ALDS 2016: Blue Jays vs. Rangers Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers are sure to keep things civil in a friendly American League Division Series rematch that won't fester any animosity on either side.
Just kidding. Tensions are sure to brew in this bitter rivalry.
Last year, Toronto survived a memorable five-game ALDS over Texas in a bizarre, ugly Game 5 during which fans littered the field with trash after a controversial, yet accurately called play. Texas' players, however, were more upset over Jose Bautista brashly discarding his bat after ending their season with a game-winning home run.
That animosity boiled into the 2016 season, when he slid past the second-base bag into Rougned Odor in May. The Rangers infielder retaliated by punching him in the jaw. Think both teams will remember that?
Let's not get too bogged down in their bad blood. Lost in all the craziness, the Blue Jays and Rangers competed in an enthralling series last fall. While the Rangers won an AL-best 95 games in 2016, they did so with a mild plus-eight run differential. Sporting a plus-93 run margin, the 89-73 Blue Jays have a legitimate case for entering as favorites on the road.
Then again, Texas' offense is rolling into Thursday's Game 1 with help from some key midseason acquisitions. Let's run down each position to see which squad has the edge.
Catcher
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Starters: Jonathan Lucroy vs. Russell Martin
Jonathan Lucroy could be playing in the other ALDS matchup right now. Luckily for the Rangers, he blocked a trade to the AL Central champion Cleveland Indians before the Milwaukee Brewers instead sent him to Texas.
Since the deadline deal, Lucroy is batting .276/.345/.539 over 47 games. He has taken full advantage of his new home, belting 11 of his 24 home runs since the move. Add his excellent receiving skills behind the plate, and the 30-year-old led all catchers with 4.6 WAR.
Russell Martin is no slouch offensively or defensively, but he posted a 99 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), his lowest rate since 2012. He continued to exhibit a keen batting eye with a 12.0 walk rate, but his slugging percentage cratered from last year's .458 to .398 despite going deep 20 times.
In 28 September and October games, including Tuesday's play-in bout, the 33-year-old is hitting .154 (14-for-91) with 30 strikeouts. Martin is still an above-average catcher, but Lucroy is an elite option who gets the easy nod.
Edge: Lucroy
First Base
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Starters: Mitch Moreland vs. Edwin Encarnacion
Wherever Edwin Encarnacion qualifies, he gets the edge.
Usually Toronto's designated hitter, the slugger has increasingly spent more time at first base. Including Tuesday's American League Wild Card Game, he has spent 18 of his last 22 games on the diamond.
The added responsibilities have not hindered his offense. On the contrary, he finished the season with a .933 OPS when playing first. That mark would rise if counting his walk-off home run against Zach Britton Ubaldo Jimenez to vanquish the Baltimore Orioles.
Over the past five seasons, only Chris Davis has crushed more home runs (197) than Encarnacion's 193. Following Tuesday's heroics, he has gone deep 20 times since the All-Star break.
Apologies to Mitch Moreland, but this is clearly no contest. Despite procuring 22 homers, his wRC+ plummeted from 117 in 2015 to 87. He chased a whopping 34.1 percent of offerings off the plate, causing a 23.5 strikeout percentage and .233 average.
The Texas lefty fared better against southpaws this season, but treat that success as a small-sample anomaly. He should take a seat for Ryan Rua when J.A. Happ starts for Toronto.
Edge: Encarnacion
Second Base
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Starters: Rougned Odor vs. Devon Travis
At first glance, Odor would appear the runaway winner over Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis. The 22-year-old blasted 33 home runs and 14 steals. That's great for his fantasy baseball investors, but his .296 on-base percentage is far less appealing.
In early September, he had double the home runs to walks before boosting his final tally to a still subpar 19. While nobody is mistaking Travis for Joey Votto with his 4.6 walk rate, he hits for more contact and fields his position better than his Texas counterpart.
After starting his season in late May due to a shoulder injury, Travis hit .300/.352/.454 with 11 long balls over 432 plate appearances. The late start didn't stop him from accruing more WAR (2.4) than Odor (2.1).
He gave Toronto a scare by re-injuring his shoulder last week, but he bounced back to notch a game-winning home run during Sunday's season finale against the Boston Red Sox. Although both are rising studs, Travis offers a more well-rounded arsenal than Odor.
Edge: Travis
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Shortstop
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Starters: Elvis Andrus vs. Troy Tulowitzki
This one should be easy. Before getting passed by a shipment of superstar shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki ruled the position with the Colorado Rockies. Now he's a quietly productive veteran.
There's one major bright spot to his first full season in Toronto: He stayed on the field for 131 games and 544 plate appearances, both his highest clips in five years. He also, however, recorded a career-low .318 on-base percentage, and a .254 average would have represented a new low if not for last year's .250 mark.
