Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler look bad, allowing just 131 yards on 41 Texans pass attempts.

Denver ranks only 26th in the league in total offense but has outgained five of its last six opponents and sits with a 50.6 percent chance of winning the division, according to PredictionMachine.com.

Smart pick

San Diego is finding financial success on the road and in the altitude at Mile High, going 9-1 ATS over its last 10 road games and 8-1-4 ATS over its last 13 visits to Denver. Also, the Broncos are coming off a big effort Monday night and now play on the short week. The Chargers are the smart choice in this spot.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in six of the Chargers' last eight games against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 22-4 SU in their last 26 games against their division.

The Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.