Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Boston Red Sox
For the first time in more than a decade, the Boston Red Sox head into the offseason knowing that David Ortiz and his larger-than-life personality won't be a fixture in the middle of their lineup when the team reports for spring training next year.
"No one wanted it to end like this," said Xander Bogaerts, Boston's 24-year-old shortstop, following the Cleveland Indians' series-clinching Game 3 victory over the Red Sox in the American League Division Series, per the Providence Journal's Tim Britton.
Whether the "it" Bogaerts was referring to was Boston's season or Ortiz's career is irrelevant—he's right.
The team wasted little time in making one of its biggest offseason decisions, deciding to maintain the status quo in the dugout for 2017.
"John Farrell will be our manager for 2017," president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters Tuesday, per the Boston Herald's Jason Mastrodonato. "So he is all set and his full staff will be invited back. ... Everybody is welcome back. I think they did a very fine job for us."
Exactly how the roster he'll be managing will look come Opening Day, however, isn't quite as clear.
Payroll Breakdown
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Practically every player Boston has under contract for next season is a major piece of the puzzle, but none are more puzzling than Pablo Sandoval. For nobody knows what—if anything—he'll be able to contribute after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery back in May.
| David Price | SP | $30,000,000 | $30,000,000 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1B | $22,750,000 | $22,750,000 |
| Rick Porcello | SP | $20,125,000 | $20,125,000 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 3B | $17,600,000 | $17,600,000 |
| Dustin Pedroia | SP | $11,125,000 | $15,125,000 |
| Craig Kimbrel | CL | $11,000,000* | $13,000,000* |
| Chris Young | OF | $6,500,000 | $6,500,000 |
| Rusney Castillo | OF | $11,271,000 | $11,271,000 |
| Allen Craig | IF/OF | $9,000,000 | $11,000,000 |
| Total | $139,371,000 | $147,371,000 |
Will his shoulder be strong enough to make throws across the diamond from third base? Will the surgically repaired joint negatively impact his swing? Will he show up to spring training out of shape and overweight, as he did in 2016?
"It will be interesting to see how it shakes out," Farrell told Britton of Sandoval earlier this week. "But he's been a proven big league performer. If he's healthy and ready to go, he has a chance to be a good performer for us."
Travis Shaw, who was disappointing as Sandoval's replacement, leads a deep group of young players with renewable contracts for 2017.
| Matt Barnes | RP |
| Mookie Betts | OF |
| Noe Ramirez | RP |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | SP |
| Travis Shaw | 1B/3B |
| Carson Smith | RP |
| Blake Swihart | C/OF |
| Christian Vazquez | C |
| Steven Wright | SP |
With the collective bargaining agreement set to be reworked, we can't be sure of the figures these deals will renew at. Assuming things don't change drastically, we'll estimate each player to receive something around a $600,000 salary in 2017, adding an additional $5 to $6 million to Boston's payroll.
*The San Diego Padres are picking up $250,000 of Kimbrel's salary.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
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The good news in Boston is that none of its arbitration-eligible players are in line for a huge payday. The bad news? That won't be true at the end of the 2017 season, when Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. will be entering their second arbitration-eligible winter.
In the table below, projected salaries are loosely based on what the players listed for comparison received, either as a one-year deal or through the arbitration process, at similar points in their careers. You can find the exact figures for those players by clicking on the links included.
| Fernando Abad | RP | $1,250,000 | $2,100,000 | James Russell |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | $650,000 | $2,750,000 | No comparison |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | OF | $546,500 | $1,750,000 | Gregory Polanco |
| Bryan Holaday | C | N/A | Non-tender candidate | N/A |
| Brock Holt | UTIL | $606,000 | $1,750,000 | Sean Rodriguez |
| Joe Kelly | RP | $2,600,000 | $2,950,000 | No comparison |
| Sandy Leon | C | N/A | $1,200,000 | Michael McKenry |
| Drew Pomeranz | SP | $1,350,000 | $2,500,000 | Hector Santiago |
| Robbie Ross Jr. | RP | $1,250,000 | $2,100,000 | Antonio Bastardo |
| Josh Rutledge | IF | N/A | Non-tender candidate | N/A |
| Brandon Workman | SP/RP | $539,500 | $750,000 | No comparison |
| Totals | $8,792,600 | $17,850,000 |
If my projections are anywhere near accurate, it's going to cost Boston nearly twice as much for these players as it did this season.
That said, Bogaerts and Bradley Jr. are a bargain at less than $5 million combined, considering their All-Star level of play at premium positions. Assuming Drew Pomeranz is healthy—he wasn't when the Red Sox traded for him—he'd also be a sizable bargain at only $2.5 million.
Players with Options and Boston's Free Agents
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In a perfect world, picking up the $10 million option on Ortiz's contract would be enough to convince Big Papi to stick around Boston as an active player for one more year. But that's not going to happen.
| Clay Buchholz | SP/RP | $13,000,000 | $13M team option, $245K buyout |
| Ryan Hanigan | C | $3,700,000 | $3.75M team option, $800K buyout |
| Aaron Hill | IF | $12,000,000 | |
| David Ortiz | 1B/DH | $16,000,000 | $10M team option, Ortiz retiring |
| Junichi Tazawa | RP | $3,375,000 | |
| Koji Uehara | RP | $9,000,000 | |
| Brad Ziegler | RP | $5,500,000 |
What will happen, however, is the Red Sox picking up their $13 million option on Clay Buchholz. While the 32-year-old pitched his way out of—and then back into—the rotation, he delivered a strong second-half performance and would assuredly be poached by another team in a weak free-agent market for starters.
Even if he starts the season as the team's swingman, Buchholz offers additional depth and insurance against injury to another member of the team's rotation. With no viable options waiting in the wings down on the farm, keeping him around is an easy decision for the team to make.
The same can't be said about veteran reliever Koji Uehara, though Dombrowski alluded to Britton that the 41-year-old would be welcomed back, adding that "Koji's done an unbelievable job for this organization."
Potential Free-Agent and Trade Targets
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Players like Ortiz are irreplaceable, as their impact on a team goes far beyond statistics and what we see on the field. Still, someone has to serve as Boston's designated hitter in 2017, and there are a pair of powerful free-agent bats who could potentially fill the void.
The Red Sox could also look to bolster the rotation this winter, whether it be by re-signing one of their former starters or swinging a deal for an already established front-of-the-rotation arm who could become available once the Hot Stove League opens for business.
- Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH: Ortiz endorsed Encarnacion as his replacement back in July, per the Boston Herald's Evan Drellich, and the 33-year-old has the power to fill the void left by Big Papi's departure. There's also the added benefit of taking him out of division-rival Toronto's lineup.
- Rich Hill, SP: Boston let the veteran starter walk as a free agent after the 2015 season. While injuries are a major concern, Hill is the best free-agent starter available and would add depth to the team's rotation—at least until he winds up on the disabled list at some point.
- Jose Quintana/Chris Sale, SPs, Chicago White Sox: Boston has the prospects to swing a deal for Sale or Quintana but might not be willing to continue depleting its farm system to do so. Yoan Moncada would likely have to be included in any package to get Chicago interested.
- Mark Trumbo, 1B/DH: Baseball's reigning home run champ could prove to be too expensive for division-rival Baltimore to retain, opening the door for the Red Sox to add him as a replacement for Ortiz. That said, he's not as prolific (or consistent) a run producer as Encarnacion.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and all payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus). All player comparisons link to Baseball Prospectus.
Want to talk Boston's offseason plans or anything baseball-related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
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