Nevertheless, the 31-year-old still provides above-average power and defense at a spot where such a combination is tough to find.
Bizarrely enough, Elvis Andrus nearly bested the Blue Jays star in slugging percentage, posting a career-high .439 rate to Tulowitzki's substandard .443. While his eight homers count for a personal best, the Rangers shortstop made his power mark with 31 doubles and seven triples.
He also exploded down the stretch, batting .314/.380/.462 after the All-Star break. Such production could make him the worthy choice here, but such power is not the norm for a typical singles hitter. Also giving Tulo the edge, he enters a series against a potentially lefty-heavy Rangers staff sporting a .315/.398/.545 slash line against southpaws.
Edge: Tulowitzki
Third Base
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Starters: Adrian Beltre vs. Josh Donaldson
It's unfair to pick one of these terrific third basemen. Adrian Beltre fortified his spot in Cooperstown by hitting .300/.358/.521 with 32 homers at 37 years old. Josh Donaldson, however, is the reigning AL MVP who may take home the hardware again.
Mike Trout had a better year and should be winning his fifth trophy in as many years, but that's a debate for another day. Voters who disqualify him because of the Los Angeles Angels' futility leave themselves a tough choice between Donaldson and Boston's Mookie Betts. (Unless they ignore defense entirely and select David Ortiz.)
Offensively, Donaldson has virtually replicated his MVP campaign, upping last year's 154 wRC+ by one point. He amended slight dips in contact and power—only 37 home runs and a .549 slugging percentage—by enhancing his on-base percentage to .404.
Last year, both stars left Game 1's matchup with injuries. Yet Beltre, who has accrued over 600 plate appearances in each of the last five seasons, returned from a back strain that caused him to exit the opening game in tears.
Don't take this as a slight to Beltre, the second-best player in this series. The best just happens to man the hot corner for the other team.
Edge: Donaldson
Left Field
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Starters: Carlos Gomez vs. Ezequiel Carrera/Melvin Upton Jr.
Neither team has left field locked down. The returning Shin-Soo Choo creates a four-man logjam in Texas' outfield, possibly at the expense of rookie Nomar Mazara. As for Toronto, the struggling Melvin Upton Jr. has a taken a back seat to Ezequiel Carrera.
Either way, this is a spot for Texas to finally snag a win.
Floundering with the Houston Astros, Carlos Gomez found a second wind with Texas. After leaving Houston with a .210/.272/.322 slash line, he batted .284/.362/.543 over 33 resurgent games. His recent play resembles his MVP-caliber 2013 campaign in Milwaukee.
Carrera is enjoying a hot streak of his own, batting .359/.419/.538 in a limited September sampling. The No. 9 hitter on Tuesday, he went 2-for-4 with an RBI and two strikeouts. Ultimately, he's a 29-year-old reserve with a nearly devilish .665 OPS.
Let's also include Upton, who boasts an .874 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. As a result, he'll at least face ace Cole Hamels. Yet after hitting .190/.253/.304 in the second half, he's no more than a platoon play.
Gomez assembled a past track record of excellence before injuries forced a steep regression. Texas will trust the comeback and ride the hot hand, slotting him atop a ferocious batting order peaking at the perfect time.
Edge: Gomez
Center Field
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Starters: Ian Desmond vs. Kevin Pillar
They contribute in different ways, but Ian Desmond and Kevin Pillar delivered similarly excellent production in center field.
Desmond will draw more praise for his bat. Taking a one-year deal and moving from shortstop, he defied all reasonable expectations by batting .285/.335/.436 with 22 homers and 21 stolen bases.
Trout is the only other center fielder who registered a 20-20 season. He and Charlie Blackmon were the only ones to score more runs than Desmond's 107.
A .266/.303/.376 hitter with a below-average 80 wRC+, Pillar is nothing special at the plate. On the field, however, is an entirely different story. His 21.1 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) ranked second behind Adam Eaton, and he saved the third-most runs (21) behind Betts and Eaton.
Pillar hasn't homered since June 16, but Desmond has fallen off mightily from first-half production placing him in the early MVP picture. While the Blue Jays still receive elite defense from their Gold Glove front-runner, the Rangers need Desmond to turn around his .630 second-half OPS to justify employing him at a foreign position.
Edge: Pillar
Right Field
8 of 15
Starters: Nomar Mazara/Shin-Soo Choo vs. Jose Bautista
Picking the right-field representatives was tricky. Rangers manager Jeff Banister might defer to the veteran Choo, who returned to play three uneventful games with the division already in hand. Bautista spends more time as the designated hitter, but Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons threw him in right on Tuesday.
