Biggest Takeaways from MLB's 2016 ALDS, NLDS Action
We learned a few things in the 2016 American League and National League Division Series.
We learned it will be the Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays in the AL Championship Series and the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs in the NL Championship Series. All four teams won three games to advance, which I suppose is another lesson in case anyone's new to this whole postseason baseball thing.
As for the other key takeaways from the division series round, well, that's what we're here to get into. Let's look at one takeaway for each of the surviving teams and three bigger-picture takeaways for the division series round as a whole.
After all those "takeaways," it is with no shame that I now say this: Take it away!
Cleveland's Secret Weapons: Platoon Advantage and Baserunning
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The easiest thing to notice in the Indians' sweep of the Boston Red Sox was their run prevention. Their great pitching and defense limited the high-powered Red Sox offense to just seven runs.
However, not to be disregarded with a wave and a "meh" is the work done by Cleveland's offense. It wasn't unstoppable in scoring 15 runs in three games, but goodness gracious was it relentless. Cleveland hitters hit .271 in the three games, the best mark of any team in the division series round.
A major factor was how often the Indians had the platoon advantage. As Jeff Sullivan covered at FanGraphs, Cleveland's top-five offense enjoyed the platoon advantage in an MLB-high 70 percent of its plate appearances in the regular season. The rate held steady at 70 percent against Boston and, per Baseball Savant, resulted in a .303 batting average with the platoon advantage.
Cleveland hitters upped the ante on the bases as well. They only stole one base in the series but were taking the extra base seemingly every chance they got. Roberto Perez's baserunning was a deciding factor in Game 1. He went from first to home on a flyout and a single, bringing home the fifth run in a 5-4 win.
This was also a continuation of a regular-season trend. Per FanGraphs, the Indians ranked first in the AL in baserunning runs. An AL-high 134 stolen bases helped, but the division series provided a glimpse into how much more they can do with their legs.
"We don't have to steal bases to be a good baserunning team," Indians manager Terry Francona said, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. "I think that's one of our strengths, and I think it will continue."
The Blue Jays Have Found Their Offense
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Like the Indians, the Blue Jays also pitched well in knocking off the Texas Rangers in three games. Toronto has allowed only 12 runs in 39 total innings this postseason, which includes its win over the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card Game.
But let's not kid ourselves. The Rangers were overwhelmed mainly because the Blue Jays offense looked like, well, the Blue Jays offense.
The numbers make one's eyebrows reach for the sky. Toronto hitters feasted with a .266 average and a division series-high .895 OPS and eight home runs. Five players—Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Edwin Encarnacion, Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr.—exited the series with an OPS over 1.000. Five!
This outburst was typical of an offense that's been among the most dangerous in the league since the start of 2014. But it was also a return to form. Blue Jays hitters had managed just a .693 OPS in the final month of the regular season, their worst monthly mark in the past two years.
Snapping out of this didn't involve changing much. Blue Jays hitters really worked Texas pitchers, getting back to something they did better than anyone in the regular season. And when they swung, they were often aiming for the fences.
"Really, it was a tough September; we battled," Toronto skipper John Gibbons said, per Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com. "We really picked it up at the end just to get in. And since the month has turned over to October, it kind of looks like the old team."
Indeed it does. And with the ALCS set to kick off Friday evening, we'll soon find out if Toronto's power is good enough to beat Cleveland's everything.
If Nothing Else, the Cubs Are Resilient
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The San Francisco Giants may have lost in four games, but they gave the Cubs something in the NLDS that few teams could in the regular season: a challenge.
They handled the Cubs' well-rounded offense, limiting it to a .200 average and 17 runs. Johnny Cueto did his part with a masterful performance in Game 1. Matt Moore followed suit in Game 4. In between, the Cubs dealt with an early exit by Kyle Hendricks in Game 2 and a 13-inning endurance contest in Game 3 that was fueled in part by an Aroldis Chapman meltdown.
And yet the Cubs are in the NLCS anyway.
They owe it to Jon Lester matching Cueto pitch for pitch. They owe it to their bullpen picking up Hendricks. They owe it to their hitters finally awakening in a four-run rally in the ninth inning of Game 4. Had things gone differently in Game 3, they'd owe Jake Arrieta and Kris Bryant for huge home runs.
In short, the Cubs didn't let the Giants' even-year magic force them into their usual scripted move of rolling over and dying. Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight captured just how out of character that is:
"Chicago’s series win probability dwindled to just 55 percent [in Game 4]…that was down from a peak of 96 percent early in Game 3. Nine other times in franchise history, the Cubs had a series win probability of 55 percent or greater and saw it drop from its peak by at least 40 percentage points — and all nine times, they ended up losing the series.
"
The Cubs' 103 wins and plus-252 run differential from the regular season confirm how talented they are. What their performance in the NLDS confirmed is that they have the will to make the most of this talent.
"We don't quit," Cubs manager Joe Maddon said, per Phil Rogers of MLB.com. "That's really what it comes down to. You hear that all the time, everybody says it, but you have to actually live it."
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The Dodgers Have Justin Turner, Must Now Figure out the Rest
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The Dodgers dispatched the Washington Nationals in the NLDS in no small part because of Justin Turner.
The veteran third baseman hit .400 with a 1.324 OPS in the series' five games, by far the highest of any Dodgers hitter. What's more, he had two clutch hits that were the difference in two wins: a two-run homer in a 4-3 win in Game 1 and a two-run triple in a 4-3 win in Game 5.
