New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Fresh off an early bye last weekend, the Green Bay Packers return to action on Sunday night looking to tally consecutive straight-up wins for the first time since Week 15 of last season as they host the slumping New York Giants.

The Packers reversed a dismal 3-5 SU and 2-6 against the spread run by dominating early in a 34-27 win over Detroit two weeks ago, covering as 6.5-point chalk.

New York has dropped two straight since opening the 2016 campaign with a pair of wins. The Giants were smothered by a tough Vikings defense in last week's 24-10 loss in Minnesota, failing to cover as 3.5-point underdogs, extending their ATS winless streak to six.

Point spread: The Packers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.7-15.6 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Giants can cover the spread

The Giants struggled against a second-ranked Vikings defense that has surrendered just 12.5 points per game but still maintain one of the top offenses in the NFL, ranked sixth overall and fourth in passing with over 288 yards per game. That is good news against a Packers pass defense that has allowed over 300 yards in three of its past four games.

While SU wins have been hard to come by, New York has consistently kept games close with six of its past nine losses coming by five or fewer points. That has contributed to the Giants' solid performance when pegged as underdogs of seven or more points, going 15-5 ATS in their past 20.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

An early bye may have been a blessing in disguise for a Packers defense plagued by injury. Several key personnel have returned to practice despite remaining questionable for Sunday, including linebacker Clay Matthews, whose return would reinforce a Green Bay defense that wilted against a second-half assault by Detroit in Week 3.

More important is the continued strong play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has minimized the Packers' defensive deficiencies with seven touchdown passes against just one pick through the squad's first three games of the season.

Smart pick

The Giants have had Green Bay's number in recent meetings, posting three straight SU wins, covering in four straight and claiming victory in three of their last four visits to Lambeau.

Historically, the Packers have been a solid bet when favored by seven points or more on home turf, but they posted outright losses in their past two and are 2-3 SU in their past five overall at home, tallying 16 or fewer points in each of those losses.

Look for the Packers to outlast New York but once again fail to cover as betting favorites.

Betting trends

The Packers are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games in October.

The Packers are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games at home after a win at home.

The total has gone over in four of the Giants' last five games in Week 5.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.