He shouldn't spend the entire series in the outfield, but let's stick with Toronto's wild-card arrangement. Limited to 116 games due to two disabled-list stints, Bautista batted a robust .236/.366/.452, all his worst rates over the past seven seasons. It's normal for a 35-year-old slugger to lose a step, but he showed some life with four bombs over his final 11 regular-season contests.
Mazara, a highly touted 21-year-old rookie, showed glimpses of a promising future. Called into action in early April with Choo sidelined, he hit a respectable .266/.320/.419 with 20 homers. Not bad for a newcomer, but accounting for his hitter-friendly ballpark and a season of inflated offense, a 94 wRC+ graded him as a slightly below-average offensive contributor.
Hitless since September 21, Mazara may get benched in favor of the rusty Choo. Either way, the advantage goes to a hungry Bautista, who's looking healthy and ready to redeem a middling season right before hitting the open market.
Edge: Bautista
Designated Hitter
9 of 15
Starters: Carlos Beltran vs. Michael Saunders
Yet another summer acquisition paying major dividends, Carlos Beltran gets another chance to polish an incredible postseason career marred by one plate appearance.
Yes, he struck out looking to end Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series. It happens. Adam Wainwright is a good pitcher who threw a good pitch. This is coming from a New York Mets fan: Move on.
In 223 career postseason plate appearances, Beltran boasts a beautiful .332/.441/.674 line with 16 homers. Fun fact: He hit three of them during the 2006 NLCS, two years after making a fortune with a 20-hit, eight-homer postseason run for the Astros.
The 39-year-old is no longer a five-tool superstar, but he can still rake. This season, he hit .295/.337/.513 with 29 dingers, his best tally since 2012.
That wouldn't have mattered against Encarnacion or Bautista, but he faces off against Michael Saunders instead. The 29-year-old was in the midst of a career year before stumbling to the finish line with a .638 second-half OPS.
Saunders still finished with a 117 wRC+, but Beltran has a far deeper track record in both the regular season and playoffs.
Edge: Beltran
Games 1 and 5 Starting Pitchers
10 of 15
Starters: Cole Hamels vs. Marco Estrada
Per Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, Hamels will take the mound for Game 1, followed by Yu Darvish. The rest remains to be determined, but Banister addressed the chance of using Hamels on short rest. Per Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, Toronto will turn to Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman in that order.
Before skipping to the next slide, Estrada arguably had a better season than Hamels.
Although Happ absorbed all the win-column luck, the 9-9 Estrada tallied a 3.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP to Hamels' 3.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Their respective fielding independent pitching (FIP) rates of 4.15 and 3.98, however, closed the gap while suggesting both benefited from some fortune on batted balls.
For the second straight year, Toronto's 33-year-old righty prevented runs far better than his FIP would predict. How did he do this? By recording routine outs aside from whiffs and grounders. There's no batted ball easier to field than a pop-up, and he has induced an MLB-best 16.8 infield-fly rate.
The Blue Jays' righty-heavy lineup hasn't demolished southpaws like usual, but Hamels has an ERA two runs higher (4.40) at home. He also surrendered 26 runs over his final six starts. Expect them to turn a close contest over to the relievers, but a better track record (and Happ not starting the opener) still gives Hamels the tiny advantage.
Edge: Hamels
Game 2 Starting Pitchers
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Starters: Yu Darvish vs. J.A. Happ
Not healthy for last year's ALDS encounter, Darvish hasn't pitched a postseason game since 2012. Despite missing over a year recovering from Tommy John surgery, he's once again a strikeout machine.
The 30-year-old fanned 132 batters over 100.1 innings, and opponents whiffed on 12.6 percent of his pitches. Recording a 3.09 FIP in 17 outings, he's the team's premier starter on a per-innings basis. He also needs to be on top of his game to last seven frames.
A pick for Happ shouldn't stem from his 20 victories. It is, however, justifiable given his 3.18 ERA. Given his 3.96 FIP and 20.5 strikeout percentage, he's probably also pitching a bit above his head. Beltre, Lucroy and Desmond particularly up their games against left-handed pitchers.
Although not the bawdiest option, Happ gets the job done. He has a far higher floor, but Darvish still flaunts a significantly higher ceiling.
Edge: Darvish
Game 3 Starting Pitchers
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Projected Starters: Colby Lewis vs. Aaron Sanchez
After Hamels and Darvish, Texas' rotation gets bleak. Banister must choose between the likes of Colby Lewis, Martin Perez, A.J. Griffin and Derek Holland.
Toronto, however, will trot out the American League's ERA leader. Instead of moving to the bullpen or shutting down early, Sanchez logged 192 innings, 99.2 more than the previous year. As a result, Gibbons won't put the 24-year-old in a position to pitch twice in five games.
