NLDS Playoff Picks: For The Want Of The Ninth Inning...

(Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)

In the greater Philadelphia area, there is excitement for the Phillies with their attempt to defend their World Series championship. The team is better than last year's squad in nearly every definable measure.

The outfield consists of three borderline All-Star selections. The infield has three recent MVP selections. Third base and catcher are manned by guys who hit well in the stretch run, provide top-drawer defense, and performed admirably in last year's playoffs.

The rotation has strong left-handed pitching options, including last year's Series MVP, the 2008 American League Cy Young winner, and a possible Rookie of the Year winner. Even the back end of the rotation has good options, with a wily veteran Cy Young winner and a control pitcher with 2008 heroics.

The organization has not rested on its championship; instead, it has moved forcefully (witness the Cliff Lee trade) to go for back-to-back crowns. No one has talked about how they've coasted, or that they're fat and happy.

And yet, just about every observer is writing them off, and it's hard for me not to as well.

The reason, of course, is the bullpen. It's hard to say just how bad Brad Lidge was this year, other than this: while he might have had the best year ever for a closer in 2008, he might have had the worst year ever for a closer in 2009. The only reason he didn't set a record for blown saves was that the club coddled him to avoid it late in the year.

They invented injuries for him to rehab and come back stronger; it didn't help. They tried others in the role, only when all human patience had been exhausted; those options also didn't work. (Though, for my money, showing considerably less patience with Ryan Madson than was warranted.)

Baseball fans have been here before. Red Sox Fan had his falling out with Keith Foulke after he more or less sold his soul and arm to get them the 2004 crown. Once 2005 rolled around, he was spent, never to recover, and they tossed him aside with speed for Jonathan Papelbon.

It is the nature of closers, and why fantasy players never pay for saves; for every long-term solution like Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman, there are a million guys who blow up after big years. Your best hope, as a fan of a version of laundry, is that your team either chooses wisely and/or gets lucky, or has the ability to stock the farm system with people who can do the gig. (When the Phillies ran into ninth inning issues this year, they brought up... Tyler Walker. Rut roh.)

In the last decade, teams have won, despite anecdotal evidence to the contrary, without shutdown closers. Consider Bobby Jenks seizing the job away from Dustin Hermanson and Shingo Takatsu for the 2005 White Sox. Jason Isringhausen's ordinary 3.55 ERA for the 2006 Cardinals, and BK Kim's ill-timed meltdown for the 2001 DiamondBacks (and given Lidge's performance, especially consider BK).

But none of those guys were flat-out terrible. Even Kim was solid until he made his fateful entrance into Yankee Stadium. Lidge has been terrible and will be terrible in the next few weeks. No amount of faith, hope or prayer will change that. The man's slider hasn't been sharp. The fastball has always been hittable, and there are no other tricks in the arsenal.

A creative and, to be fair, loyalty-free manager would have recognized this months ago. A front office that catches every trick should have provided options at the trading deadline. The A's would have sent over some no-name guy that would have just gotten outs for prospects that don't work out, just like last year's move for Blanton. Even if they didn't, there was always George Sherrill from the Orioles, who the Dodgers scooped up for a pittance, or perhaps backing up the truck for Heath Bell from the Padres.

The fan base recognized the problem months ago, and while still displaying an inordinate amount of good will towards Lidge, has agonized over it. It's also telling that the extra half-dozen or more games that Lidge forced the team to win again meant that September was spent in a stress position, which probably didn't help the rotation's efforts to close the year on a high point.

In the last two weeks, none of them have pitched well, and while it's a bit of a reach to say that an extra week of Triple A call-up action would have fixed them, it's better than the alternative.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?