New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (5-1) will be looking to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) for the 10th time in 13 meetings this Sunday when they visit Heinz Field as increasing road favorites.

In a game that was supposed to feature two of the AFC's best teams and quarterbacks, Pittsburgh will be without Ben Roethlisberger following surgery to repair a torn meniscus, while New England's Tom Brady attempts to improve to 3-0 since returning from his four-game suspension to start the season.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as two-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.2-18.2 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

As expected, the Patriots have played with chips on their shoulders for most of the year, especially in the last two games with Brady back under center. The two-time NFL MVP and four-time Super Bowl champion has played outstanding football in his first two games, totaling 782 passing yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions.

This will be Brady's second road game after throwing for 406 yards against the Cleveland Browns in a 33-13 rout two weeks ago, helping the Patriots cover the spread as 10-point favorites. New England is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 games in the month of October.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers may struggle a bit offensively at first without Roethlisberger, but they still have an arsenal of weapons and will be playing at home as big underdogs. They are 7-1 SU in their last eight games after losing as favorites the previous week and have beaten all three opponents at home so far by over a touchdown, going 3-0 against the spread and winning by an average of 18.3 points.

Additionally, Pittsburgh would be wise to use star running back Le'Veon Bell to pound the ball and take some pressure off new starting quarterback Landry Jones.

Smart pick

The Patriots have been nearly unstoppable this season outside of a home loss to the Buffalo Bills with their third-string quarterback, but this seems like too many points to be giving the Steelers at home. Even with Jones getting the nod as Roethlisberger's replacement, it will be up to the defense to find a way to slow down Brady.

Pittsburgh has allowed 14.3 points per game in three home games this year, so look for the defense to step up again, pressuring Brady throughout en route to a cover and possible upset.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against the Steelers.

The total has gone over in eight of the Patriots' last 11 games against the Steelers.

The total has gone under in eight of the Steelers' last 10 games.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.