Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers will be trying to avoid consecutive straight-up losses to the Chicago Bears when the NFC North rivals clash on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.

The Packers are coming off their worst home defeat in three years, a 30-16 loss to the Dallas Cowboys as 5.5-point favorites, and they have failed to cover in four of five contests this season. The Bears are winless SU and against the spread on the road this season and have tallied more than 17 points just once in six contests.

Point spread: The Packers opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.7-15.4 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Brian Hoyer has been steady since taking over the starting quarterback role in Chicago, throwing for over 300 yards in four starts and tallying six total touchdowns against no picks. Hoyer has played some of his best ball on the road, throwing for 13 scores over his past six away games, and he now faces a Packers pass defense that has allowed 10 touchdown passes this season.

The Bears must also capitalize on a Green Bay backfield that has been decimated by injury. That includes running back Eddie Lacy, who could miss several weeks with an ankle injury, and backup James Starks, who recently underwent knee surgery.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Aaron Rodgers has dominated the Bears throughout his career, throwing 35 total touchdown passes while powering the Packers to 12 wins in 16 meetings.

The Packers have been tough to beat when Rodgers finds the end zone and avoids interceptions, going 24-2 SU in their past 26 games when Rodgers throws for multiple scores. As well, the Packers are unbeaten in their past four games when Rodgers avoids picks.

Green Bay's pass defense is also among the league leaders in sacks, getting to opposing passers 10 total times over their three wins, and it now faces a Bears offensive line that has allowed 12 sacks this season.

Smart pick

The Bears have won three straight games at Lambeau—all as betting underdogs—but they are 1-4 SU and ATS in their past five games overall on the road.

The Packers are 13-4 SU against Chicago since they last dropped two straight to the Bears back in 2007. But Green Bay has been a shaky bet as big chalk, failing to cover in three of their past four games while favored by nine or more on the NFL point spreads.

Look for Green Bay to rebound with a SU victory and improve on their odds to make the playoffs but once again struggle to cover a big spread.

Betting trends

The Bears are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games against the Packers.

The total has gone under in 12 of the Bears' last 17 games against the Packers.

The Packers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 7.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.