This is Turner's way of reminding the world that as much as they hear about Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager and other top Dodgers stars, he's also really good. He was a well-above-average hitter for a third straight year in 2016 with an .832 OPS and 27 homers. He's building a good postseason track record to boot.
Outside of Turner, though, explaining how the Dodgers beat the Nationals gives this writer a headache.
They didn't do it with great starting pitching. After a so-so outing in Game 1, Kershaw was his usual dominant self only through the first six innings in Game 4 on three days' rest. For their part, Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda allowed nine runs in 10 combined innings. In all, the three managed a 7.06 ERA as starters.
The Dodgers bullpen was hit-or-miss. It did great work in Game 1 but allowed a close contest in Game 3 to get away. It nearly ruined a win in Game 4. It threatened to do the same in Game 5, only to be temporarily rescued by Kenley Jansen. At least, that is, until he had to be rescued by Kershaw.
The good news is the Dodgers came into the series with a nice balance of stars and depth on both sides of the ball. The further good news is that it's all still there.
But if any of the four victors came out looking more vulnerable than they did going in, it's the Dodgers.
Hard Times for Starting Pitchers
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Congrats are in order to Cueto, Lester, Moore, Corey Kluber and Marco Estrada. They are exempt from a discussion that we must be blunt about.
Man, did starting pitchers suck in the division series round.
The devil's not even in the details. It's right there in the 5.38 ERA posted by starting pitchers. As Gabe Lacques covered at USA Today, that's way up from the past four division series rounds.
This isn't just thanks to the Clay Buchholzes and the Trevor Bauers of the world. If you don't mind some targeted cherry-picking, it had more to do with flops from known aces: Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Rick Porcello, Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, Aaron Sanchez and John Lackey.
Observe a comparison between their regular-season and postseason performances:
- Regular Season: 3.09 ERA
- Postseason: 8.64 ERA
While there are exceptions to the rule—Bumgarner in 2014 being the big one—this is a reminder that having top-tier starting pitching generally isn't that big of a boost in the postseason. When Peter Keating crunched the numbers at ESPN.com, he found that "an ace improves his club's chances of winning postseason games, on average, by a measly 1.7 percentage points."
As for why it's been especially hard out here for an ace this postseason, there's a long list of individual explanations and diagnostics that would take too long to get into. But there is one overarching trend that I've conveniently placed on the next slide...
Hitters Are Attacking and Producing Early in Games
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Why are starting pitchers struggling so badly this postseason? Maybe because hitters are extra determined to make it so.
It's hard to track down splits against starters and relievers, but Baseball Savant can lend a hand with the innings where hitters did their damage in the division series*. Between the first and fifth, they hit .273 with a .468 slugging percentage. After the sixth, they hit just .185 with a .278 slugging percentage.
Cutting to the chase: Hitters were better in innings occupied by starting pitchers. Even more so than in the regular season, when they hit .260 with a .427 slugging percentage in the first five innings.
You could posit this is because the postseason narrows things down to teams with better hitting. But it also narrows things down to teams with better starting pitching. So, call it a push.
Where there is a difference is in how hitters approached the first five innings. According to information from Baseball Savant, they swung at 45.8 percent of the pitches they saw in those frames in the regular season. In the division series, the rate was bumped up to 46.2 percent. First pitches were especially prone to punishment, getting hit at a .380 average and .595 slugging percentage.
This fits with a pattern of aggressiveness that Drew Fairservice talked about at Fox Sports back in 2014. And frankly, hitters being aggressive early in postseason games makes logical sense on two levels.
For one, it's when they're more likely to see strikes. In the division series, pitchers found the strike zone 39.1 percent of the time in the first five innings and 37.4 percent after. "That's because starters have better control than relievers," says Captain Obvious.
Oh, and about those relievers...
*These figures are current for every game except Game 5 of the NLDS between the Dodgers and Nationals.
The Next Step of the Bullpen Revolution
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The bearded and robed baseball wisemen used to say the best way to score runs was to get the starting pitcher out early and go to town on the soft underbelly of a team's bullpen.
The Kansas City Royals pushed back against that in 2014 and 2015, using a deep and overpowering collection of relievers to win two AL pennants and a World Series. Many teams have sought to follow their fine example, and we just watched the bullpen revolution take the next step.
Relievers didn't get off scot-free in the division series round. There were some meltdowns and blowups. But overall, they dominated with a 2.37 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 125.1 innings.
That workload is impressive considering there were only 272.2 total innings pitched. Relievers covered 46 percent of those, a sizable increase from the 40-ish percent range of the last two postseasons. Some of this had to do with the bad starting pitching. The dominance, though, had much to do with how aggressively managers used their best relievers.
Cleveland's use of Andrew Miller is such an obvious example that it's a topic worthy of its own article. Two AL closers, Cody Allen and Roberto Osuna, were used for more than three outs twice in the ALDS. In the NL circuit, the Dodgers brought Jansen into the eighth inning of Game 1 and into the seventh of Game 5.
All this happened on the heels of Buck Showalter's visible failure to use Cy Young contender Zach Britton in the Baltimore Orioles' debacle in the AL Wild Card Game. That was a case of a manager sticking to the notion that elite relievers are only to be used in specific situations. We've since seen managers defy that by going to their elite relievers when they're needed, period.
In fairness, this trend may become less extreme in the days to come. But there's no denying the game has changed.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs and MLB.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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