Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Miami Dolphins (1-3) are still scheduled to host the Tennessee Titans (1-3) this weekend despite the state of Florida preparing for Hurricane Matthew's arrival. The Dolphins are small favorites for the game with extra rest after losing to the Cincinnati Bengals 22-7 on Thursday night in Week 4.

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.5-21.3 Dolphins (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans have played better away from home lately, earning their lone victory of this season in Week 2 against the Detroit Lions 16-15 as six-point road underdogs. For whatever reason, Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota seems to play better outside of Nashville, as two of the team's three wins a year ago during his rookie campaign also happened on the road.

The Titans have lost each of their last two games overall by just a touchdown, so they should be able to stay close against a struggling Miami team.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Tennessee is just 1-11-1 against the spread in its last 13 games versus teams with losing records, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database, which is about the only positive for the Dolphins being under .500 at this point.

The extended time off should also help Miami make the right adjustments under first-year head coach Adam Gase and allow some of the team's ailing players to get healthier, particularly running back Arian Foster, who has a shot to return after missing the last two games with a sore hamstring and groin.

Regardless, the offense just needs to play better and score more points in order for the Dolphins to win and cover the small number in this spot.

Smart pick

The betting trends for both teams are ugly, so taking a side here really comes down to the lesser of two evils. The Titans will have less to deal with off the field and have proven they can win in Florida, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42-14 as three-point road dogs in last year's season opener.

With Miami sitting at 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite, look for Tennessee to come through with a cover in a close game.

Betting trends

The Titans are 2-6 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.

The Titans are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with losing records.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.