AJ Styles vs. Dean Ambrose vs. John Cena: WWE No Mercy 2016 Pick and Predictions

This Sunday at WWE No Mercy 2016, there will be a Triple Threat match between John Cena, Dean Ambrose and AJ Styles for the WWE world title.

On paper, this is an exciting and unpredictable match. It’s a perfect era vs. era vs. era struggle that encapsulates WWE's identity crisis. In reality, however, the result seems all but assured. AJ Styles will be retaining the WWE World Championship because that is the only result that makes any sort of narrative or business sense.

In one corner, we have John Cena, the former "face that runs the place," who is settling into the role of part-time Superstar. Cena's goal, in storyline, is to tie Ric Flair's record of 16 world titles. But breaking this record is a lot less important than preparing for the future of the company.

Cena's place in history is assured; even without tying Flair's record or surpassing it, he's still going to be remembered as one of the most popular, dominant wrestlers of all time. Does he need another title? No, of course not. A title is a storytelling device meant to affirm a wrestler's place in the hierarchy, and Cena's place has been assured for years. 

Let's play this out—if he wins, what will happen? Well, his biggest fans already love him, with or without the title. The remainder of the fanbase is bored and sick of him. There is no middle ground when it comes to Cena, and therein lies the problem. WWE fans in 2016 are too smart for the business; a Cena win is no longer just a win. It's a statement of priority by the company, and it's a slap in the face to fans who have been sold for months on the idea of a New Era.

SmackDown is a superior show to Raw at this point, and that's because SmackDown has done a better job of embracing the future. More in-ring action. Less expository promos. More new talent featured front and center. More matches with forward momentum. Putting the title on Cena would be antithetical to that direction. Plus, it bears repeating: A Cena win would tie Flair's record, not break it. It would be silly to throw away three months of post-draft plot and character development for a tie.

Could there be a scenario down the line where Cena wins the title again? Absolutely. But not this time because the win hasn't been built up with the T-shirt and highlight-reel nostalgia-fest that would typically accompany such an achievement.

WWE wants Cena's next world title win to be a feel-good moment, and in the current business climate, it wouldn't be. Expect Cena to lose on Sunday. But don't expect him to take the pin; this is WWE we're talking about, after all. Dean Ambrose will be taking the pin instead.

Ambrose's recent run as WWE world champion was disappointing. Roman Reigns may have kept the gear and music from the old Shield days, but ironically, it's Ambrose who cannot escape his past. His best feuds are always with his old Shield mates, and he's using a nontechnical, brawling style despite his capability to do far more, He's hobbled by the PG Era, which prevents him from fully embracing the hardcore nature of his character.

His storyline motivations are gone. Shane McMahon and Daniel Bryan are both babyface authority figures. Seth Rollins and Reigns are both on Raw. Ambrose is still a main event guy, but he has no personal stake with any of the people he's fighting against. Bizarrely, he's the least important part of this Triple Threat despite being the recently deposed world champion.

And then there's AJ Styles. He's smaller than your typical WWE Superstar, but more critically, he's not a homegrown talent. He made his bones in Japan, not in OVW or NXT. It seems unlikely that such a person would be vaulted to the top of the promotion. And yet, here we are. 

This New Era is one where smaller, more unconventional guys have a shot at gold. Styles is the perfect standard-bearer for this newer, leaner, athletic style (as was Finn Balor before he got injured). Styles can grapple. He can fly. He can talk. And he's an excellent representative face for the company, especially if WWE continues its global expansion into Asia.

Expect Styles to go over, Cena to head out to Hollywood and Ambrose to bump down to the midcard, where he probably belonged to begin with. The question isn't who's winning on Sunday. The question is who Styles is fighting at Survivor Series for the title.