Sanchez also sported a 2.48 ERA on the road compared to a 3.74 home clip, an unusual split for a young starter. Neither park is kind to pitchers, so Gibbons was right not to let those numbers guide his decision.
He erased any fatigue concerns by yielding one run in each of his final three starts while amassing 21 strikeouts. Lewis, meanwhile, is a 37-year-old with a 4.81 FIP, 5.65 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and extreme fly-ball tendencies. The Blue Jays batters will relish the opportunity to swing for the Rogers Centre's reachable fences.
Edge: Sanchez
Game 4 Starting Pitchers
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Projected Starters: Martin Perez vs. Marcus Stroman
If they're in a hole, the Rangers can turn to Hamels on three days' rest. He has never made a start on such a shortened window, so that's only an emergency option if they're down 2-1. This would also force the oft-injured Darvish to take Game 5 on short rest, so it's more likely Banister gives the ball to Perez.
No qualified starter netted a worse strikeout-minus-walks percentage than Perez's 3.2. Yet because of a 53.2 ground-ball rate and dominance against fellow lefties, he managed a passable 4.39 ERA.
The Blue Jays will counter with eight righties by sitting Carrera or Saunders for Upton. Opposing right-handed hitters rocked him for a .785 OPS, and Perez finished 2016 with a 5.78 ERA on the road. On second thought, Texas might need to use Hamels in an elimination scenario.
Stroman, meanwhile, is a more than capable No. 4 starter. With the others having all pitched over the season's final games, he was left to allow two runs over six strong innings on Tuesday. Last year, he limited Texas to six runs (five earned) in two ALDS starts.
The 25-year-old had somewhat of a letdown season, but the Blue Jays can trust him to keep the game in order.
Edge: Stroman
Bullpen
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Projected Rangers Bullpen
- Sam Dyson, RHP (Closer)
- Matt Bush, RHP
- Jake Diekman, LHP
- Tony Barnette, RHP
- Jeremy Jeffress, RHP
- Alex Claudio, LHP
- Derek Holland, LHP
Projected Blue Jays Bullpen
- Roberto Osuna, RHP (Closer)
- Jason Grilli, RHP
- Joe Biagini, RHP
- Brett Cecil, LHP
- Ryan Tepera, RHP
- Aaron Loup, LHP
- Francisco Liriano, LHP
As Orioles manager Buck Showalter showed on Tuesday, an elite bullpen only helps when the skipper utilizes his best options.
Then again, neither Texas nor Toronto can unleash a Britton on the other. In fact, the Rangers (4.40) and Blue Jays (4.11) have by far the worst bullpen ERAs of all postseason participants.
The Blue Jays also lost a pivotal late-inning option when Joaquin Benoit tore his calf charging the field to partake in a scrum with the New York Yankees last week. The veteran had allowed one run in 23.2 innings since arriving from the Seattle Mariners.
Given its 36-11 record in one-run games, one would think Texas wields a killer bullpen. Not exactly. Only the Angels bullpen amassed a lower K/9 than the Rangers' 7.33. The group, however, is also the best at generating ground balls behind closer Sam Dyson and midseason pickup Jeremy Jeffress.
Toronto pulled closer Roberto Osuna from Tuesday's game, but Gibbons assured reporters, per the Toronto Star's Brendan Kennedy, that it was nothing serious.
"It wasn’t a big deal," Gibbons said. "[His shoulder] just tightened up on him. The smart thing to do was just get him out of there."
The deeper unit in light of Benoit's injury, Texas also pitched better down the stretch. Expect both teams to leak runs late, but the Rangers receive the nod.
Edge: Rangers
Series Prediction
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Simply rounding up the position-by-position scores (8-6 Toronto) does not offer a scientifically accurate method for predicting the series winner. None of those guys are facing their cohorts in one-on-one combat, and that includes the starting pitchers, who must worry more about the opposing hitters as well as their own defense and bullpen.
This exercise does confirm that these teams are more evenly matched than their records depict. The Rangers' run differential and close-game fortune screams for regression, but they didn't have Lucroy, Gomez, Beltran and Darvish all season. They also took a while to assemble the right relievers to trust. (Don't expect to see Shawn Tolleson anywhere near this series.)
The cop-out prediction: This high-scoring series goes to five thrilling games for the second straight year. Any number of minuscule details could determine who prevails.
Going by the projected rotations and accompanying edges, Texas escapes with Hamels and the superior bullpen closing the door in Game 5 at home. Yet it's not that simple, especially with Donaldson, Encarnacion and Bautista swinging for the other team.
The Blue Jays once again crawl from behind to win a captivating shootout.
Prediction: Blue Jays in five games
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.
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